台湾西南部泥岩土地利用型态与环境劣化趋势之分析

台湾泥岩恶地因其特殊之土壤理化性质及区域微气候的相互恶性循环，衍生生态环境等问题。在以往之35年，裸化面积从1967年的2532hm^2，至2001年11月已扩大为15539hm^2。其表土大量流失、崩塌、河川含砂量激增、植被退化与微气候变异等破坏，更显示泥岩之环境劣化问题。以SPOT卫星影像判识泥岩裸露面积，探讨不同时期之地景变异，并应用地景生态理论量化泥岩地表不同土地利用之空间结构变化，分析地景结构变迁之生态内涵与生态指标意义。因子分析结果其主要变异为多样性因子与形状破碎型因子所影响，而应用马可夫链模式计算出不同时期之土地利用变迁内涵，此结果搭配指标分析可解释泥岩裸露面积与竹林面积皆持续扩大，乃由人为土地利用之活动及植被变迁所引起。     

Disjunctive Kriging with Hard and Imprecise Data

This paper presents a methodology for assessing local probability distributions by disjunctive kriging when the available data set contains some imprecise measurements, like noisy or soft information or interval constraints. The basic idea consists in replacing the set of imprecise data by a set of pseudohard data simulated from their posterior distribution; an iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to achieve such a simulation step. The whole procedure is repeated many times and the final result is the average of the disjunctive kriging estimates computed from each simulated data set. Being data-independent, the kriging weights need to be calculated only once, which enables fast computing. The simulation procedure requires encoding each datum as a pre-posterior distribution and assuming a Markov property to allow the updating of pre-posterior distributions into posterior ones. Although it suffers some imperfections, disjunctive kriging turns out to be a much more flexible approach than conditional expectation, because of the vast class of models that allows its computation, namely isofactorial models.     

The Impact of Climatic and Environmental Factors on n-Alkanes Indices in Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

n-Alkanes are widely used in paleoenvironmental reconstructions.However,our understanding of changes in the distribution of n-alkanes with climatic and environmental factors remains unclear in arid/semi-arid regions.We sampled 26 surface sediments from three climatic zones across the southwestern Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the sensitivity of chain length distributions of n-alkanes to climatic and environmental parameters.Our observations demonstrate that average chain length (ACL), proportion of aquatic macrophyte (Paq),carbon preference index (CPI) and ratio of the contents of nC27 and nC31 (nC27/nC31) are all sensitive to hydroclimatic conditions.In contrast to commonly-adopted assumptions,the correlations between these indices and hydrological parameters are not always good,which indicates that the interpretation of n-alkane indices is special on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau.These might be related to the vegetation characteristics and seasonality of biological activity,and need to be considered in paleoclimatic reconstruction.The impact of seasonal precipitation on n-alkanes indices was also evaluated.     

绿色交通目标下集装箱“公转铁”的CO2减排潜力评估

为提高集装箱“公转铁”减排潜力评估结果的准确性,在分析“公转铁”减排原理的基础上,综合考虑空箱调运和重箱运输“门到门”运输链的干线运输、端点装卸、电力设备作业、集卡短驳、公铁中转等排放,引入反映活动类型、设备结构、能源生命周期排放的参数,对作业活动-方式结构-能耗强度-排放因子（ASIF）方法进行改进,建立“公转铁”减排潜力评估框架。以义乌—宁波港域出口集装箱运输为例,通过实地调研和公开文献获取数据,进行实证研究。结果表明,如果忽略必要因素将会导致每TEU运输需求“公转铁”的CO₂减排率被高估0.50~36.73个百分点;最佳“公转铁”情景可减排3.42万t CO₂,相应减排率为13.58%。研究结果可为政府相关部门客观评估“公转铁”的减排潜力、制定有效的“公转铁”政策措施提供理论支持。     

苹果手机零部件全球价值链的价值分配与中国角色演变

产品内分工已成为支配当代企业分工与产品生产的重要模式。研究智能手机生产网络价值分配格局,对辨析中国大陆企业在移动通讯产业价值链中所处地位与演进具有重要意义。论文利用2012—2017年苹果公司供应商数据,以其零部件价值含量与技术要求为测度标准,分析了苹果手机零部件全球价值链的分配特征以及中国大陆企业在其中的地位变化。发现：高价值环节的供应商主要以美国、日本、韩国为主,而中低价值环节则以中国台湾、日本和中国大陆供应商为主,且中国大陆与中国台湾在中间环节占据重要地位。处于价值链高端的供应商分支数量在中国大陆和美国缩减明显,日本、韩国较为稳定,中国台湾增加明显。在价值链的中低端环节,供应商分支趋向中国大陆集中。印度、巴西以及越南等地成为新的中低端价值环节转移承接地。近年来,中国大陆在苹果手机价值链的高端环节得到了提升,长三角、珠三角、京津冀、成渝、中原地区等地逐渐形成了苹果供应商分支的集聚区域,呈现出零部件生产的区域分工特征。长三角(上海-苏州为核心)与珠三角(深圳-东莞为核心),承接了价值链多个生产环节,是中国大陆嵌入苹果手机生产网络的主要阵地。成渝地区既承接了芯片类企业布局,也承接了价值链低端的组装代工和包装服务环节,呈现出在价值链两端双向承接的特征。环渤海、福建及湖南等地主要承接苹果手机价值链的中间环节,而中原地区主要以苹果手机组装与包装服务为主,承接价值链的低端环节。最后,论文从创新驱动、政府作用与外资等方面探讨了影响中国大陆地位提升的因素。     

一种海洋混合层深度的智能识别方法研究

文章提出了一种识别混合层深度的人工智能方法。该方法在温度(密度)与压强(或深度)间建立线性模型, 并且将其系数和方差做成一组表征廓线特征的统计量。初始时为模型设定一个主观的先验分布, 在一个自海表向下移动的窗口内通过贝叶斯链式法则和最小描述长度原理学习新数据, 得到系数均值的最大后验概率估计。用F-检验识别系数发生突变的位置, 以此确定混合层的存在性及其深度。通过2017年2月太平洋海域的地转海洋学实时观测阵(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography, ARGO)数据进行测试, 并且以质量因子(Quality Index, QI)值作为判断识别混合层深度结果准确性的依据, 发现该方法相比于梯度法、阈值法、混合法、相对变化法、最大角度法和最优线性插值法在识别结果上具备更大的QI值。表明该方法能够准确识别混合层深度。     

钙质土中重力串锚水平承载力特性有限元研究

目前没有规范给出串锚的水平承载力计算公式,为了利用有限元法研究串锚水平承载力特性,采用相关理论计算以及室内试验的方法来验证有限元法模拟计算的可靠性。实践证明,有限元法具有较高的计算精度。利用有限元分析软件ABAQUS建立了串锚-土体模型,模拟串锚在水平荷载作用下破坏过程,研究了串锚在水平荷载作用下破坏机理,从而得到了串锚水平承载力特性。在相同的工况条件下,串锚的水平承载力与其锚链长度有关,在一定范围内,增加锚链的长度可以提高串锚的水平承载力;串锚的水平承载力不是相应的单个锚的水平承载力相加,其水平承载力小于相应的单个锚水平承载力之和,在进行串锚水平承载力设计计算时应给与相应的考虑。     

Simulation of landscape spatial layout evolution in rural-urban fringe areas: a case study of Ganjingzi District

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban spaces has accelerated the mutual evolution of landscape types. Analyzing and simulating spatio-temporal dynamic features of urban landscape can help to reveal its driving mechanisms and facilitate reasonable planning of urban land resources. The purpose of this study was to design a hybrid cellular automata model to simulate dynamic change in urban landscapes. The model consists of four parts: a geospatial partition, a Markov chain (MC), a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), and cellular automata (CA). This study employed multivariate land use data for the period 2000–2015 to conduct spatial clustering for the Ganjingzi District and to simulate landscape status evolution via a divisional composite cellular automaton model. During the period of 2000–2015, construction land and forest land areas in Ganjingzi District increased by 19.43% and 15.19%, respectively, whereas farmland, garden lands, and other land areas decreased by 43.42%, 52.14%, and 75.97%, respectively. Land use conversion potentials in different sub-regions show different characteristics in space. The overall land-change prediction accuracy for the subarea-composite model is 3% higher than that of the non-partitioned model, and misses are reduced by 3.1%. Therefore, by integrating geospatial zoning and the MLP-ANN hybrid method, the land type conversion rules of different zonings can be obtained, allowing for more effective simulations of future urban land use change. The hybrid cellular automata model developed here will provide a reference for urban planning and policy formulation.     

船载海水温度观测研究

通过研究国家相关海洋观测标准对海水温度观测的规约,结合当前船载水温观测的现状,提出了基于总线的船载磁吸附温度链式观测方法,并对其在结构设计、理论模型、算法等多方面进行了阐述.通过多个竖直分布的温度传感器实时观测,采用自适应参数化算法,有效减少了风浪、海流、热辐射等方面的影响,具有观测层深相对固定、精度高等特点,可实现船...