Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

稀有金属矿物溶解度对花岗伟晶岩成矿作用的制约

花岗伟晶岩型矿床是稀有金属矿床重要的类型之一。在花岗伟晶岩中,稀有金属元素Li、Be、Nb和Ta主要以独立矿物的形式存在,前人对稀有金属独立矿物在硅酸盐熔体中的溶解度及其影响因素展开了系统研究。本文综合分析了已有的实验数据,其结果表明,影响稀有金属独立矿物溶解度最为重要的2个参数是温度(T)和铝饱和指数(ASI)。因此本文建立了稀有金属独立矿物,尤其是铌锰矿和钽锰矿溶解度,与温度(T)和铝饱和指数(ASI)之间的定量关系: lg [w(Li)/10^-6]=-0.37×[1 000/(T/K)]+4.56,R²=0.44 lg [w(BeO)/10^-6]=-4.21×[1 000/(T/K)]+6.86,R²=0.91 lg [K_sp(Nb)/(mg²·kg^-2)]=-(2.86±0.14)×ASI_(Mn+Li)-(4.95±0.31)×[1 000/(T/K)]+(4.20+0.28),R²=0.86 lg [K_sp(Ta)/(mg²·kg^-2)]=-(2.46±0.11)×ASI_(Mn+Li)-(4.86±0.30)×[1 000/(T/K)]+(4.00+0.30),R²=0.80 式中,温度T为热力学温度,ASI_(Mn+Li)(ASI=Al₂O₃/(CaO+Na₂O+K₂O+Li₂O+MnO),摩尔分数比)和T的适用范围分别为0.6~1.2和1 073~1 373 K的范围内。上述公式为估算硅酸盐熔体中稀有金属含量提供了便利,为量化花岗伟晶岩成矿模型提供了基础。 稀有金属独立矿物溶解度随温度降低和铝饱和指数的增加而急剧降低,因此,在岩浆演化过程中,由岩浆侵位、分离结晶以及流体作用等因素引起的岩浆温度降低和铝饱和指数的增加,是导致稀有金属独立矿物结晶的主要机制。     

Verification and validation of a seismic response analysis code for framed structures using the ASI‐Gauss technique

In this report, the capabilities of the adaptively shifted integration (ASI)‐Gauss code in the analysis of the seismic responses of framed structures are verified and validated by comparing the results with detailed numerical simulations performed by the parallel finite element analysis code, E‐Simulator, and with experimental results obtained by E‐Defense. The numerical results obtained by both codes showed good agreement with the experimental results obtained by E‐Defense. Furthermore, seismic waves with unnaturally large magnitudes are applied to a high‐rise building model to demonstrate the ability of the ASI‐Gauss code to analyze the collapse behaviors of building frames. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrogenesis of the Nanling Mountains granites from South China: Constraints from systematic apatite geochemistry and whole-rock geochemical and Sr–Nd isotope compositions

The widespread Mesozoic granitoids in South China (135,300 km²) were emplaced in three main periods: Triassic (16% of the total surface area of Mesozoic granitoids), Jurassic (47%), and Cretaceous (37%). Though much study has been conducted on the most abundant Jurassic Nanling Mountains (NLM) granites, their rock affinities relative to the Triassic Darongshan (DRS) and Cretaceous Fuzhou–Zhangzhou Complex (FZC) granites which are typical S- and I-type, respectively, and the issue of their petrogenetic evolution is still the subject of much debate. In this study, we discuss the petrogenesis of NLM granites using apatite geochemistry combined with whole-rock geochemical and Sr–Nd isotope compositions. Sixteen apatite samples from six granite batholiths, one gabbro, and three syenite bodies in the NLM area were analyzed for their major and trace element abundances and compared with those collected from DRS (n = 7) and FZC (n = 6) granites. The apatite geochemistry reveals that Na, Si, S, Mn, Sr, U, Th concentrations and REE distribution patterns for apatites from DRS and FZC granites basically are similar to the S and I granite types of the Lachlan Fold Belt (Australia), whereas those from NLM granites have intermediate properties and cannot be correlated directly with these granite types. According to some indications set by the apatite geochemistry (e.g., lower U and higher Eu abundances), NLM apatites appear to have formed under oxidizing conditions. In addition, we further found that their REE distribution patterns are closely related to aluminum saturation index (ASI) and Nd isotope composition, rather than SiO₂ content or degree of differentiation, of the host rock. The majority of apatites from NLM granites (ASI = 0.97–1.08 and εNd(T) = −8.8 to −11.6) display slightly right-inclined apatite REE patterns distinguishable from the typical S- and I-type. However, those from few granites with ASI > 1.1 and εNd(T) < −11.6 have REE distribution patterns (near-flat) similar to DRS apatites whereas those from granites with ASI < 1.0 and εNd(T) > −6.6 and gabbro and syenite are similar to FZC apatites (strongly right-inclined). In light of Sr and Nd isotope compositions, magmas of NLM intrusives, except gabbro and syenite, and few granites with εNd(T) > −8, generally do not involve a mantle component. Instead, they fit with a melt derived largely from in situ melting or anatexis of the pre-Mesozoic (mainly Caledonian) granitic crust with subordinate pre-Yanshanian (mainly Indosinian) granitic crust. We suggest that an application, using combined whole-rock ASI and εNd(T) values, is as useful as the apatite geochemistry for recognizing possible sources for the NLM granites.     

基于全天空图像的极光活动变化检测方法研究

面对日积月累产生的海量极光数据,快速发现极光现象的发生及活动特征是研究极光的物理机制及相关动力学过程的首要问题,它为研究极光现象提供有效的自动化分析手段,从而能够提供充足而有效的事件用于统计学分析.因为太阳风是等离子体,它有着磁流体力学的特征,本文采用流体力学的连续性方程对极光运动进行建模,提取全天空极光图像序列的运动场,对极光活动进行表征,进而构造极光活动变化曲线,从而有效的检测出极光活动的变化.该方法的优势在于,基于运动场的表征方法能够有效反映极光活动的二维形态和运动特征,生成的极光活动变化曲线可以准确地指示极光发生、变化和消失的时间,为进一步研究极光的活动周期及相关物理变化奠定基础.     

北极海冰密集度动态系点值ASI反演算法研究

海冰密集度是极区海冰监测的重要因素,使用AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System) 89GHz数据ASI反演算法得到的海冰密集度是目前能够获得的分辨率最高的微波数据.在以前的算法中往往使用固定的系点值,本研究实现了动态系点值ASI (the Arctic Radiation And Turbulence Interaction Study (ARTIST) Sea Ice)算法,更重要的是在统计开阔水系点值的时候消除了云对系点值的影响,使得纯水系点值更接近真实状况.得到2010年平均的开阔水和海冰的系点值分别为50.8K和7.8K,通过每天的系点值得到的反演方程在低密集度区增大了海冰密集度,在高密集冰区减小了海冰密集度,从而在一定程度上改善了微波数据的反演准确度.通过和北极区域选取40幅不受云影响的MODIS 500m分辨率宽频大气层顶反照率(broadband TOA albedo)计算的海冰密集度进行了比较验证.结果显示,40个个例中,95%本文的平均差异比使用固定系点值算法产品的小,而且75%的均方根差异比使用固定系点值算法产品的小.     

采用Voronoi网格模型实现空间数据的精确校正

利用Voronoi网络模型对空间数据进行校正,能很好地处理误差分布的空间随机性和不确定性。“最近邻近内插法”和“面积窃用插值法”均在误差更正中发挥很好的效用,“面积窃用插值法”充分考虑到误差控制点的空间拓扑关系,其校正精度不错,但时间复杂度较高,而“最近邻近内插法”的算法简便,也有较好的校正精度。     

面向福祉和公平的需求侧减排路径、潜力与政策

需求侧减排是协同实现碳中和目标与民生福祉、社会公平改善的重要抓手,也是以“人”为中心连接不同可持续发展目标的关键纽带。IPCC第六次评估报告首次独立成章（第五章）介绍应对气候变化的需求侧解决方案。报告将需求侧减排与福祉、公平等目标关联起来,依循“避免-转变-改进（ASI）”的战略框架,梳理了需求侧的减排措施和减排潜力;揭示了社会文化、心理活动、技术水平和基础设施等因素对需求侧减排的关键驱动作用,指出多种驱动因素之间相互依赖,呈现叠加效应;明确了激发需求侧减排的动力和能力需要科学的行为干预和政策设计以推动系统性变革。文中对该章主要结论做扼要解读,同时就该章节对中国的相关研究和政策启示展开讨论。     

Acoustic imaging of an inhomogeneous sediment matrix

This paper presents and applies a new acoustic imaging approach to quantitatively determine geophysical parameters of complex inhomogeneous sediment layers. The concept is called an Acoustic Sub-seabed Interrogator or ASI and it is based on optimising the criteria of temporal and spatial resolution and of coherence by utilizing broadband, narrow beam calibrated sources and fixed receivers on a stationary platform.The ASI concept was experimentally tested over a complex pseudo-glacial till built at a scale of 20:1. Compressional velocity, attenuation losses and thickness values were easily attained using the ASI's coherent spatial scanning approach and through a discrete application of the Hilbert transform in the post processing of data. The simulations provided indepth insight into the model's physical and spatial variations and by statistical distribution emphasized the depositional processes involved in creating the layer. It is believed that the fundamental internal information elucidated by the ASI for the pseudo-till structure and illustrated in the resultant acoustic core cannot be attained using current marine geophysical and geotechnical techniques.     

1961-2017年华北区域大气自净能力变化特征及其影响因素分析

基于华北区域80个国家地面气象观测站资料,采用大气自净能力指数(ASI)分析了 1961-2017年华北区域大气自净能力的气候分布特征及长期变率;用MK和MT法及Morlet小波对ASI进行了突变检验和能量谱分析;结合ASI的REOF空间载荷场分布特征,将华北区域进行分区,并研究了气象要素与华北区域及各分区的可能联系;...