区域生态安全研究的科学基础与初步框架

生态安全研究涉及多种尺度（种群、生态系统、流域、区域、国家）,其中区域生态安全是区域和国家可持续发展的基础,是建立和谐社会及环境友好型社会的必要条件,是人类生态安全的核心,应该处于中心的地位。但目前为止进行的区域生态安全研究多集中在综合指标评价、生物安全及土地利用变化效应的分析,比较缺乏严格的判定区域生态安全的科学基础。本文认为,地理地带性应是区域生态安全研究的基本准则;景观（土地类型）的原生态值可以作为区域生态安全的客观标准;景观退化程度是区域生态安全的重要指标;三者共同构成区域生态安全研究的科学基础。本文提出了区域生态安全研究的地理学方法,其框架体系应包括：（1）地理地带性分析及景观原生态定值;（2）景观退化程度的确定;（3）区域退化景观格局分析;（4）周围区域的生态影响分析;（5）区域生态安全水平的判别模式;（6）区域生态安全的指标体系。     

Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models

In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

RES2DINV在粤北某铅锌矿区激电测深反演中的应用

在粤北某铅锌矿矿区进行的直流激电测深工作中,通过修改激电测量数据格式,用RES2DINV软件进行反演,推测了3个矿体的产状。后经钻探验证,推测结果跟钻探揭露结果基本一致。     

Subglacial topography and internal structure of central and western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, determined from airborne radio echo sounding

During five austral summers, from 1994/1995 until 1998/1999, the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) carried out a large airborne radio echo sounding (RES) survey in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica. These ice thickness measurements are part of the AWI contribution to the pre-site survey for a deep ice core drill site in DML within the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA). The survey encompasses more than 90,000 km of RES profiles over DML and the adjacent coastal area, covering more than 1 million km². The lower boundary of the ice sheet could be determined area-wide. Internal horizons occurring in the upper two-thirds of the ice column can also be traced for several hundred kilometers. This work presents the latest maps of the subglacial topography of the investigated area as well as of an internal horizon.     

高密度电阻率法研究进展

文中从高密度电法系统的发展、电极排列方式,反演方法及应用等方面,介绍了高密度电阻率法的应用研究进展。说明了高密度电法仪器从集中式到分布式,电极排列方式为适应地形变化等因素的影响,由某一种排列方式发展到组合排列和自定义排列方式。反演方法由早期的最小二乘反演发展到佐迪反演、基于born近似反演等反演方法,且从一维发展到三维,甚至四维。反演软件也从二维反演发展到三维反演,如德国DMT公司的反演软件从Res2DINV发展到Res3DINV,美国AGI公司的Earthimnge反演软件可以进行水域、跨孔高密度电法发演。列举了高密度电法近几年来在多个领域的应用概况,最后,文章总结出高密度电法仪器的发展方向为：提高发射机功率,增大供电电流,以及增加排列长度,提高仪器通道数量;带地形的非线性共轭梯度三维反演具有需要内存小、计算速度快,可以更好的定位鼻常体的幸间位置等优点．将会得到受为广泛的应用．     

Where are the limits of model predictive capabilities?

Distributed hydrological models can make predictions with much finer spatial resolution than the supporting field data. They will, however, usually not have a predictive capability at model grid scale due to limitations of data availability and uncertainty of model conceptualizations. In previous publications, we have introduced the Representative Elementary Scale (RES) concept as the theoretically minimum scale at which a model with a given conceptualization has a potential for obtaining a predictive accuracy corresponding to a given acceptable accuracy. The new RES concept has similarities to the 25‐year‐old Representative Elementary Area concept, but it differs in the sense that while Representative Elementary Area addresses similarity between subcatchments by sampling within the catchment, RES focuses on effects of data or conceptualization uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulations followed by a scale analysis. In the present paper, we extend and generalize the RES concept to a framework for assessing the minimum scale of potential predictability of a distributed model applicable also for analyses of different model structures and data availabilities. We present three examples with RES analyses and discuss our findings in relation to Beven's alternative blueprint and environmental modeling philosophy from 2002. While Beven here addresses model structural and parameter uncertainties, he does not provide a thorough methodology for assessing to which extent model predictions for variables that are not measured possess opportunities to have meaningful predictive accuracies, or whether this is impossible due to limitations in data and models. This shortcoming is addressed by the RES framework through its analysis of the relationship between aggregation scale of model results and prediction uncertainties and for considering how alternative model structures and alternative data availability affects the results. We suggest that RES analysis should be applied in all modeling studies that aim to use simulation results at spatial scales smaller than the support scale of the calibration data.     

贵州潜在倾倒式崩塌的识别指标

针对贵州省倾倒式崩塌的特点,选取对灾害发生具有控制性或影响较大的且易于在野外采集的因子(坡度、岩体结构、凹腔状态、主控结构面倾角、卸荷松弛、后缘裂缝贯通程度和基座软硬程度)作为识别指标。基于岩石工程系统RES方法,通过人工神经网络BP模型构建指标相互作用关系矩阵,研究指标间相互作用对潜在崩塌稳定性的影响,确定评价指标的权重,并就评价指标对整体稳定性的重要程度进行排序,旨在为潜在崩塌的野外简易识别奠定基础。研究发现,岩体结构、后缘裂缝贯通程度对潜在倾倒式崩塌的影响很强。      

多极化冰雷达所揭示的DOME A区域冰盖内部冰晶组构特征

The ice exceeding one million years old has significant meaning for verifying and interpreting the middle Pleistocene transition （MPT） and the relationship between greenhouse gas and climate change. The region near Dome A in Antarctica satisfies the conditions for obtaining million-years-old ice since it has low temperatures and low accumulation rates. We analyze the corresponding relation between radar wave features and the crystal orientation fabric （COF） types based on the results of multi-polarization plane radio echo sounding （RES）. The results show that, even in the summit of the ice sheet, the COF type is not perfect, but is an elongated single-pole COF. Principal-axis-orientation differences of the COF among the different periods exist and reveal that the ice flow orientations are not constant but deviate clockwise with the increasing depth. This may be related to the adjacent basal valley or both height and position changes of the summit during the glacial-interglacial periods.     

高密度电法在某垃圾焚烧环保发电站岩溶c场地勘察中的应用

岩溶是某垃圾焚烧环保发电站场场址勘察的主要不良地质作用,为了查明岩溶和破碎带的分布情况,本文利用高密度电阻率法来探测能引起低阻异常的岩溶等地质体。在调查该区地层和溶洞的类型、分布及电性特征的基础上,利用RES2Dmod建立包含不同规模和埋深的低阻溶洞或破碎带模型,通过对比模型的温纳、偶极和微分三种装置类型的正反演结果,在本地区选用分辨率和稳定性高的温纳装置进行高密度勘测。利用高密度电阻率法查明了两个落水洞的埋深和分布情况,推测了4个疑似溶洞和破碎带,部分与后期验证钻孔吻合。利用合适的装置类型进行高密度探测可以查明充水充泥低阻溶洞的规模及分布,是一种经济有效的场址勘察方法。