Methods of setting depth range with credibility of conductor for deepwater drilling based on probability statistics

Becasuse of the deep water depth and long riser of deepwater drilling, the stability of subsea wellhead is threatened. Meanwhile, the setting depth of conductor directly affects the mechanical stability of subsea wellhead. Through analyzing the impact of different factors on the setting depth of conductor, we found that the bearing capacity growth factor of subsea soil has a great influence on the setting depth of conductor. However, the coefficient is a regional and empirical constant, which seriously affects the accuracy and reliability of the results. In this paper, probability statistics and geostatistics methods are employed to count the bearing capacity growth factor of target point's adjacent wells, as well as transplant and predict the target point through differential arithmetic, which can obtain the predictive value of target point's coefficient containing probability information. Finally, we can obtain the setting depth range with credibility of conductor. This is conducive to designers to calculate the setting depth of conductor with other uncertain factors taken into account, and reasonably control the potential risks.     

The interaction triangle as a tool for understanding stakeholder interactions in marine ecosystem based management

Expectations about ecosystem based management (EBM) differ due to diverging perspectives about what EBM should be and how it should work. While EBM by its nature requires trade-offs to be made between ecological, economic and social sustainability criteria, the diversity of cross-sectoral perspectives, values, stakes, and the specificity of each individual situation determine the outcome of these trade-offs. The authors strive to raise awareness of the importance of interaction between three stakeholder groups (decision makers, scientists, and other actors) and argue that choosing appropriate degrees of interaction between them in a transparent way can make EBM more effective in terms of the three effectiveness criteria salience, legitimacy, and credibility. This article therefore presents an interaction triangle in which three crucial dimensions of stakeholder interactions are discussed: (A) between decision makers and scientists, who engage in framing to foster salience of scientific input to decision making, (B) between decision makers and other actors, to shape participation processes to foster legitimacy of EBM processes, and (C) between scientists and other actors, who collaborate to foster credibility of knowledge production. Due to the complexity of EBM, there is not one optimal interaction approach; rather, finding the optimal degrees of interaction for each dimension depends on the context in which EBM is implemented, i.e. the EBM objectives, the EBM initiator’s willingness for transparency and interaction, and other context-specific factors, such as resources, trust, and state of knowledge.     

采用不同方法预计矿井涌水量对比

针对矿井涌水量难于准确预测这一问题，以研究四川某煤矿延深水平涌水量预测为基础，应用传统方法与现代方法相结合来预计矿井涌水量，聚几种方法之所长，探索提高预计涌水量的可信度，为设计、生产部门提供科学依据．     

Addressing policy credibility problems for low-carbon investment

A combination of characteristics of the climate change problem make the credibility of future commitments crucial for climate policy: the long lifetimes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and of energy infrastructure requires a long term perspective; the inherently global aspects of the atmosphere as a public good requires international coordination; decarbonizing the global economy depends on the incentives for investment in innovation; and persistent uncertainty— both about the problem and potential solutions—necessitate adapting to new information. Even in a first best world, climate policy design needs to navigate a tradeoff between making commitments that are sufficiently credible to stimulate transformation and retaining flexibility to adjust. The goal of this paper is to use the experience in other policy areas to assemble a broad set of possible remedies for addressing credibility problems and then characterize the advantages and disadvantages of each. We first review the theory and practice of addressing credibility problems in monetary, fiscal, and trade policy. From this we derive a taxonomy of four policy design categories. As a preliminary example, we then apply this framework to assess the credibility of climate targets made by selected developing countries as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Finally, we evaluate the items in the taxonomy as policy alternatives in terms of their effects on incentives for investment in low-carbon technology.