Seal integrity and feasibility of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> sequestration in the Teapot Dome EOR pilot: geomechanical site characterization

This paper reports a preliminary investigation of CO₂ sequestration and seal integrity at Teapot Dome oil field, Wyoming, USA, with the objective of predicting the potential risk of CO₂ leakage along reservoir-bounding faults. CO₂ injection into reservoirs creates anomalously high pore pressure at the top of the reservoir that could potentially hydraulically fracture the caprock or trigger slip on reservoir-bounding faults. The Tensleep Formation, a Pennsylvanian age eolian sandstone is evaluated as the target horizon for a pilot CO₂ EOR-carbon storage experiment, in a three-way closure trap against a bounding fault, termed the S1 fault. A preliminary geomechanical model of the Tensleep Formation has been developed to evaluate the potential for CO₂ injection inducing slip on the S1 fault and thus threatening seal integrity. Uncertainties in the stress tensor and fault geometry have been incorporated into the analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. The authors find that even the most pessimistic risk scenario would require ∼10 MPa of excess pressure to cause the S1 fault to reactivate and provide a potential leakage pathway. This would correspond to a CO₂ column height of ∼1,500 m, whereas the structural closure of the Tensleep Formation in the pilot injection area does not exceed 100 m. It is therefore apparent that CO₂ injection is not likely to compromise the S1 fault stability. Better constraint of the least principal stress is needed to establish a more reliable estimate of the maximum reservoir pressure required to hydrofracture the caprock.     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

Theoretical aspects of cap-rock and fault seals for single- and two-phase hydrocarbon columns

Cap-rock seals can be divided genetically into those that fail by capillary leakage (membrane seals) and those whose capillary entry pressures are so high that seal failure preferentially occurs by fracturing and/or wedging open of faults (hydraulic seals). A given membrane seal can trap a larger oil column than gas column at shallow depths, but below a critical depth (interval), gas is more easily sealed than oil. This critical depth increases with lower API gravity, lower oil GOR and overpressured conditions (for the gas phase). These observations arise from a series of modelling studies of membrane sealing and can be conveniently represented using pressure/ depth (P/D) profiles through sealed hydrocarbon columns. P/D diagrams have been applied to the more complex situation of the membrane sealing of a gas cap underlain by an oil rim; at seal capacity, such a two-phase column will be always greater than if only oil or gas occurs below the seal.These conclusions contrast with those for hydraulic seals where the seal capacity to oil always exceeds that for gas. Moreover, a trapped two-phase column, at hydraulic seal capacity will be less than the maximum-allowed oil-only column, but more than the maximum gas-only column. Unlike membrane seals, hydraulic seal capacity should be directly related to cap-rock thickness, in addition to the magnitude of the minimum effective stress in the sealing layer and the degree of overpressure development in the sequence as a whole.Fault-related seals are effectively analogous to membrane cap-rocks which have been tilted to the angle of the fault plane. Consequently, all of the above conclusions derived for membrane cap-rocks apply to both sealing faults sensu stricto (fault plane itself seals) and juxtaposition faults (hydrocarbon trapped laterally against a juxtaposed sealing unit). The maximum-allowed two-phase column trapped by a sealing fault is greater than for equivalent oil-only and gas-only columns, but less than that predicted for a horizontal membrane cap-rock under similar conditions. Where a two-phase column is present on both sides of a sealing fault (which is at two-phase seal capacity), a deeper oil/water contact (OWC) in one fault block is associated with a deeper gas/oil contact (GOC) compared with the adjacent fault block. If the fault seal is discontinuous in the gas leg, however, the deeper OWC is accompanied by a shallower GOC, whereas a break in the fault seal in the oil leg results in a common OWC in both fault blocks, even though separate GOC's exist. Schematic P/D profiles are provided for each of the above situations from which a series of fundamental equations governing single- and two-phase cap-rock and fault seal capacities can be derived. These relationships may have significant implications for exploration prospect appraisal exercises where more meaningful estimates of differential seal capacities can be made.The membrane sealing theory developed herein assumes that all reservoirs and seals are water-wet and no hydrodynamic flow exists. The conclusions on membrane seal capacity place constraints on the migration efficiency of gas along low-permeabiligy paths at depth where fracturing, wedging open of faults and/or diffusion process may be more important. Contrary to previous assertions, it is speculated that leakage of hydrocarbons through membrane seals occurs in distinct pulses such that the seal is at or near the theoretically calculated seal capacity, once this has been initially attained.Finally, the developed seal theory and P/D profile concepts are applied to a series of development geological problems including the effects of differential depletion, and degree of aquifer support, on sealing fault leakage, and the evaluation of barriers to vertical cross-flow using RFT profiles through depleted reservoirs. It is shown that imbibition processes and dynamic effects related to active cross-flow across such barriers often preclude quantitative analysis and solution of these problems for which simulation studies are usually required.     

The economics of ending Canada's commercial harp seal hunt

The roots of the Canadian harp seal hunt can be traced to the 16th Century. But in the mid-20th century, opposition to the commercial hunt became widespread after television images of seal pups being killed with clubs on the pack ice off the coast of Newfoundland were broadcast around the world. International conservation groups, animal welfare groups, animal rights groups, and foreign governments have been calling for the Canadian government to end the commercial seal hunt on the grounds that it is inhumane and that harvest levels are unsustainable. The Canadian government defends the traditional practices of hunting harp seals, argues that seal pelts are an important source of income for sealers, and insists that the killing methods are humane and that harvest levels are sustainable. Emotions run high on both sides of the debate. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether or not there is a purely economic argument for ending Canada's commercial seal hunt. The paper finds that the benefits of ending the commercial hunt exceed the costs, but not unequivocally. However, the paper argues there should be a higher criterion—the Pareto criterion—for ending the commercial hunt; that is the hunt should end only if winners compensate the losers. The paper goes on to argue that an effective way to satisfy this criterion is to introduce a system of individual transferable quotas (ITQs) and let the market reveal the value of the commercial seal hunt. In addition to many other advantages such as improving the safety and efficiency of the hunt, the ITQ market could provide a mechanism by which those willing to pay to end the hunt could do so directly to sealers thereby ensuring that the hunt is scaled back or ultimately ended only when it is economically efficient and unambiguously welfare-improving.     

Stochastic evaluation of fluvial to marginal marine sealing facies

Hydrocarbon top seal analyses are particularly difficult in fluvial and marginal marine settings. Although these settings often contain beds comprised of a low-permeability, clay-rich lithology associated with high quality seals, their presence does not guarantee an effective seal because individual beds within the stratal unit may be laterally discontinuous. Lateral facies changes, truncation of fine-grained beds, or the presence of crevasse splays may provide cross-stratal migration pathways, reducing the effective sealing capacity to a magnitude less than the closure height.     

A laboratory study on capillary sealing efficiency of Iranian shale and anhydrite caprocks

Caprock has the most important role in the long term safety of formation gas storage. The caprocks trap fluid accumulated beneath, contribute to lateral migration of this fluid and impede its upward migration. The rapid upward passage of invasive plumes due to buoyancy pressure is prevented by capillary pressure within these seal rocks. In the present study, two main seal rocks, from the Zagros basin in the southwest of Iran, a shale core sample of Asmari formation and an anhydrite core sample of Gachsaran formation, were provided. Absolute permeabilities of shale and anhydrite cores, considering the Klinkenberg effect, were measured as 6.09 × 10⁻¹⁸ and 0.89 × 10⁻¹⁸ m², respectively. Capillary sealing efficiency of the cores was investigated using gas breakthrough experiments. To do so, two distinct techniques including step by step and residual capillary pressure approaches were performed, using carbon dioxide, nitrogen and methane gases at temperatures of 70 and 90 °C, under confining pressures in the range 24.13–37.92 MPa. In the first technique, it was found that capillary breakthrough pressure of the cores varies in the range from 2.76 to 34.34 MPa. Moreover, the measurements indicated that after capillary breakthrough, gas effective permeabilities lie in range 1.85 × 10⁻²¹ – 1.66 × 10⁻¹⁹ m². In the second technique, the minimum capillary displacement pressure of shale varied from 0.66 to 1.45 MPa with the maximum effective permeability around 7.76 × 10⁻²¹ – 6.69 × 10⁻²⁰ m². The results indicate that anhydrite caprock of the Gachsaran formation provides proper capillary sealing efficacy, suitable for long term storage of the injected CO₂ plumes, due to its higher capillary breakthrough pressure and lower gas effective permeability.     

Pressure significance of gas chimneys

Analysis was carried out of part of the northern North Sea to test what the presence and style of gas chimneys indicate about fluid pressure (P_f) within hydrocarbon reservoirs. Previous results suggest that broad chimneys above a trap and thin chimneys on the flanks indicate the presence of hydrocarbons, whilst thin chimneys in the crest suggest the hydrocarbons have escaped. Each type of gas chimney is usually associated with overpressure within Mesozoic reservoirs, but the water leg is hydrostatically-pressured in most Cenozoic reservoirs. This indicates: (a) gas leaking from a trap does not necessarily cause P_f to become hydrostatic; (b) overpressure may not be necessary for the expulsion of gasses through seal units to create the chimneys; (c) although gas chimneys indicate the existence of an active hydrocarbon system, their presence does not appear to indicate anything significant about present-day P_f.     

被断裂破坏的盖层封闭能力评价方法及其应用

断层对盖层的破坏主要表现为两个方面:一是减小了盖层的连续封盖面积,二是减小了盖层的厚度。盖层被断层破坏的主要影响因素有断层的断距、倾角和盖层厚度。通过对影响因素研究,提出了盖层有效断接厚度的新概念和计算方法。根据我国部分与断层有关的大-中型气田气柱高度资料,发现了有效断接厚度与所能封闭的最大气柱高度的对数线性关系,并由此提出了评价被断层破坏的盖层封闭能力的新方法。通过对库车坳陷库姆格列木群膏泥岩盖层的应用研究,所得结论与勘探实践完全吻合,证明所提出的评价方法是可行的。     

1979~2013年西北太平洋地区海平面气压场季节转换时间的变化分析

采用1979~2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,借助线性趋势、距平、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验及Morlet小波等方法分析了西北太平洋地区海平面气压场季节转换时间的长期趋势和多尺度周期变化特征。结果表明:海平面气压场一年中存在两次季节转变,20°N~50°N海平面气压场冬夏季节转变的时间在第20候左右,而夏冬季节转变发生在第51候。并且海平面气压场的季节转换时间存在纬度差异与经度差异。通过趋势分析,发现海平面气压场由冬季型转变到夏季型的时间存在显著的趋势变化,并且在近35年内是趋于提前,其气候倾向率为-0.33候/10 a;夏季型转换为冬季型的时间趋于延后,气候倾向率为0.25候/10 a。季节转换时间的Mann-Kendall突变检测结果表明,海平面气压场由冬向夏的转换时间在1997~1998年间发生了突变;夏季型转换为冬季型的时间尚未发现显著突变。最后通过对季节转换时间的小波分析与小波功率谱的显著性检验得出,冬夏季节转换的时间具有显著的15 a周期变化;夏冬季节转换时间8 a周期振荡最为剧烈。     

Hydro-geomechanical modelling of seal behaviour in overpressured basins using discontinuous deformation analysis

A coupled hydro-geomechanical modelling environment, developed to evaluate the coupled responses of fluid flow in deforming discontinuous media, is described. A staggered computational framework is presented, where the two simulations tools, HYDRO and DDA, communicate via the mapping of an equivalent porosity (and related permeabilities) from the rock system to the fluid phase and an inverse mapping of the pressure field. Several algorithmic and modelling issues are discussed, in particular the computational procedure to map the current geometry of the discontinuous rock blocks assembly into an equivalent porosity (and permeability) field. A generic, geometrically simple, overpressured reservoir/seal system is analysed for illustration. Further examples investigate discontinuous, fractured configurations in flexure causing a degree of spatial variability in the induced stresses. Model predictions show that the combination of hydraulic and mechanical loads causes a dilational opening of some pre-existing fractures and closure of others, with strong localisation of the modified flow pattern along wider fracture openings.