热带海洋珍珠贝类立克次体(RLO)病研究 Ⅷ.养殖大珠母贝贝苗养成期群体RLO病流行病学研究

大珠母贝人工养殖过程中,幼贝死亡是一个严重的问题。1993年11月至1995年5月,采用现场调查、实验室研究和数理分析相结合的方法,在海南省临高县新盈珍珠贝养殖场自然海区吊养的A,B,C3批养殖贝和陵水新村珍珠贝养殖场养殖池吊养的D批养殖贝的发病和死亡情况进行了流行病学凋查.结果显示,大珠母贝幼贝群体的死亡是以暴发性方式发生,幼贝群体的大批量死亡高峰一般发生在4～6月龄期,8个月以后随着龄期的延长,死亡率显著降低.幼贝群体死亡率与贝体平均体长的关系是4cm以下的贝体死亡率较高,1～3cm阶段处于死亡高峰期内,5cm以上的贝体死亡率显著降低.大珠母贝幼贝群体的死亡率与类立克次体感染(即RLO平均感染严重度指数SI)之间存在显著的相关性,在RLO感染的高峰之后或当中部相应伴随贝群体死亡率的高峰,随着RLO感染的降低,贝群体的死亡率也明显降低。在4批养殖贝群体中,仅在A批养殖贝群体样本中发现有少量纤毛虫寄生(感染率为87.5%,感染强度为3.56个/10倍物镜).这几批幼贝群体的死亡与海水温度、盐度之间均无相关性。     

Adsorption of fluoride on goethite surfaces-implications on dental epidemiology

Fluoride ion interaction with synthetically prepared goethite has been investigated over a range of pH values (4–9) and F^– concentrations (10^–3–10^–5 M). The amount of F^– retained by goethite suspensions was found to be a function of pH, media ionic strength, F^– concentration, and goethite concentration. The lowest ionic strength (0.001 M KNO₃) gave the highest adsorption medium. Uptake was minimal at pH >7 and increased with decreasing pH. Thermodynamic properties for fluoride adsorption at 298 K and 323 K were investigated. The isosteric heat of adsorption (H _r) was calculated and the heterogeneity and homogeneity of the surface examined for goethite. In view of the importance of fluoride in dental health, the interaction of fluoride on goethite in the physical environment has important implications on dental epidemiology.     

Mapping the Geographical Diffusion of a Finnish Smallpox Epidemic from Historical Population Records

Smallpox mortality from an early 19th century epidemic in Finland is mapped at the parish village level. First, geographically referenced historical materials are used to construct a map showing the spread of smallpox mortality among villages. Next, the diffusion of smallpox morbidity is simulated by computer for the same set of villages. These two maps are then compared. Results indicate that at this scale maps of mortality diffusion can show general trends but have no direct spatial correspondence to the underlying pattern of morbidity diffusion. Mortality maps cannot be used as a surrogate measure of infectious contact behavior at micro scales of analysis.     

Identification and prioritization of data for collection in post-earthquake surveys

During an earthquake, buildings which are vulnerable to seismic loads will be damaged, resulting in property loss and the potential for casualties. To reduce loss of life and injury, the relationship between earthquake-induced building failure and injury severity and distribution needs to be clarified. To this end, a methodology and a series of data collection forms were developed to collect pertinent data for post-event analysis and to provide a basis for structural triage in the field shortly following an earthquake for search and rescue purposes. The forms were developed in four steps: (1) identifying the variables which affect the outcome of an occupant in a damaged building; (2) classifying the variables into three levels of priority for data collection; (3) designing the forms; and (4) applying the forms to damaged buildings from past earthquakes. These forms represent a significant departure from existing forms in that they consider both casualties and building damage jointly in a consistent format. This paper describes the first two steps of the development process; a companion paper outlines the latter components.     

罗氏沼虾(Macrobrachium rosenbergii)传染性皮下和造血器官坏死病毒(IHHNV)的流行病学调查

传染性皮下和造血器官坏死病毒(infectious hypodermal and hematopoietic necrosis virus,IHHNV)是对虾养殖的重要病原之一,可感染多种虾种。罗氏沼虾(Macrobrachium rosenbergii)是中国养殖的重要沼虾品种之一。根据国际兽疫局(Office International des Epizooties,OIE)推荐的IHHNV检测方法,在中国大陆地区首次开展IHHNV在罗氏沼虾中的感染和流行情况调查。结果显示,在研究区的罗氏沼虾养殖区,IHHNV广泛流行,阳性率高达90%;但所有成年罗氏沼虾均未表现出明显的病症,仅表现为病毒的携带。通过基因序列分析显示,检测到的华南地区毒株属于Ⅰ型感染株,与菲律宾株进化关系较为接近;华东地区毒株属于Ⅱ型感染株,与东南亚株进化关系较近。本研究为IHHNV在罗氏沼虾内的感染、流行和防控提供了详细参考。     

Go with the flow: geospatial analytics to quantify hydrologic landscape connectivity for passively dispersed microorganisms

Understanding the diverse ways that landscape connectivity influences the distribution of microbial species is central to managing the spread and persistence of numerous biological invasions. Here, we use geospatial analytics to examine the degree to which the hydrologic connectivity of landscapes influences the transport of passively dispersed microbes, using the invasive plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum as a case study. Pathogen occurrence was analyzed at 280 stream baiting stations across a range of watersheds – exposed to variable inoculum pressure – in California over a 7-year period (2004–2010). Using logistic regression, we modeled the probability of pathogen occurrence at a baiting station based on nine environmental variables. We developed a novel geospatial approach to quantify the hydrologic connectivity of host vegetation and inoculum pressure derived from least cost distance analyses in each watershed. We also examined the influence of local environmental conditions within the immediate neighborhood of a baiting station. Over the course of the sampling period, the pathogen was detected at 67 baiting stations associated with coastal watersheds with mild climate conditions, steep slopes, and higher levels of inoculum pressure. At the watershed scale, hydrologic landscape connectivity was a key predictor of pathogen occurrence in streams after accounting for variation in climate and exposure to inoculum. This study illustrates a geospatial approach to modeling the degree to which hydrologic systems play a role in shaping landscape structures conducive for the transport of passively dispersed microbes in heterogeneous watersheds.     

Spatial patterns of adolescent drug use

Adolescent drug use is individually and socially harmful in terms of disrupting adolescent development and social cohesion. Prior research has identified populations at risk and risk factors for adolescent drug use. This research sought to contextualize adolescent drug use by examining this behavior from a geographic perspective. The specific objectives were to identify patterns, local clusters and excess spatial risk for 5-digit zip codes within the 5-county Cincinnati, Ohio region. Adolescents (n = 57,241) were recruited within local schools by the Coalition for a Drug-free Greater Cincinnati. Results of this research show spatial clusters for perceived safety of marijuana; peer approval of alcohol, tobacco and marijuana; and age of onset for other drugs. The location and nature of these clusters are discussed and displayed in-text. Further, zip codes that were in excess risk compared to the 5-county region were identified. The utility of this research is two-fold: (1) It identifies the geographic variability in adolescent drug use and correlated factors of use, and (2) It provides a methodological framework for future research in spatial epidemiology of drug use.     

Linking pesticides and human health: A geographic information system (GIS) and Landsat remote sensing method to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure

Accurate pesticide exposure estimation is integral to epidemiologic studies elucidating the role of pesticides in human health. Humans can be exposed to pesticides via residential proximity to agricultural pesticide applications (drift). We present an improved geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing method, the Landsat method, to estimate agricultural pesticide exposure through matching pesticide applications to crops classified from temporally concurrent Landsat satellite remote sensing images in California. The image classification method utilizes Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in a combined maximum likelihood classification and per-field (using segments) approach. Pesticide exposure is estimated according to pesticide-treated crop fields intersecting 500 m buffers around geocoded locations (e.g., residences) in a GIS. Study results demonstrate that the Landsat method can improve GIS-based pesticide exposure estimation by matching more pesticide applications to crops (especially temporary crops) classified using temporally concurrent Landsat images compared to the standard method that relies on infrequently updated land use survey (LUS) crop data. The Landsat method can be used in epidemiologic studies to reconstruct past individual-level exposure to specific pesticides according to where individuals are located.     

西藏山地淋溶土系列与大骨节病分布的关系

通过西藏大骨节病县与非病县棕壤与暗棕壤各土属、土种的分布面积的对比分析对西藏耕型棕壤和暗棕壤分布与西藏大骨节病区分布的关系进行研究.结果表明,西藏大骨节病的分布与棕壤、暗棕壤为主的耕型淋溶土壤的分布有一定的联系,但土壤母质和发育程度不同,对大骨节病的分布影响不同.对于残坡积土壤,病区趋于分布在泥质土壤环境,而麻砂质土壤基本是大骨节病的非病区.同样的母质环境,大骨节病区趋于分布在土壤厚度较小,发育程度较低的地区;就洪积土壤来说,其与大骨节病分布的关系似乎与土壤质地有一定的联系,底部砾石含量高的土壤多集中在大骨节病地区.总体而言,山地棕壤、暗棕壤环境是西藏大骨节病区的主要土壤类型之一,西藏未开发的自然棕壤和暗棕壤环境将是大骨节病潜在危险区,因此系统研究西藏典型大骨节病区的土壤分异对探讨未来西藏大骨节病的分布与流行有重要意义.     

利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,以往的研究表明该疾病与气象、环境和社会经济等因素相关联,其影响关系复杂,而疾病本身体现出较强的区域聚集性,采用普通的线性风险建模方法无法捕捉影响因素的复杂性及空间聚集性。因此,本文以山东省为例,在前人研究的基础上,提出了采用贝叶斯网络综合风险建模方法研究手足口病的发病风险与气象、土地利用、社会经济及空气污染等要素间的关系,并通过引入空间扫描统计聚集结果,将空间聚集引入到贝叶斯网络模型加强其空间推理功能,减少模型的偏差,提高评估的精度。结果表明,本文建立的手足口病空间贝叶斯网络风险模型具有较高的估计效果,引入的空间聚集性较好地融入到贝叶斯概率推理模型中,合理建立预测因子同手足口病发病风险之间的关系。通过对建模结果的解译,分析了手足口病的发病风险影响因素,特别是气候、社会经济及空气污染的影响。本文的空间贝叶斯建模方法及研究结果对手足口病暴发的防控预警具有重要的意义。