PREDICTING MARTIAN AND VENUSIAN METEOR SHOWER ACTIVITY

Based on the number of planet-approaching cometary orbits at Mars and Venus relative to the Earth, there should be ample opportunities for observing meteor activity at those two planets. The ratio of planet-approaching Jupiter family comets (JFCs) at Mars, Earth, and Venus is 4:2:1 indicating that JFC-related outbursts would be more frequent at Mars than the Earth. The relative numbers of planet-approaching Halley-type comets (HTCs) implies that the respective levels of annual meteor activity at those three planets are similar. We identify several instances where near-comet outbursts (Jenniskens, P.: 1995, Astron. Astrophys. 295, 206–235) may occur. A possible double outburst of this type at Venus related to 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Padjusakova may be observable by the ESA Venus Express spacecraft in the summer of 2006. Similarly, the Japanese Planet-C Venus orbiter may observe an outburst related to 27P/Crommelin’s perihelion passage in July 2011. Several additional opportunities exist to observe such outbursts at Mars from 2019 to 2026 associated with comets 38P/Stephan-Oterma, 13P/Olbers and 114P/Wiseman-Skiff.     

Methane emission from coal and associated strata samples

Summary This article discusses methods for providing a reliable forecast of the gas-dynamic behaviour of coal seams and adjacent strata. It shows that the ash content of carbonaceous materials determines their sorptive capacity (a universally applicable expression is presented for calculating the methane content of a sample) whilst the rate of methane desorption is a function of the degree of geological disturbance, i.e. the number and distribution of the macropores and fractures in the sample. This effect becomes less important as the sample ash content increases and effectively disappears above a certain value for high permeability materials.The quantity sorption-kinetic characteristic is shown to be a reliable means for quantifying methane emission behaviour. Large variations in coal sorption-kinetic characteristics are shown to occur over short distances as the geological structure of the seam changes, both vertically and horizontally. Consequently, sorption-kinetic characteristics may be used to predict the general level of methane emission from the seam and to quantify the risk of outburst inherent in disturbed areas of coal seams.     

A numerical simulation of gas flow during coal/gas outbursts

Summary A model of the gas flow in airways during an instantaneous outburst of coal and gas is formulated and solved numerically using MacCormack's explicit finite-difference scheme. This model is based on the assumption that geological structures, in-situ stresses and high-gas-pressure gradients play important roles in initiating an outburst, with the gas content and gas-pressure gradients being the most dominant factors. The fluid-dynamic processes that occur after an outburst are computed by the numerical integration of the complete time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations. The mixture velocity, the density and the gas-concentration profiles in both time and space domains (immediately after an outburst) are presented. The global results are useful in gaining an improved understanding of gas-flow patterns during coal/gas outbursts and in determining the range of the disturbance so that effective methods of control can be developed.Nomenclature a speed of sound - C gas concentration (mass) - C _v specific heat at constant volume - C _p specific heat at constant pressure - CFL Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy number - E total energy of the mixture - F the vector defined in Equation 27 - G the vector defined in Equation 28 - h entropy - h _i entropy at inlet - J _xi diffusion flux in the i-direction - k thermal conductivity of a gas - M Mach number - P pressure of a mixture (the partial pressure of gas) - P gas pressure - P _a atmospheric pressure     

赴英、法交流访问的情况报告

本文是对欧洲中期数值预报中心（ECMWF）的考察，访问和交流的情况报告，较为详尽地介绍了ECMWF的机构，业务及研究的历史发展情况，同时，结合对法国奥里机场气象台的考察简要介绍了法国气象机构和业务建设以及英法两国气象教育与人才培养的基本情况。     

煤岩的显微构造特征及其与瓦斯突出的关系——以南桐鱼田堡煤矿为例

煤瓦斯突出与煤岩显微结构构造密切相关。除部分显微结构构造与成煤阶段的环境等有关外,大部分都是构造变形的结果。因此,我们从构造变形类型和特点来划分煤岩显徽构造类型,既简便又利于应用。根据四川南桐鱼田堡煤矿4号及6号煤层的扫描电子显微镜研究,可将煤岩划分成5类:非构造煤、微裂隙煤、微劈理煤、碎裂构造煤和糜棱构造煤。文中详述了各类煤的特点,指出它们所代表的构造意义,并讨论了它们与瓦斯突出的关系。还特别提出糜棱构造煤的一系列塑性变形特征。得出结论:若其他条件均具备,有糜棱构造煤产出的地段,就可能是瓦斯突出最危险的部位。此外,根据观察煤瓦斯突出后的煤岩显微构造变化,提出有关瓦斯突出的过程,并探讨了煤瓦斯突出机理。在瓦斯突出过程中,已经历过塑性变形的煤岩又叠加了脆性变形,因而发生大量煤“粉尘”随突出而抛出。     

瓦斯突出地球物理场的响应特征

研究了瓦斯突出地球物理场的电磁波和弹性波响应特征,其响应是构成瓦斯突出地球物理场的介质条件所表现出来的。关键层应力墙瓦斯突出机理认为,瓦斯突出煤层由关键层和伴随层构成。关键层和伴随层在空间的分布规律和相互作用体现在物理场的差异上,把关键层（或瓦斯突出煤体）作为地球物理场中的异常体进行研究是可以利用地球物理方法识别的。突出地球物理场响应特征的研究为从地球物理研究瓦斯突出预测理论和方法提供了科学思路。     

流星雷达测距精度的改进

针对目前流星雷达测距误差大的问题，本文提出了提高流星雷达测距精度的新方法，即提高采样速率，用相关分析确定回波脉冲参考点的方法。该方法使流星雷达的测距精度提高一个数量级，测距误差降到±１４ｍ，使流星雷达不仅可以用来观测研究流星，还可用于监测飞机、火箭的飞行等，扩大流星雷达的应用。     

Mass loss due to sputtering and thermal processes in meteoroid ablation

Conventional meteoroid theory assumes that the dominant mode of ablation (which we will refer to as thermal ablation) is by evaporation following intense heating during atmospheric flight. Light production results from excitation of ablated meteoroid atoms following collisions with atmospheric constituents. In this paper, we consider the question of whether sputtering may provide an alternative disintegration process of some importance. For meteoroids in the mass range from 10^-3 to and covering a meteor velocity range from 11 to , we numerically modeled both thermal ablation and sputtering ablation during atmospheric flight. We considered three meteoroid models believed to be representative of asteroidal ( mass density), cometary () and porous cometary () meteoroid structures. Atmospheric profiles which considered the molecular compositions at different heights were use in the sputtering calculations. We find that while in many cases (particularly at low velocities and for relatively large meteoroid masses) sputtering contributes only a small amount of mass loss during atmospheric flight, in some cases sputtering is very important. For example, a porous meteoroid at will lose nearly 51% of its mass by sputtering, while a asteroidal meteoroid at will lose nearly 83% of its mass by sputtering. We argue that sputtering may explain the light production observed at very great heights in some Leonid meteors. We discuss methods to observationally test the predictions of these computations. A search for early gradual tails on meteor light curves prior to the commencement of intense thermal ablation possibly represents the most promising approach. The impact of this work will be most dramatic for very small meteoroids such as those observed with large aperture radars. The heights of ablation and decelerations observed using these systems may provide evidence for the importance of sputtering.     

Meteor44 Video Meteor Photometry

Meteor44 is a software system developed at MSFC for the calibration and analysis of video meteor data. The photometric range of the (8 bit) video data is extended from a visual magnitude range of from 8 to 3 to from 8 to −8 for both meteors and stellar images using saturation compensation. Camera and lens specific saturation compensation coefficients are derived from artificial variable star laboratory measurements. Saturation compensation significantly increases the number of meteors with measured intensity and improves the estimation of meteoroid mass distribution. Astrometry is automated to determine each image's plate coefficient using appropriate star catalogs. The images are simultaneously intensity calibrated from the contained stars to determine the photon sensitivity and the saturation level referenced above the atmosphere. The camera's spectral response is used to compensate for stellar color index and typical meteor spectra in order to report meteor light curves in traditional visual magnitude units. Recent efforts include improved camera calibration procedures and long focal length "streak" meteor photometry. Meteor44 has been used to analyze data from the 2001, 2002 and 2003 MSFC Leonid observational campaigns as well as several lesser showers.