中国公路泥石流研究

公路泥石流是指发育于公路沿线并对公路桥涵、路基路面及相应防护结构具有冲击毁损和淤埋破坏的病害类型。丰富的物源、具有焚风效应的气象条件以及泥石流沟轴线与区域新构造应力场主压应力方向一致等是形成大型泥石流的宏观背景。将泥石流概化为固、液两相流体,运用两相流理论、泥沙运动力学、Bingham流变方程和Bagnold颗粒相互作用试验结果等,初步建立了泥石流固-液分相流速计算方法、基于泥石流在防治结构表面及泥石流沟岸产生的冲击形迹建立的反求泥石流冲击力计算方法以及泥石流磨蚀力计算方法。开发了速流结构、泥石流隧道及翼型墩汇流结构等10余种防治技术,集成了拦-汇-排等多种综合治理模式。据此撰写了《公路泥石流防治工程设计、施工指南》。实施了60余个防治工程。效果显著。研究成果初步构建了公路泥石流理论及技术体系。     

重力斜导数方法在时间域中的理论模型与研究

Miller和Singh在1994年首次提出了斜导数(Tilt梯度)的定义,J.Derek Fairhead和Chris M.Green又于2004年在斜导数的基础上提出了Tilt梯度水平导数的概念。国内学者已对斜导数及斜导数水平导数展开研究,设定了多体模型、无限延伸倾斜脉模型、有限延伸倾斜台阶模型及埋深相同无限延伸垂直厚板及薄板模型,得出一些结论。针对一些地质体产状的判断,提出非绝对值斜导数水平导数的新概念,并应用于理论模型中验证,得出正确的结论。在上述理论模型基础上补充了断层模型和无限延伸倾斜台阶模型,应用非绝对值水平导数的理论解释地质体的产状,并对上述模型提出新的观点和看法。     

新产业区的形成机制及其与传统空间组织理论的关系

在新产业区概念和特征进行概括的基础上,归纳了产业区发展的一般过程,并重点对新产业区的形成机制及所具有的优势进行了探讨。地方化产业群及区域创新网络的形成是新产业区成熟的标志,知识外溢、经济外部性导致的收益递增,以及基于密切的内部联系引来交易成本的降低使新产业区获得了强大的经济竞争优势,新产业区的空间组织形式所具有的网络效应、创新效应和企业与地方文化的良好融合是经济竞争优势的根本。最后,对新产业区理论和传统的空间组织理论之间的关系进行了对比分析,总结了二者的之间的异同。     

Détermination expérimentale des paramètres équivalents d'un milieu poreux hétérogène en écoulements uniforme ou radial

Tracer tests are carried out in a heterogeneous porous medium that has a 3D correlated random distribution of the permeabilities. The fitting of numerical models provides the values of equivalent permeability and macrodispersivity characterizing a 2D homogeneous horizontal medium. Different flow configurations are studied: uniform, radial and pump and treat (doublet). The fitted parameter sets are independent of the flow type, except for the doublet. They are greater than the values predicted by stochastic theories, due to the small number of correlation lengths explored by the tracer and the limited extension of the experimental set-up. To cite this article: C. Danquigny, P. Ackerer, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Spatiotemporal estimation of snow depth using point data from snow stakes,digital terrain models,and satellite data

Snow availability in Alpine catchments plays an important role in water resources management. In this paper, we propose a method for an optimal estimation of snow depth (areal extension and thickness) in Alpine systems from point data and satellite observations by using significant explanatory variables deduced from a digital terrain model. It is intended to be a parsimonious approach that may complement physical‐based methodologies. Different techniques (multiple regression, multicriteria analysis, and kriging) are integrated to address the following issues: We identify the explanatory variables that could be helpful on the basis of a critical review of the scientific literature. We study the relationship between ground observations and explanatory variables using a systematic procedure for a complete multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression models are calibrated combining all suggested model structures and explanatory variables. We also propose an evaluation of the models (using indices to analyze the goodness of fit) and select the best approaches (models and variables) on the basis of multicriteria analysis. Estimation of the snow depth is performed with the selected regression models. The residual estimation is improved by applying kriging in cases with spatial correlation. The final estimate is obtained by combining regression and kriging results, and constraining the snow domain in accordance with satellite data. The method is illustrated using the case study of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southern Spain). A cross‐validation experiment has confirmed the efficiency of the proposed procedure. Finally, although it is not the scope of this work, the snow depth is used to asses a first estimation of snow water equivalent resources.     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

B模式产品业务应用价值的总结分析

在总结江苏省台近１０年ＭＯＳ预报业务效果的基础上，提示了Ｂ模式产品在省级台天气预报中的应用价值，包括产品对江苏的释用水平．释用经验和如何取得最大业务效益的途径。     

论空间数据挖掘和知识发现的理论与方法

首先分析了空间数据挖掘和知识发现（SMDKD）的内涵和外延；然后分别研究了用于SDMKD的概率论，证据理论，空间统计学，规则归纳，聚类分析，空间分析，模糊集，云理论，粗集，神经网络，遗传算法，可视化，决策树，空间在线数据挖掘等理论和方法及其进展；最后展望了SDMKD的发展前景。     

Improvements of Planetary Theories Over 6000 Years

Taking advantage of the JPL Long Ephemeris DE406 and of the semi-analytical solution for the planetary motions VSOP87, we make an approximation of the differences JPL–VSOP. The form of the approximation (arguments and Poisson expansions) is analogous to the time series of the theory. We improve the planetary solution VSOP87 in two directions: a better fit of the integration constants via the highly precise observations used in DE406 and an extension of the length of validity covering the 6000 years of the source ephemeris. Over an interval of 2000 years, we achieve on the mean longitudes (test variables) a precision better than 0.005 for inner planets and 0.015 for outer ones. On the longest time interval covering 6000 years the precision is better than 0.03 for inner planets and 1.2 for outer ones.