A simple test and predictive models for assessing swell potential of Ankara (Turkey) Clay

During the past three decades, damage due to swelling action of Ankara Clay has been observed more clearly in some parts of Ankara where rapid expansion of the city led to the construction of various kinds of structures. In this study, a comprehensive research program has been conducted (i) to investigate the effect of remoulding and desiccation on the swelling behavior of Ankara Clay and its swelling anisotropy, (ii) to estimate depth of active zone, (iii) to develop a simple technique in determining the magnitude of swelling based on water content of the soaked specimen after 24 and 72 h (w_max24,72), and (iv) to produce predictive models which could be used to estimate the swelling potential of Ankara Clay from its mineralogical and simply measured engineering characteristics. A laboratory testing program was carried out using both undisturbed, and remoulded and desiccated samples selected from 20 different locations. Montmorillonite was identified as being the main clay mineral present. Based on the moisture content variation with depth, the active expansive zone was considered to be about 2 m. The test results suggest that swelling pressure of the clay considerably decreases and/or dies out when the water content is greater than 30%. It is also noted that the measured lateral swelling is significantly in excess of the vertical equivalent indicating an anisotropy with respect to swelling. Statistical assessments indicate that a new parameter (w_max24,72) from a simple test, suggested in this study, is a very strong parameter for predicting swelling parameters of Ankara Clay. Based on 60 empirical predictive equations with coefficients of correlation between 0.96 and 0.66 from multiple regression analyses, w_max24,72, methylene blue value, liquid limit, dry unit weight and smectite content are the most important index and mineralogical properties to predict the swelling parameters of Ankara clay with small deviations from the measured values.     

Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2–6.7  °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0–6.2 ml l⁻¹. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.     

Experimental investigation of tsunami bore impact pressure on a perforated seawall

Catastrophic failures of many tsunami barriers along the affected coasts during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami has prompted extensive investigation into improving and revising design codes for tsunami defence structures. To date, researchers and coastal engineers are investigating to understand the failure mechanisms and to find solutions so that the structures merely remain intact in the extreme event such as tsunami. Thus, the present work is motivated to experimentally study tsunami-induced bore pressures exerted on vertical seawalls; a solid vertical wall and a porous vertical seawall that consisted of a perforated front wall and a solid rear wall. Bores with various heights and velocities were generated by using the dam-break method. A porous seawall with 20% porosity of perforated front wall was used in this study. Bore pressures exerted on the solid rear wall and chamber oscillations that occurred in the experiments were also discussed. The experimental results showed that multiple peak pressures were observed during bore run-up phase in the time series of bore impacts. A predictive equation to estimate the maximum bore pressure on a perforated seawall was developed using multiple regression analysis. The proposed equation was also compared with previous empirical formulas.     

新疆前兆震群ρ值的研究

研究新疆伊宁——乌鲁木齐和乌什——库尔勒1972年以来发生的49个震群的ρ值表明,ρ<0.55可作为前兆震群的判据指标。分析了ρ<0.55标准下的前兆震群的预测能力,认为,震群序列的ρ值具有一定的预报效能。     

PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF REGRESSION MODELS.PART Ⅰ:STANDARD DEVIATION OF PREDICTION ERRORS (SDEP)

The standard deviation of prediction errors(SDEP)is used to evaluate and compare the predictive abilityof some regression models,namely MLR,ACE and linear and non-linear PLS,the last being the bestone.The parameter is determined by a cross-validation approach as an average of several runs obtainedon forming groups in a random way.The variation in SDEP with the number of latent variables in PLSis also discussed.     

公主岭市西部水源地地下水系统初步研究

本文以公主岭市西部水源地为例,以地下水系统的观点,对该区进行了全面的系统化、模型化和最优化,建立了地下水系统的预报模型和管理模型,推求了各系统的资源量及水位、水质分布规律,最后得出了该区地下水最佳开采量和取水工程方案。     

Predicted interplanetary shocks/particles at Mars compared with in-situ observations: An overview

The biological and technological consequences of long-duration, solar-related, energetic particle radiation for manned/unmanned spacecraft warrant that consideration be given to providing reliable space weather predictions for future space missions to planet Mars. An account is, herein, provided of how the HAFv.2 numerical model was applied to predict the arrivals of four, flare-related, shocks at Mars generated during a >20-day active period on the Sun in March 1989, and of the arrival of another composite shock produced in association with a 10-day period of solar activity in December 2006. These predictions are compared with in-situ measurements of shock signatures at Mars recorded, in the former case, by the solar-low-energy-detector (SLED) and by the low-energy-telescope (LET) aboard the Phobos-2 spacecraft and, in the latter case, in data recorded by the ASPERA-3/IMA instrument aboard Mars Express. The success of the predictions is discussed and the requirement for further validation of the modeling technique using a large statistical sample pointed out. In-situ measurements made aboard Mars Express by the ASPERA-3/IMA experiment during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 can provide data relevant to such validation. The successful application of a SOLar Particle ENgineering COde (SOLPENCO), that estimates solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes and fluences at the Earth, to the case of an energetic particle event at Mars (6 March 1989) is discussed. Measurements of SEP events recorded by the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) supplemented by Mars Express measurements can potentially allow the predictions of SOLPENCO to be further studied downstream using a large statistical sample. However, we are presently only at the beginning of our understanding of the complex Sun-Earth-Mars scenarios that give rise to shock/particle events in the close Martian environment.     

Comparison of existing methods for building triangular irregular network,models of terrain from grid digital elevation models

Abstract

Triangulated irregular networks (TINs) are increasingly popular for their efficiency in data storage and their ability to accommodate irregularly spaced elevation points for many applications of geographical information systems. This paper reviews and evaluates various methods for extracting TINs from dense digital elevation models (DEMs) on a sample DEM. Both structural and statistical comparisons show that the methods perform with different rates of success in different settings. Users of DEM to TIN conversion methods should be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods in addition to their own purposes before conducting the conversion.     

Modelling distribution of marine benthos from hydroacoustics and underwater video

Broad-scale mapping of marine benthos is required for marine resource management and conservation. This study combines textural derivatives based on bathymetry from multibeam hydroacoustics with underwater video observations to model and map sessile biota between 10- and 60-m water depth over 35 km² in Point Addis Marine National Park (MNP), Vic., Australia. Classification tree models and maps were developed for macroalgae (all types, mixed red algae, Ecklonia, and rhodoliths) and sessile invertebrates (all types, sponges, and ascidians). Model accuracy was tested on 25% of the video observation dataset reserved from modelling. Models fit well for most macroalgae categories (correct classification rates of 67–84%), but are not as good for sessile invertebrate classes (correct classification rates of 57–62%). The poor fit of the sessile invertebrate models may be the combined result of grouping organisms with different environmental requirements and the effect of false absences recorded during video interpretation due to poor image quality. Probability maps, binary single-class maps, and multi-class maps supply spatially explicit, detailed information on the distribution of sessile benthic biota within the MNP and provide information at a landscape-scale for ecological investigations and marine management.     

突出小地震活动事件作为中强震短临预报判据的研究

对新疆1970年以来突出小震活动事件进行了统计分析,给出突出小地震活动事件与5级以上中强震的对应关系,提出以突出小地震活动事件中小地震发生的时间间隔和频度预报中强震的短期判据。