A multimodel assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity–duration–frequency relationship

In this study, the patterns of past and future drought occurrences in the Seoul region were analysed using observed historical data from the Seoul weather station located in the Korean Peninsula and four different types of general circulation models (GCMs), namely, GFDL:CM2_1, CONS:ECHO‐G, MRI:CGCM2_3_2 and UKMO:HADGEM1. To analyse statistical properties such as drought frequency duration and return period, the Standardized Precipitation Index was used to derive the severity–duration–frequency (SDF) curve from the drought frequency analysis. In addition, a drought spell analysis was conducted to estimate the frequency and change of drought duration for each drought classification. The results of the analysis suggested a decrease in the frequency of mild droughts and an increase in the frequency of severe and extreme droughts in the future. Furthermore, the average duration of droughts is expected to increase. A comparison of the SDF relationship derived from the observed data with that derived via the GCMs indicated that the drought severity for each return period was reduced as drought duration increased and that the drought severity derived from the GCMs was severer than the severity obtained using the observed data for the same duration and return period. Furthermore, among the four types of GCMs used in this study, the MRI model predicted the most severe future drought for the Seoul region, and the SDF curve derived using the MRI model also resulted in the highest degree of drought severity compared with the other GCMs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网络地图发布系统的体系结构及数据模型研究

通过分析网络应用体系结构和地图发布服务流程，分析、建立了网络地图发布数据模型，最后通过实验验证了该体系结构和数据模型的有效性。     

Maximum seismic displacement of inelastic systems based on energy concept

The energy balance and energy input of Single-Degree-of-Freedom (SDF) systems under earthquake motion is studied for elastic and inelastic systems. The maximum displacement of an inelastic system is related to that of an elastic system having the same initial stiffness and mass by considering the earthquake energy input per cycle of oscillation. With an assumption that the cyclic energy input is equal for both elastic and inelastic system for intermediate- and long-period systems, a simplified relation is suggested. Newmark's equal energy rule is shown to be the upper bound of the simplified relation; the lower bound of maximum response displacement is also derived in this paper. The numerical analysis results were mostly shown to fall between the proposed upper and lower bounds. A separate approximate relation is proposed for short-period systems. The reason for divergence from the suggested relations is discussed for short-period systems. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Analysis of streamflow droughts using fixed and variable thresholds

Hydrological drought analysis is very important in the design of hydrotechnical projects and water resources management and planning. In this study, a methodology is proposed for the analysis of streamflow droughts using the threshold level approach. The method has been applied to Yermasoyia semiarid basin in Cyprus based on 30‐year daily discharge data. Severity was defined as the accumulated water deficit volume occurring during a drought event, in respect with a target threshold. Fixed and variable thresholds (seasonal, monthly, and daily) were employed to derive the drought characteristics. The threshold levels were determined based on the Q₅₀ percentiles of flow extracted from the corresponding flow duration curves for each threshold. The aim is to investigate the sensitivity of these thresholds in the estimation of maximum drought severities for various return periods and the derivation of severity–duration–frequency curves. The block maxima and the peaks over threshold approaches were used to perform the extreme value analysis. Three pooling procedures (moving average, interevent time criterion, and interevent time and volume criterion) were employed to remove the dependent and minor droughts. The application showed that the interevent time and volume criterion is the most unbiased pooling method. Therefore, it was selected to estimate the drought characteristics. The results of this study indicate that monthly and daily variable thresholds are able to capture abnormal drought events that occur during the whole hydrological year whereas the other two, only the severe ones. They are also more sensitive in the estimation of maximum drought severities and the derivation of the curves because they incorporate better the effect of drought durations.