基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

Multiple longshore sand bars in the upper Chesapeake Bay

In the upper Chesapeake Bay (Maryland, U.S.A.) field surveys were conducted at 18 multiple longshore sand bar sites. The multiple bar systems were found in water depths less than approximately 2 m (mean sea level), and exhibited mild bottom slopes of 0·0052 or less. The number of bars composing each system ranged from four to 17 and the spacing between the crests typically increased in the offshore direction, ranging from 12 to 70 m. Bar height also typically increased with distance offshore and ranged from 0·03 to 0·61 m. A grain size analysis of crest and trough sediment did not reveal any significant differences and the sediment was categorized as ‘fine sand’. A review of the literature data indicated that the Chesapeake Bay multiple bars possessed similar characteristics to those found in Gelding Bay (Baltic Sea); similarities in fetch, wave height and tidal range between the two bays may account for this finding. The surf-scaling parameter indicated that the multiple bar systems were extremely dissipative with regard to wave energy, and wave height appeared to be an important factor in controlling bar spacing and bar height. A multiple wave break point hypothesis was discussed as a possible mechanism for the formation of Chesapeake Bay multiple longshore bars, and limited observational evidence appeared to support such a mechanism.     

Periodical light variations of t tauri stars as a result of disk accretion

I argue that temperatures of spots, responsible for observed periodical light variations of T Tauri stars (TTS), are not known with reliable accuracy to discriminate between chromospheric and accretion theories of TTS 's phenomenon. The hypothesis is set up that spots on classical TTS (CTTS) are due to heating of stellar surface by radiation from a collisional accretion shock, whereas spots on weak line TTS (WTTS), at least in some cases, are connected with a collisionless accretion shock rather than chromospheric activity. Possible scenarios of WTTS interaction with circumstellar matter are discussed.