CLIMATIC ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL CONVECTION IN WESTERN PACIFIC ON WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH’S SHORT-TERM SCALES DURING BOREAL SUMMER*

Based on the multi-year average NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NOAA's OLR data,the climatic characteristics of the tropical convection in tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans as well as its relationship with western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is shown as follows:on short-term scales,the tropical convection that has significant influence on western Pacific high's latitudinal movement is located in the area of the South China Sea to the Philippines,which is the 2-day precursor prior to WPSH's latitudinal fluctuation,that is,WPSH is shifting to north 2 days after the tropical convection becomes more active,and vice versa.Moreover,the tropical convection has less effect on WPSH's longitudinal movement.     

A Case Study on the Triggering of Thermal Convective Precipitation

Thermal convective precipitation （TCP） often occurs over mainland China in summer when the area is dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. It is well known that the WPSH often brings about large scale subsidence, then why could deep moist convection occur and where does the water vapor come from？ In this paper, a deep convective precipitation case that happened on 2 August 2003 is studied in order to address these two questions. First, the characteristics of the TCP event are analyzed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite data, automatic weather station observations, and the data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Second, water vapor sources are identified through examining surface evaporation, water vapor advection, and water vapor flux divergence calculated by using a regionally averaged water vapor budget equation. Furthermore, using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM）, contributions of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the TCP are compared through four sensitivity experiments. The results show that in the regions controlled by the WPSH, surface temperature rises rapidly after sunrise. Upon receiving enough sensible heat, the air goes up and leads to convergence in the lower atmosphere. Then the water vapor assembled from the surroundings and the ground surface is transported to the upper levels, and a favorable environment for the TCP forms. A model data diagnosis indicates that about half of precipitable water comes from the convergence of horizontal fluxes of water vapor, and the other half from surface evaporation, while little is from advection. Additional sensitivity experiments prove that both sensible and latent heating are essential for the onset of the TCP. The sensible heat flux triggers thermodynamic ascending motion, and the latent heat flux provides water vapor, but the contribution to TCP from the latter is a little smaller than that from the former.     

Forecasting the western Pacific subtropical high index during typhoon activity using a hybrid deep learning model

Seasonal location and intensity changes in the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) are important factors dominating the synoptic weather and the distribution and magnitude of precipitation in the rain belt over East Asia. Therefore, this article delves into the forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high index during typhoon activity by adopting a hybrid deep learning model. Firstly, the predictors, which are the inputs of the model, are analysed based on three characteristics: the first...     

2011年初夏我国长江中下游降水的气候特征及成因

文章主要分析了2011年初夏长江中下游降水的气候特征及其成因。结果表明：2011年5月长江中下游降水异常偏少,6月转为异常偏多,出现了明显的旱涝转换。长江中下游地区的旱涝转换主要受南海季风、东亚季风强度以及西太平洋副热带高压（副高）的异常快速北跳的影响。研究还发现,6月亚洲中高纬长期维持两槽一脊的环流形势,东北冷涡活动频繁,多次引导冷空气南下。同时,副高异常偏北、偏西,并出现多次西伸过程。由于冷涡的加强南压与西伸的副高相互作用,促使长江以南地区西南气流明显增强,使得冷暖空气在长江中下游地区交汇,最终导致该地降水偏多。     

欧亚大陆积雪对我国春季气候可预报性的影响

利用江西省83个气象观测站1961—2018年春季(3—5月)逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,对江西春季降水异常的大气环流特征及其对ENSO事件的响应进行了研究。结果表明：江西春季降水异常偏多年,中层500 hPa中高纬地区受欧亚型环流(EU型)影响,乌拉尔山附近阻塞高压系统活动频繁,贝加尔湖地区低槽偏强,西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高,下同)偏强,有利于北方冷空气南下并与偏南暖湿气流在江西上空交汇;低层850 hPa菲律宾以东西太平洋地区为异常反气旋环流控制,造成南海水汽向江西地区输送加强。而江西春季降水异常偏少年,其环流特征表现则与之相反。ENSO是影响江西春季降水的重要强迫信号,厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)衰减年,春季东亚地区低层850 hPa西太副高偏强(弱),有(不)利南海上空水汽向江西地区输送,低层辐合(辐散)和高层200 hPa辐散(辐合)形成的动力抬升条件是造成江西地区降水偏多(少)的主要原因。

     

华南前汛期开始和结束日期的划分

本文利用48年（1957～2004年）中国站点逐日降水资料和同期NCEP/ NCAR逐日再分析资料,研究了华南前汛期的开始和结束时间的划分问题.首先,选择了研究华南前汛期问题的区域和代表站点,然后对降水量、水汽（可降水量,水汽通量,水汽通量散度）、垂直速度和假相当位温等物理量的演变特征进行分析,发现：前汛期起、止前后上述要素均有阶段性的突变.其中4月第1候（19候）是华南前汛期的开始,可降水量、水汽通量和假相当位温等增加显著,对流开始活跃,水汽通量散度也由辐散变为辐合,降水量明显增加.但4月份总体雨量不强,主要为锋面降水.5月份随夏季风爆发,水汽继续增加,对流活跃,进入季风降水阶段;夏季风降水盛期时段主要集中在6月份.6月第4候（34候）前汛期结束,各降水指标骤减.然后根据降水和环流指标,提出了华南前汛期开始和结束日期的划分标准,定义了逐年的开始和结束日期.最后对华南前汛期开始期之前、之后以及结束期之前、之后的大气环流背景做了对比分析.指出,前汛期开始前,环流形势有利于华南地区增暖增湿;开始期以后则有利于冷空气南下,造成连续降水,使华南进入前汛期.而前汛期的结束,则是由于东亚大气环流的季节调整,尤其是西太平洋副热带高压的第一次北跳所造成的.     

VARIABILITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SEA TEMPERATURE VARIATION CONSIDERING THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING OVER THE PAST 60 YEARS

By adopting characteristic index data for the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) from the National Climate Center of China, U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sea surface temperature (SST) data, we studied the WPSH variability considering the background of climate warming by using a Gaussian filter, moving averages, correlation analysis, and synthetic analysis. Our results show that with climate warming over the past 60 years, significant changes in the WPSH include its enlarged area, strengthened intensity, westward extended ridge point and southward expanded southern boundary, as well as enhanced interannual fluctuations in all these indices. The western ridge point of the WPSH consistently varies with temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, but the location of the ridgeline varies independently. The intensity and area of the WPSH were both significantly increased in the late 1980s. Specifically, the western ridge point started to significantly extend westward in the early 1990s, and the associated interannual variability had a significant increase in the late 1990s; in addition, the ridgeline was swaying along the north-south-north direction, and the corresponding variability was also greatly enhanced in the late 1990s. With climate warming, the SST increase becomes more weakly correlated with the WPSH intensity enhancement but more strongly correlated with the westward extension of the ridge point in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean in winter, corresponding to an expanding WPSH in space. In the northern Pacific in winter, the SST decrease has a weaker correlation with the southerly location of the ridgeline but also a stronger correlation with the westward extension of the ridge point. In the tropical western Pacific in winter, the correlations of the SST decrease with the WPSH intensity enhancement, and the westward extension of the ridge point is strengthened. These observations can be explained by strengthened Hadley circulations, the dominant effects of the southward shift, and additional effects of the weakened ascending branch of the Walker circulation during warm climatological periods, which consequently lead to strengthened intensities, increased areas, and southward expansions of the WPSH in summer.     

中国东部夏季降水特征及其与西太平洋副高的关系

利用中国东部160个气象观测站1951年-2012年夏季（6-8月）的月平均降水资料,运用EOF分析方法,分析中国东部夏季降水的时空分布特征及其与西太平洋副热带高压的关系。结果表明:（1)夏季,中国东部降水大值区域从华南移到江淮流域,然后到达华北和东北地区。（2) 中国东部夏季降水EOF第一模态空间分布为长江以北与黄河以南地区之间存在一个降水大值雨带, EOF第二模态显示出整个东部沿海地区的降水量以长江为界,长江以南降水偏少,长江以北降水偏多,且江南与江北的降水呈反位相。（3)在西太平洋副热带高压较强的年份,江淮流域降水偏少,华北地区降水偏多;西太平洋副热带高压较弱的年份,江淮流域降水偏多,华南地区降水偏少。     

气候平均场上西太平洋副热带高压双脊线过程可能成因的动力诊断分析

利用NCEP-DOE再分析数据集II,诊断分析了气候平均场上6次西太平洋副热带高压双脊线过程,借助一个两层半大气模式,从动力学上初步揭示了西太平洋热带大气准10天振荡（Quasi Ten-day Oscillation,简称QTO）向西北方向传播与季风槽东伸西撤之间的相互作用过程,探讨了气候平均场上西太副高双脊线可能的形成机制。分析表明季风槽准10天东西振荡是气候平均场上西太副高双脊线形成的主要原因,而季风槽东伸西撤与QTO传播密切相关。进一步分析发现,QTO向西北方向传播,东风切变作用于斜压辐散的经向梯度,在对流中心北侧生成正扰动涡度。QTO在季风槽东侧激发的气旋性扰动涡度,诱导季风槽东伸,侵入副高,造成副高外围变形,形成双脊线。因此,形成西太副高双脊线的主要原因之一可能是西太平洋热带大气QTO。尽管季风槽东伸直接引起副高双脊线发生,但是它只不过是受QTO影响的一种表现。本文仅为诊断结果,其结果还有待于模式敏感性试验的验证。     

影响副高活动的热力强迫作用——动力学解析模型

采用最优化搜索方法,对影响副高活动的东亚季风区位势场和季风雨带降水场进行了函数拟合,并用拟合出的函数作为基函数和热力强迫因子代入正压涡度方程,对涡度方程解的性质进行了讨论。分析和模拟结果表明:中心位于我国华北一带东亚季风雨带凝结潜热释放易导致副高的西伸和北抬;而中心位于赤道附近的南海季风槽降水热力作用可导致副高出现东退和西伸两种可能。