浙江省连续运行卫星定位服务系统技术设计与试验

区域连续运行卫星定位服务系统可为用户提供包括实时高精度位置信息在内的多功能服务系统,近几年,在国内外得到迅速地发展。浙江省有十万多平方公里的陆地面积,如何在如此大的范围内建设连续运行卫星定位服务系统是本文的主要研究内容。本文在充分分析目前相关技术和设备的基础上,从浙江省的实际情况出发,制定科学合理的系统指标以及建设方案,满足系统的科学建设和正常运行的指导要求,并通过试验进行了验证。     

Patterns in the Turkish reinsurance claim data, 1998–2002: An application of the extreme value theory

The devastating 1999 Marmara and Düzce earthquakes led to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has a range of applications from stock market changes to natural disasters like floods and hurricanes. Here EVT is fitted to the ordinary and earthquake reinsurance claims of Turkey.     

国家级气象资料存储检索系统的建立

对国家级气象资料存储检索系统的需求进行了分析，进而对系统进行了功能设计，并在技术调研和分析的基础上确定了功能实现的技术路线:在数据管理方面采用数据库和文件系统相结合的方式；在存储管理方面采用分级存储管理模式，并解决了数据库的分级存储管理技术；在检索应用方面提供了程序调用式检索方式，并通过采用中间件技术实现了基于B/S结构的程序调用式检索；通过选用HPSS技术解决了由异种机型构成的高性能计算机群存储池问题；通过分别建立实时数据库和综合数据库解决了气象资料的规范化存储和实时业务使用需求之间的矛盾；在应用软件开发方面严格按照有关规范进行。     

发现过程模型法对大港陆地探区油气资源的评价

对现有油气资源基本评价方法的原理、优缺点、适应性做了分析总结，重点剖析了在油藏总体分布服从帕莱托分布基础上建立起来的发现过程模型法．同时根据已建立的油气藏总体预测模型，对符合发现过程模型的大港陆地古近系成藏体系进行了油气资源评价。     

正交法在注浆材料优化设计中的应用

应用正交试验设计法，对粘土固化浆液的配比进行了优化，得到了最佳配比，并将其应用于洛湛铁路益娄段岩溶路基的注浆加固，收到了很好的整治效果。     

SEQUENTIAL STIFFNESS DESIGN FOR SEISMIC DRIFT RANGES OF A SHEAR BUILDING–PILE–SOIL SYSTEM

A shear building supported by a prescribed pile–soil system is subjected to bedrock earthquake input. A new design procedure is presented for generating a sequence of stiffness designs satisfying the constraints on interstorey drifts. The mean peak interstorey drifts of the shear building subjected to a set of spectrum-compatible ground motions at the bedrock are evaluated by a modal combination rule. Tuning of the fundamental natural period of a shear building with a fixed base with that of a shear beam ground results in a non-monotonic sequence of stiffness designs with respect to a ground stiffness parameter and previous approaches cannot be applied to such a problem. This difficulty in finding such a non-monotonic sequence is overcome by utilizing the ground stiffness parameter and the superstructure stiffness parameter alternately in multiple design phases and by developing a new multi-phase perturbation technique. Fundamental characteristics of this sequence of stiffness designs and the effect of ground stiffnesses on the design of the shear building are disclosed. It is further shown that the stiffness contour method is also useful for the design procedure such that a scattering effect in the estimates of ground stiffnesses is taken into account. The usefulness of the proposed procedure of sequential stiffness design and contour line method is demonstrated through several sequential design examples.     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Optimal design of two-dimensional wings in ground effect using multi-objective genetic algorithm

The shape optimization of the 2-dimensional wing in ground effect (WIG) has been performed by the integration of CFD (computational fluid dynamics) and MOGA (multi-objective genetic algorithm). Because of the trade-off between the aerodynamic forces and the height stability, it is difficult to satisfy the design requirements of efficiency and stability at the same time. In this study, the lift coefficient, the lift-drag ratio and the static height stability are chosen as the objective functions to obtain the optimal wing profiles of a WIG craft. An NACA0015 airfoil is used for the baseline model; the aerodynamic characteristics of the base model are compared with that of the optimal solutions. The profile of the airfoil is constructed by four Bezier curves with fourteen control points resulting in the eighteen coordinates, which are adopted as the design variables. The optimal solutions of the multi-objective optimization are not unique but a set of the non-dominated optima: the Pareto frontiers or a Pareto set. As the results of the multi-objective optimization, the forty Pareto optima, which include high-lift, high-efficiency, and more stable airfoils on the edge of the 3-dimensional objective space, are obtained at thirty evolutions of the generation.     

Application of the threshold method to air quality data

A new threshold method is explained in a manner suitable for workers in the general scientific area. Its application to the prediction of extreme pollutant concentrations is described and the results are compared with those of a conventional procedure, using a set of published data. A discussion concerning the difficulties of the presently used statistical technique is also included.