Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) lahars

Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits.     

A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.     

Large-scale floodplain modelling

A two-dimensional horizontal finite element numerical model (RMA-2) was applied to a 24 km river channel-floodplain reach in West Germany. Initial results indicate that finite element schemes may successfully estimate inundation in large-scale floodplain applications. Potentially, the resulting detailed velocity vector distributions and identification of inundation zones throughout storm events could provide an insight into the present day sedimentary environment on the floodplain.     

Mapping spatio-temporal flood inundation dynamics at large river basin scale using time-series flow data and MODIS imagery

Flood inundation is crucial to the survival and prosperity of flora and fauna communities in floodplain and wetland ecosystems. This study tried to map flood inundation characteristics in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, utilizing hydrological and remotely sensed data. It integrated river flow time series and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images to map inundation dynamics over the study area on both temporal and spatial dimensions. Flow data were analyzed to derive flow peaks and Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEPs) using the annual flood series method. The peaks were linked with MODIS images for inundation detection. Ten annual maximum inundation maps were generated for water years 2001–2010, which were then overlaid to derive an inundation frequency map. AEPs were also combined with the annual maximum inundation maps to derive an inundation probability map. The resultant maps revealed spatial and temporal patterns of flood inundation in the basin, which will benefit ecological and environmental studies when considering response of floodplain and wetland ecosystems to flood inundation.     

The effects of simulated inundation duration and frequency on litter decomposition: A one-year experiment

There is major uncertainty in the responses of litter decomposition to the inundation regimes in field studies, mainly because of the difficulties in identification of the individual effect of duration and frequency using field studies alone. The interactive role of inundation regime and litter quality also remains unclear. The responses of mass loss to simulated inundation regime (duration and frequency) and litter quality were investigated in leaves of Carex brevicuspis and leaves and stems of Miscanthus sacchariflorus from Dongting Lake, China. Three litter types differing in litter quality were incubated under seven different inundations over 360 days (three single inundations of 90, 180, and 360 days; three repeated 180-day inundations of 2, 3, and 6 times; and no inundations) in a pond near Dongting Lake. Initial N and P contents were highest in C. brevicuspis leaves, intermediate in M. sacchariflorus leaves, and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems, whereas the organic C, cellulose, and lignin contents were ranked in the opposite order among the three litter types. Decomposition rate was highest in M. sacchariflorus leaves (0.00222–0.00900 day⁻¹), intermediate in C. brevicuspis leaves (0.00135–0.00500 day⁻¹), and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems (0.00080–0.00100 day⁻¹). The decomposition rate of both C. brevicuspis and M. sacchariflorus leaves increased with increasing inundation duration or decreasing frequency. However, both duration and frequency of inundation had no effect on decomposition of M. sacchariflorus stems. At the end of the incubation, N mineralization was complete in leaf litters with increasing rates with increasing inundation duration or decreasing inundation frequency, but accumulation was found in M. sacchariflorus stems. Organic C decayed quickly in both leaf litters compared with the stem litter. These data indicate that inundation regime has no effect on the decomposition of refractory stem litter while prolonged and stable inundation stimulates the degradation of labile leaf litter.     

Coastal Case Study-Clarence City Council

This report chooses Clarence City Council as the coastal jurisdiction and analyzes its planning processes and instruments for its potential to build resilience to climate change impacts on the coast. In the first part, it introduces the change of Australia’s climate and consequences of climate change. Based on analysis of sea level rise, inundation and erosion risk, it shows climate change has impacts on Clarence coastal areas in Tasmania. This paper shows the three key elements for successful coastal management (retreat, accommodation and protection) and discusses the factors that impede resilience. Finally, there are some recommendations that may be helpful for climate change impacts and local council     

Simulation of the Arabian Sea Tsunami propagation generated due to 1945 Makran Earthquake and its effect on western parts of Gujarat (India)

The 1945 Tsunami generated due to Makran Earthquake in the Arabian Sea was the most devastating tsunami in the history of the Arabian Sea and caused severe damage to property and loss of life. It occurred on 28th November 1945, 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of 8.0 (M _w), originating off the Makran Coast of Pakistan in the Arabian Sea. It has impacted as far as Mumbai in India and was noticed up to Karvar Coast, Karnataka. More than 4,000 people were killed as a result of the earthquake and the tsunami. In this paper an attempt is made for a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation from the source, its propagation into the Arabian Sea and its effect on the western coast of India through the use of a numerical model, referred to as Tunami-N2. The present simulation is carried out for a duration of 300 min. It is observed from the results that the simulated arrival time of tsunami waves at the western coast of India is in good agreement with the available data sources. The paper also presents run-up elevation maps prepared using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data, showing the possible area of inundation due to various wave heights along different parts of the Gujarat Coast. Thus, these results will be useful in planning the protection measures against inundation due to tsunami and in the implementation of a warning system.     

Sea Levels and Coastal Inundation Due to Tropical Cyclones in Indian Coastal Regions of Andhra and Orissa

Coastal inundation associated with extreme sea levels is the main factor which leads to the loss of life and property whenever a severe tropical cyclonic storm hits the Indian coasts. The Andhra and Orissa coasts are most vulnerable for coastal inundation due to extreme rise in sea levels associated with tropical cyclones. Loss of life may be minimized if extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding is predicted well in advance. Keeping this in view, location specific coastal inundation models are developed and applied for the Andhra and Orissa coasts of India. Several numerical experiments are carried out using the data of past severe cyclones that struck these regions. The simulated inland inundation distances are found to be in general agreement with the reported flooding.     

极坐标变换变边界模型及其应用

Ｊｏｈｎｓ变边界模型用于海湾海域风暴潮漫滩计算是，由于岸界变曲较大，而影响了计算的稳定性和精度，本文针对这个问题，导出了极坐标下的连续移动边界模型，从而改善了对岸界弯曲较大海域的风暴潮漫滩计算，通过对１９６９年黄河口沿岸一带水域风暴潮漫滩的模拟，证明这种极坐标变边界模型用于海湾海域的风暴潮漫滩计算，优于Ｊｏｈｎｓ变边界模型。     

Floodplain inundation: Processes and relationships with channel discharge

The factors affecting the relationship between channel discharge and volume of inundation are discussed. For many floodplains this relationship is not simple, but involves hysteretic effects which vary according to the hydrological characteristics of individual floods and the way in which these interact with the surface form of the floodplain reach. Some methods of deriving or estimating the extent of the hysteresis on floodplain reaches are suggested, although an acute lack of available data prevents detailed examination at present. Further investigations are required before floodplain conductivity relations can be used as an aid to flood routing procedures or in floodplain management problems. A major priority must be the acquisition of sequential inundation data.