基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

A note concerning the 2:1 and the 3:2 resonances in the asteroid belt

The dynamical behavior of asteroids inside the 2:1 and 3:2 commensurabilities with Jupiter presents a challenge. Indeed most of the studies, either analytical or numerical, point out that the two resonances have a very similar dynamical behavior. In spite of that, the 3:2 resonance, a little outside the main belt, hosts a family of asteroids, called the Hildas, while the 2:1, inside the main belt, is associated to a gap (the Hecuba gap) in the distribution of asteroids.In his search for a dynamical explanation for the Hecuba gap, Wisdom (1987) pointed out the existence of orbits starting with low eccentricity and inclination inside the 2:1 commensurability and going to high eccentricity, and thus to possible encounters with Mars. It has been shown later (Henrard et al.), that these orbits were following a path from the low eccentric belt of secondary resonances to the high eccentric domain of secular resonances. This path crosses a bridge, at moderate inclination and large amplitude of libration, between the two chaotic domains associated with these resonances.The 3:2 resonance being similar in many respects to the 2:1 resonance, one may wonder whether it contains also such a path. Indeed we have found that it exists and is very similar to the 2:1 one. This is the object of the present paper.     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

利用自回归模型检测地球极移重力效应

同时采用4个台站的国际超导重力仪长期连续重力观测资料和国际地球自转服务中心提供的同步地球自转参数，研究了极移引起的地球重力场变化特征。利用自回归模型估计了各序列的功率谱密度和积谱密度，结果表明极移导致的重力效应的主要能量集中在Chandler摆动和周年项附近，叠积后实际重力观测与极移重力信号理论值之间的差异分别为0．4％和3．9％，说明超导重力仪可有效监测极移导致的重力变化。     

行星磁场与卫星引力及其相对运动的统计关系

从知道某些天体具有磁场起，人们就对其磁场的起源提出种种解释，例如有电池说，转子说，化石说，发电机说等等。但由于这些学说都分别与某些观测事实相抵触而未被公认，因此星球磁场的起源一直是未能解决的命题。余先河先生提出，星球的磁场起源可能与所受的引力有关，行星的磁场强度正比于其所受卫星的引力；正比于卫星与行星的引力连线转动的相对角速度。本文对这两方面的命题分别进行了相关分析，得到其相关系数分别为：ｒ＝０．８４８１和ｒ＝０．８４２５，它们都在ａ＝０．０１的信度水平上相关。结果表明余新河关于行星磁场起源的设想是有基础的。本文还对其统计结果和可能机制进行了讨论。     

Porphyroblast inclusion-trail orientation data: eppure non son girate*!

Extensive examination of large numbers of spatially orientated thin sections of orientated samples from orogens of all ages around the world has demonstrated that porphyroblasts do not rotate relative to geographical coordinates during highly non-coaxial ductile deformation of the matrix subsequent to their growth. This has been demonstrated for all tectonic environments so far investigated. The work also has provided new insights and data on metamorphic, structural and tectonic processes including: (1) the intimate control of deformation partitioning on metamorphic reactions; (2) solutions to the lack of correlation between lineations that indicate the direction of movement within thrusts and shear zones, and relative plate motion; and (3) a possible technique for determining the direction of relative plate motion that caused orogenesis in ancient orogens.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。