ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY (1644-1911)

1INTRODUCTIONTheIGBP-IHDP(InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme,andInternationalHumanDimensionPro-gramme)jointproject—LUCC(landuse/coverchange)isaninterdisciplinaryprogramdesignedtoimprovetheunderstandingofthedynamicsofland-useandland-coverchangeasinputstoandconsequencesofglobalenvironmentalchangeandsustainabledevelopment(CHARLOTTE,2002).Inparticularthedifferentbio-geochemicalmodeling(e.g.theglobalcarboncycle)ac-tivitiesandcomparativestudies,suchasthoseconduct-edbyIGBP-G…     

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

Robe's restricted three-body problem revisited

Robe's restricted three-body problem is reanalyzed with a view to incorporate a new assumption, namely that the configuration of the fluid body is that described by an hydrostatic equilibrium figure (Roche's ellipsoid). In the concomitant gravitational field a full treatment of the buoyancy force is given. The pertinent equations of motion are derived, the linear stability of the equilibrium solution is studied and the connection between the effect of the buoyancy forces and a perturbation of the Coriolis force is pointed out.     

Numerical study of the motions and drift force of a floating OWC device

The motion and the drift force of a floating OWC (oscillating water column) wave energy device in regular waves are studied taking account of the oscillating surface-pressure due to the pressure drop across the duct of the air chamber. The potential problem inside the chamber is formulated by making use of the Green integral equation associated with the Rankine-type Green function while the outer problem with the Kelvin-type Green function. The added mass, wave damping and excitation coefficients as well as the motion and drift force of the OWC device are calculated for various values of parameter related to the pressure drop.     

Prediction of local scour around circular piles under waves using a novel artificial intelligence approach

Abstract

The scour phenomena around vertical piles in oceans and under waves may influence the structure stability. Therefore, accurately predicting the scour depth is an important task in the design of piles. Empirical approaches often do not provide the required accuracy compared with data mining methods for modeling such complex processes. The main objective of this study is to develop three data-driven methods, locally weighted linear regression (LWLR), support vector machine (SVR), and multivariate linear regression (MLR) to predict the scour depth around vertical piles due to waves in a sand bed. It is the first effort to develop the LWLR to predict scour depth around vertical piles. The models simulate the scour depth mainly based on Shields parameter, pile Reynolds number, grain Reynolds number, Keulegan–Carpenter number, and sediment number. 111 laboratory datasets, derived from several experimental studies, were used for the modeling. The results indicated that the LWLR provided highly accurate predictions of the scour depths around piles (R?=?0.939 and RMSE = 0.075). Overall, this study demonstrated that the LWLR can be used as a valuable tool to predict the wave-induced scour around piles.     

Wave run-up and overtopping on smooth and rough slopes of coastal structures

A series of hydraulic model tests has been carried out in a glass wave flume to investigate the influences of wave height, wave period, wave steepness, surf similarity parameter, roughness, layer thickness and porosity on wave run-up and overtopping of 1:2 sloped impermeable and permeable breakwaters fronted by a 1:10 gentle, smooth beach slope. The analysis of results involves the correlation between the overtopping energy transfer with the relative wall height and the relationship between wave run-up and overtopping rate. Further, measured wave run-up and overtopping rates are compared with the results given in the Shore Protection Manual (1984), Automated Coastal Engineering System (1992)and results of other investigators.     

Modeling of coupled tide–wave–surge process in the Yellow Sea

A coupled wave–tide–surge model has been developed in this study in order to investigate the effect of the interactions among tides, storm surges, and wind waves. The coupled model is based on the synchronous dynamic coupling of a third-generation wave model, WAM cycle 4, and the two-dimensional tide–surge model. The surface stress, which is generated by interactions between wind and wave, is calculated by using the WAM model directly based on an analytical approximation of the results using the quasi-linear theory of wave generation. The changes in bottom friction are created by the interactions between waves and currents and calculated by using simplified bottom boundary layer model. In consequence, the combined wave–current-induced bottom velocity and effective bottom drag coefficient were increased in the shallow waters during the strong storm conditions.     

Dynamic analysis of a vertical plate exposed to breaking wave impact

From the experimental studies in recent years, it has become known that when a wave breaks directly on a vertical faced coastal structure, high magnitude impact pressures are produced. The theoretical and experimental studies show that the dynamic response of such structures under wave impact loading is closely dependent on the magnitude and duration of the load history. The dynamic analysis and design of a coastal structure can be succeeded provided the design load history for the wave impact is available. Since these types of data are very scarce, it is much more convenient to follow a method which is based on static analysis for the dynamic design procedure. Therefore, to facilitate the dynamic design of a vertical plate that is exposed to breaking wave impact, a multiplication factor called “dynamic magnification factor” is herein presented which is defined as the ratio of the maximum value of the dynamic response to that found by static analysis. The computational results of the present study show that the dynamic magnification factor is a useful ratio to transfer the results of static analysis to the dynamic design of a coastal plate for the maximum impact pressure conditions of p_max/γH₀≤18.     

Dynamic properties of green water event in the overtopping of extreme waves on a fixed dock

A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values.     

Modelling of periodic wave transformation in the inner surf zone

In this paper, we analyse the ability of the nonlinear shallow-water (NSW) equations to predict wave distortion and energy dissipation of periodic broken waves in the inner surf zone. This analysis is based on the weak-solution theory for conservative equations. We derive a new one-way model, which applies to the transformation of non-reflective periodic broken waves on gently sloping beaches. This model can be useful to develop breaking-wave parameterizations (in particular broken-wave celerity expression) in both time-averaged wave models and time-dependent Boussinesq-type models. We also derive a new wave set-up equation which provides a simple and explicit relation between wave set-up and energy dissipation. Finally, we compare numerical simulations of both, the NSW model and the simplified one-way model, with spilling wave breaking experiments and we find a good agreement.