Conservation status of New Zealand freshwater fish, 2009

The threat status of 74 freshwater and estuarine fish present in New Zealand was determined. Fifty-one native taxa were ranked of which 67% were considered Threatened or At Risk. A single species was classified as Extinct, the New Zealand grayling, which has not been observed since the 1920s. Four taxa were classified in the highest threat category, Nationally Critical, and a further 10 taxa as Threatened (Nationally Endangered or Nationally Vulnerable). Twenty taxa were ranked in the At Risk group with the majority ranked as Declining. Endemic galaxiids (Galaxiidae) dominated the Threatened and At Risk taxa. The majority (68%) belonged to the Galaxias genus, comprising 81% of recognised taxa in this genus and all five species in the genus Neochanna were also ranked as Threatened or At Risk. In addition to 51 native taxa, a further three fish species were considered colonists and 20 introduced species were classified as naturalised, although two of these are considered rare. The majority of the Threatened species occur in the Canterbury and Otago regions where a suite of rare non-migratory galaxiids exist. Threat mechanisms that were identified as causal in the decline of freshwater fish species were the impact of introduced fish species, declining water quality, effects of water abstraction, loss of habitat via land-use change and land-use activities, and river modifications.     

最优TS评分方法在逐时降水订正中的初步应用及评估

使用2020年3—9月逐时更新的CMA广东短临3 km数值模式(CMA-GD(R3)模式)1～12 h逐小时降水量资料,利用最优TS评分订正方法(OTS)对逐小时降水量进行分级订正,并分别从整体和分类型降水过程预报订正效果进行了检验和对比评估。结果表明：从整体预报订正性能来看,通过OTS方法对CMA-GD(R3)模式订正后,对于≥1 mm/h及以上量级的降水,OTS均有较好的订正能力,并且随着雨强的增加,其TS评分的改善比率越大;同时,OTS可有效减少各个预报时效的漏报率和空报率,其中漏报率减小更加明显,表现出明显的湿偏差(空报偏多)。从三类暴雨过程逐时降水预报订正效果来看,通过OTS订正之后,对于≥1 mm/h的降水,OTS对三类暴雨类型均有正的订正能力。其中在0.1 mm、1 mm、10 mm、20 mm、35 mm、50 mm 6个量级上,季风型的逐时降水预报表现最好,6个量级的TS评分值分别为0.403、0.232、0.053、0.023、0.009和0.004;在5 mm量级上锋面型的逐时降水预报表现最优,其TS值为0.102。从改善效果来看,经过OTS订正后,在1 mm量级...     

Conservation status of New Zealand marine invertebrates, 2009

A re-evaluation of the threat status of New Zealand's marine invertebrates was undertaken in 2009, following earlier review of New Zealand's Threat Classification System and subsequent refinement of the national criteria for classifying threat of extinction to New Zealand's flora and fauna. Sufficient information was available to enable 295 marine invertebrate taxa to be fully evaluated and assigned to a national threat category. The 10 taxa at most risk of extinction (‘nationally critical’) were the giant seep clam Calyptogena sp., the primitive acorn barnacle Chionelasmus crosnieri, O'Shea's vent barnacle Volcanolepas osheai, the stalked barnacle Ibla idiotica, the four-blotched umbrella octopus Cirroctopus hochbergi, the roughy umbrella octopus Opisthoteuthis chathamensis, the giant squid Idioteuthis cordiformis, the large-egged polychaete Boccardiella magniovata and two gravel maggots, Smeagol climoi and Smeagol manneringi. The key threatening processes identified for marine invertebrates were fishing and land-use associated impacts such as sedimentation. We identified no taxa that had improved in threat status as a result of past or ongoing conservation management action, nor any taxa that had worsened in threat status because of known changes in their distribution, abundance or rate of population decline. We evaluated a small fraction of New Zealand's marine invertebrate fauna for their threat status. Many taxa remain ‘data deficient’ or unlisted. In addition to the most threatened taxa, we recommend these taxa and their habitats as priorities for further survey and monitoring.     

基于频率匹配法和最优TS评分法的降水预报订正效果对比

利用2020年1月1日—2023年1月2日ECMWF、NCEP模式降水预报资料和眉山地区降水观测资料,采用频率匹配法（Frequency Matching Method,FM）、最优TS评分法（Optimal Threat Score,OTS）对ECMWF和NCEP的模式降水预报进行订正,对比检验评分和预报个例,并验证两种方法的适用性。结果表明：FM、OTS订正明显改善了小雨空报和暴雨漏报,提高了晴雨预报准确率、小雨ETS评分、暴雨TS评分,且OTS优于FM;FM可能出现参考数据与实况数据有较大偏差的情况,从而影响订正效果,OTS则不受参考数据的影响;数值模式降水的预报偏度明显大于1或小于1时,FM、OTS订正效果越好;FM、OTS难以订正小雨漏报、暴雨空报,也难以对降水差值较大的空漏报或降水落区偏差进行订正。     

抚州市生态系统气象利用价值核算方法

采用抚州市2017—2021年各县（区）气温、降水、日照、风速等气象资料和年鉴统计资料,从气象角度对生态系统的 产品供给利用服务、调节服务和文化服务功能三方面建立生态系统气象利用价值核算方法。结果表明：1）抚州全市生态系 统气象利用价值为233亿元,约为全市年平均GDP 的15.3%。核算指标中,气象供给利用服务价值最高,为219.16亿元,占 总价值的 94.1%;其次为气象文化服务价值,为 12.83 亿元,占总价值的 5.5%。2）抚州市生态系统气象利用价值以临川区 61.16亿元最高,占全市的26.3%;广昌县8.82亿元最少,占全市的3.8%。研究结果可为地方政府和有关部门加强生态保护 规划和推进生态产品价值实现工作提供参考和依据。     

深圳翡翠市场的SWOT分析

深圳珠宝产业聚集区是中国内地最大的综合性珠宝首饰加工、制造与批发中心。近年来以万山工业区为中心逐渐形成翡翠批发市场,填补了深圳珠宝产业聚集区的空白。相对于广州、揭阳、平洲、四会等成熟翡翠市场来说,深圳翡翠市场仍属于一个新兴市场。对该翡翠市场进行了SWOT（即优势、劣势、机会与威胁）分析后认为,该市场的发展潜力巨大,但其竞争压力也十分严峻;同时,也为从业者正确认识该市场的环境态势、制定正确的经营策略、提高其竞争力、为深圳翡翠市场的健康、快速发展提供一定的指导。     

北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化预报系统性能检验和评估

针对高分辨率数值模式降水预报检验中存在的问题,探讨模式分辨率的改变对模式降水评分的影响。对同一区域人为改变测站疏密度,讨论测站的疏密对降水预报评分的影响,从检验结果来看,降水评分与模式预报的水平分辨率有较强的关联,对测站的疏密程度也有很明显的依赖性,测站的疏密度不同,评分的差距可能很大。

     

厦门湾中华白海豚：面临的威胁与保护对策

中华白海豚(Sousa chinensis)是国家一级重点保护水生哺乳动物,在我国主要分布于东南沿海的近岸及河口水域。厦门湾是中华白海豚重要栖息地之一,同时也是东南沿海经济较为发达的地区。自改革开放以来,厦门进行了高强度的海洋开发活动,对中华白海豚及其栖息地造成了较大影响。为了保护该物种及其栖息地,厦门市制定了一系列的保护措施,如建立自然保护区、跨区域协同管理、鱼类资源管护与增殖放流等,取得了较好成效。本研究总结了厦门湾中华白海豚所面临的主要威胁,以及为保护中华白海豚及其栖息地所采取的保护措施;分析了目前仍然存在的问题并提出改进建议,如保护区优化调整、加强执法监管、开展栖息地生态修复等,可为厦门湾及其他海域中华白海豚的保护与管理提供参考与借鉴。     

新疆213数值预报降水评价

利用2006年新疆107个测站的实况降水资料和T213模式的降水预报值,根据中短期天气预报质量检验办法中客观降水检验方法,对T213数值降水预报产品的24 h预报能力进行了分析检验,结果表明：（1）T213对新疆地区暴雨和大暴雨基本无预报能力。（2）T213在新疆区域对于小量和中量降水的整体预报能力北疆要明显好于南疆。（3）T213的预报能力存在一定的季节性,对弱降水过程预报能力较差。（4）从小量到大量降水,T213的空报率和漏报率都很高,整体预报效果不好。     

基于评分最优化的模式降水预报订正算法对比

使用2013年1月1日-2016年1月7日全国气象站观测资料,应用准对称混合滑动训练期,不改变雨带预报位置和形态,基于模式降水预报订正结果的TS评分最优化及ETS评分最优化,分别设计最优TS评分订正法（OTS）和最优ETS评分订正法（OETS）确定预报日各级降水订正系数,对2014-2015年降水数值预报进行分级订正,并与频率匹配法（FM）对比。结果表明:在24 h累积降水的多个预报时效订正中,无论是对欧洲中期天气预报中心、日本气象厅、美国国家环境预报中心和中国气象局的全球模式降水预报,还是对4个模式的简单多模式平均,OTS和OETS较FM在TS评分和ETS评分等传统降水检验指标上均更优秀,其中OTS在所有时效均能提高模式降水预报质量,为三者最优。在概率空间的稳定公平误差评分方面,OTS在各时效、各单模式及多模式平均等方面优势明显。在预报员对应参考时效上,OTS在24~168 h的24 h累积降水预报中的TS评分也优于主观预报。