A Statistical Model for Stock Assessment of Southern Bluefin Tuna with Temporal Changes in Selectivity

Assessment of the status of southern bluefin tuna (SBT) by Australia and Japan has used a method (ADAPT) that imposes a number of structural restrictions, and is similar to methods used for a number of stocks world-wide. A flexible method for assessment of the SBT population is presented that is much less restrictive and has potentially wide applicability. The three key features are: (1) all fitting to data is within the context of maximum likelihood, (2) catch-at-age data are not assumed to be without error (as in existing methods), but rather to be random variables, while age-specific selectivity is allowed to change over time within the bounds of specific structure, and (3) autocorrelation in recruitment processes is considered within the likelihood framework of the model. While the results suggest the stock has been depleted considerably from its virgin biomass, and are generally consistent with previous assessments, they also indicate that it is not as much below the biomass that will produce maximum suitable yield as previously estimated and that the extent of stock rebuilding necessary may not be as large as has been argued. The available data are shown to provide little information on the steepness parameter of the stock-recruitment function, and hence on sustainable catch levels for the stock.     

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra tsunami recorded on the coast of West Africa

Analysis of sea-level data obtained from the Atlantic Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) sea-level station at Takoradi, Ghana, West Africa, clearly reveals a tsunami signal associated with the M_w = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean. The tsunami arrived at this location on 27 December 2004 at approximately 01:38 UTC (which is close to the expected tsunami arrival time at that site), after travelling for more than 24 hours. The first wave was negative (trough), in contrast with the South African stations where the first wave was mainly positive (crest). The dominant observed period at Takoradi was about 42 minutes. The maximum trough-to-crest wave height (41cm) was observed on 28 December at 00:15 UTC. There were two distinct tsunami 'bursts', separated in time by about 14 hours, the larger being the second burst. A small residual lowering of the sea level (～15cm) during the tsunami and for several days afterwards, and a delayed (～4.5 days) lowering of seawater temperature (up to ～4.5°C), was observed, possibly indicating the presence of internal waves through the Gulf of Guinea associated with propagating tsunami waves. The prominent tsunami signal found in the Takoradi record suggests that tsunami waves could also be found at other sites off the West African coast.     

Changes in the epibenthos of Saldanha Bay,South Africa,between the 1960s and 2001: an analysis based on dredge samples

Saldanha Bay, which lies on the south-west coast of South Africa, has undergone major development over the past 30 years, including breakwater and harbour construction, harbour extension, dredging, mining, fishing, fish processing and mussel culture. This study examines whether the benthic macrofaunal communities in the bay have been altered over this period. Twelve stations that had been sampled in the 1960s, prior to harbour construction, were re-sampled in 2001 (40 years later) with a surface dredge. Species abundances were coded from 1 (present) to 5 (abundant) to make the two sets of samples comparable. The benthic communities before harbour development were significantly different from those in 2001 (ANOSIM, p < 0.001). Increases in the abundances of the whelk Nassarius speciosus and the crab Hymenosoma orbiculare were mainly responsible for these differences. Two main benthic communities were recognised in the 1960s and, at that stage, covered large extents of the bay, whereas in 2001 the communities were divided into distinct 'Small Bay' and 'Big Bay' groups, reflecting the division of the bay into two areas by the development of a harbour wall. Although natural fluctuations may account for some of these changes, it is more likely that the considerable anthropogenic activities within Saldanha Bay, which are known to have altered physical conditions, have led to the changes observed in the benthic communities.     

Cartographic Aspects of Land Cover Change Detection (Over- and Underestimation in the I&CORINE Land Cover 2000 Project)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of analysis of the data obtained by the method of computer-aided visual interpretation of satellite images used for identification of changes in land cover within the framework of the Image and CORINE Land Cover 2000 (I&CLC2000) Project (jointly managed by the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in Ispra, Italy). These data are also relevant in cartography. Land cover changes identified by the method mentioned may contain mistakes caused by over- or underestimation. The paper describes these mistakes. Overestimation (technical change) of the extent of land cover change is caused by adding the residual polygons (smaller than 25 ha) to neighbouring polygons. Underestimation is caused by the fact that discernible changes concerning areas larger than 5 ha which showed up in objects with areas smaller than 25 ha were not identified and, consequently, not included in either CLC90 or CLC2000 data layers; e.g. Dutch CLC_change database users' accuracy indicates an overestimation of 8.8% whereas the comparison of net change indicates a small, insignificant underestimation. In spite of the problems referred to, caused by overestimation or underestimation, the datasets on land cover changes in Europe for the 1990s and the year 2000 (± one year) can also be used for the compilation of land cover change maps at the regional, national and European levels.