Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

Spatial measurements of stream baseflow,a relevant method for aquifer characterization and permeability evaluation. Application to a hard‐rock aquifer,the Oman ophiolite

The structure, functioning and hydrodynamic properties of aquifers can be determined from an analysis of the spatial variability of baseflow in the streams with which they are associated. Such analyses are based on simple low‐cost measurements. Through interpreting the hydrological profiles (Q = f(A)) it is possible to locate the aquifer(s) linked to the stream network and to determine the type of interrelated flow, i.e. whether the stream drains or feeds the aquifer. Using an analytical solution developed for situations with a positive linear relationship, i.e. where the baseflow increases linearly with increasing catchment size, it is also possible to estimate the permeability of the aquifer(s) concerned at catchment scale. Applied to the hard‐rock aquifers of the Oman ophiolite, this method shows that the ‘gabbro’ aquifer is more permeable than the ‘peridotite’ aquifer. As a consequence the streams drain the peridotites and ‘leak’ into the gabbro. The hydrological profiles within the peridotite are linear and positive, and indicate homogeneity in the hydrodynamic properties of these formations at the kilometre scale. The permeability of the peridotite is estimated at 5 · 10^?7 to 5 · 10^?8 m/s. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of snow water equivalent using microwave radiometry over Arctic first‐year sea ice

The magnitude and spatial distribution of snow on sea ice are both integral components of the ocean–sea‐ice–atmosphere system. Although there exists a number of algorithms to estimate the snow water equivalent (SWE) on terrestrial surfaces, to date there is no precise method to estimate SWE on sea ice. Physical snow properties and in situ microwave radiometry at 19, 37 and 85 GHz, V and H polarization were collected for a 10‐day period over 20 first‐year sea ice sites. We present and compare the in situ physical, electrical and microwave emission properties of snow over smooth Arctic first‐year sea ice for 19 of the 20 sites sampled. Physical processes creating the observed vertical patterns in the physical and electrical properties are discussed. An algorithm is then developed from the relationship between the SWE and the brightness temperature measured at 37 GHz (55°) H polarization and the air temperature. The multiple regression between these variables is able to account for over 90% of the variability in the measured SWE. This algorithm is validated with a small in situ data set collected during the 1999 field experiment. We then compare our data against the NASA snow thickness algorithm, designed as part of the NASA Earth Enterprise Program. The results indicated a lack of agreement between the NASA algorithm and the algorithm developed here. This lack of agreement is attributed to differences in scale between the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and surface radiometers and to differences in the Antarctic versus Arctic snow physical and electrical properties. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Early Pleistocene Praetiglian and Ludhamian pollen stages in the North Sea Basin and their relationship to the marine isotope record

In this paper, the currently accepted correlation of the Early Pleistocene Ludhamian stage of England with the Tiglian‐A sub‐stage of the Netherlands is challenged. Recent investigations of Early Pleistocene marine North Sea deposits from a borehole near Noordwijk (the Netherlands) yielded evidence from molluscs, dinoflagellate cysts and sporomorphs for an alternation of warm‐temperate and arctic intervals within the Praetiglian and Tiglian stages. Marine equivalents of the terrestrial‐based pollen sub‐stages Tiglian A and B have been recognised in the upper part of the sequence. A Praetiglian age can be assigned to the lower part of the sequence on the basis of mollusc analysis. Within the Praetiglian, an alternation of warm and cold phases has been recognised from both the dinoflagellate cyst and molluscan records. Three cold phases within the Praetiglian are tentatively correlated with marine isotope stages (MIS) 96–100. The molluscan assemblages provide evidence for climate forcing of the sea level: highest sea levels are reached in the warm‐temperate intervals. Within the Praetiglian, an interval with an acme zone of the dinoflagellate cyst Impagidinium multiplexum, is correlated with the Ludhamian and tentatively linked to MIS 97 and/or MIS 96. The cold molluscan assemblages from the Noordwijk borehole include an acme zone of Megayoldia thraciaeformis, the first and only occurrence of this North Pacific bivalve in the North Sea Basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subtidal sea level and current variations in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay

Analyses of sea level and current-meter data using digital filters and a variety of statistical methods show a variety of phenomena related to non-local coastal forcing and local tidal forcing in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, a partially mixed estuary. Low-frequency variations in sea level are dominated by non-local variations in coastal sea level and also show a smaller influence from tidally induced fortnightly sea level variations. Low-frequency currents demonstrate a gravitational circulation which is modified by changes in tidal-current speed over the spring-neap tidal cycle. Transients in gravitational circulation induce internal oscillations with periods of two to four days.     

Sea ice characteristics between the middle Weddell Sea and the Prydz Bay, Antarctica during the austral summer of 2003

The antarctic sea ice was investigated upon five occasions between January 4 and February 15, 2003. The investigations included: (1) estimation of sea ice distribution by ship-based observations between the middle Weddell Sea and the Prydz Bay; (2) estimation of sea ice distribution by aerial photography in the Prydz Bay; (3) direct measurements of fast ice thickness and snow cover, as well as ice core sampling in Nella Fjord; (4) estimation of melting sea ice distribution near the Zhongshan Station; and (5) observation of sea ice early freeze near the Zhongshan Station. On average, sea ice covered 14.4% of the study area. The highest sea ice concentration (80%) was observed in the Weddell Sea. First-year ice was dominant (99.7%-99.8%). Sea ice distributions in the Prydz Bay were more variable due to complex inshore topography, proximity of the Larsemann Hills, and/or grounded icebergs. The average thickness of landfast ice in NeUa Fjord was 169.5 cm. Wind-blown snow redistribution plays an important role in affecting the ice thickness in Nella Fjord. Preliminary freezing of sea ice near the Zhongshan Station follows the first two phases of the pancake cycle.     

黄、渤海沿岸海冰测点代表性浅析

通过分析１９８０年以后的海冰资料和卫星云图照片，对黄、渤海沿岸１１个海冰测点的历史变迁进行了评述，浅析了测点的优劣及使用资料时应注意的事项。