粤港澳大湾区港口供应链优化研究

为充分发挥粤港澳大湾区港口的竞争优势,促进港口经济的协调发展,文章基于粤港澳大湾区主要港口的实际情况,构建供应链博弈模型并进行数值仿真,研究相关因素对深圳港和香港港绩效的影响。研究结果表明:随着商品价格和库存成本的提高,货物从深圳港向香港港转移,但转移幅度逐渐趋缓;深圳港在中低端商品的货源收集方面具有明显的竞争优势,而香港港对高端商品的吸引力更强;货运结构逐渐向中高端商品过渡对于提高港口收益具有促进作用,其中深圳港应通过降低商品库存成本而降低经营风险;深中通道和港珠澳大桥通车有效缩短腹地运输时间,对于绝大部分商品价格和库存成本组合都将提高粤港澳大湾区港口的总收益。     

北京奥运演练精细化预报方法及其检验评估

2007年北京奥运演练期间精细化场馆客观预报方法,即支持向量机方法(SVM)和半周期函数拟合(HPFF)预报方法,为场馆精细化预报产品的制作提供了有力的技术支撑.利用2007年8月1-26日国家体育场、顺义水上中心等5个奥运场馆的5种地面气象要素(气温、相对湿度、风向、风速、和3小时累积降水量)观测资料,对SVM和HPFF客观预报方法以及预报员在客观方法基础上制作的3天逐3小时预报进行了检验评估.结果表明:(1)两种客观方法相比较,HPFF方法对于预报连续变化的气象要素(如气温、相对湿度和风速)的精细预报比SVM方法预报技巧高;而对不连续变化的变量(如:风向)的预报技巧低于SVM方法.(2)预报员制作精细要素预报在很大程度上依靠客观方法.预报员对于气温、相对湿度和风速的预报技巧略高于客观方法,对于降水和风向的预报技巧与客观方法相当.尽管预报员对客观方法的修正能力比较有限,但具有对两种客观方法结果做出择优选择的综合判别能力;(3)预报员0～63小时气温预报平均绝对误差约为1.8℃,气温预报误差≤1℃的准确率在43%左右,预报误差随预报时效变化不大;0～24小时相对湿度预报平均绝对误差约为10%,相对湿度预报误差≤10%的准确率是60%,误差随预报时效而有所增大;0～63小时风向预报准确率约20%,预报准确率随预报时效变化不大;0～63小时风速预报平均绝对误差在0.8～1.4m·s-1之间.     

Conservation and community in the new South Africa: A case study of the Mahushe Shongwe Game Reserve

The idealization of natural landscapes and peoples during colonialism, coupled with the popularity of sustainable development in the postcolonial era, has contributed to the expansion of conservation planning throughout the African continent. Concerns surrounding the promotion of national and international conservation agendas at the expense of local livelihood needs have generated interest in community conservation projects that attempt to include local participation and knowledge in natural resource management. The early excitement associated with community conservation has waned in light of recent assessments that it has been unsuccessful in meeting its ecological and social goals. This parallels other research that suggests communities are understood in generic or homogenous ways that influence how these initiatives are understood. Using a case study of the Mahushe Shongwe Game Reserve, this paper evaluates how rural households access environmental and economic resources to produce livelihoods, and how these access patterns impact their views of the project. It is argued that there are significant livelihood variations within the community that shape the ways households engage with, and benefit from, conservation planning. Rather than strictly viewing Mahushe Shongwe as a constraint to environmental resource access or site for limited employment, community members identify a number of benefits from its existence including education and development opportunities. Additionally, transformations in governance systems in the region impact community views of the project since younger residents are less likely to engage with the Matsamo Tribal Authority, which participates in managing the reserve. The consequence is that conservation has various impacts and meanings within a specific community that remain tied to the livelihood and governance systems being renegotiated in the post-apartheid era.     

中国旅游企业集团战略联盟的博弈分析

加入WTO后，中国旅游企业面临前所未有的挑战和冲击。为适应经济形式的发展。中国旅游企业中开始大规模的联合、重组和改制。在旅游企业的整合过程中，以战略联盟的形式来实现企业的规模经营是中国旅游企业生存和发展的有效措施之一。在战略联盟过程中，以动态博弈的方法对企业之间的联盟做出及时、有效的分析，可使旅游企业清楚自己在联盟中的地位与得失，最大限度的避免负效应，力争获得最大的经济效益。     

文化战火中的凤凰涅槃——解读澳大利亚作家米勒的小说《祖先游戏》

《祖先游戏》是澳大利亚作家亚历克斯·米勒对离开中国大陆 ,流浪澳大利亚的中国移民生活经历的重构与阐述。由生活在澳大利亚文化夹缝里的凤氏家族四代移民 ,可见澳大利亚从文化帝国主义到多元文化主义的演变中 ,中国移民迷失、堕落和重生的心灵轨迹。     

Impacts of hegemony and shifts in dominance on marine capture fisheries

Catch data indicates that the world’s 25 largest marine capture fisheries have generally comprised some 40–50% of the total annual reported catch (1950–2012). From a game theory perspective, there is considerable diversity across these 25 fisheries, both in terms of the number of players and the management paradigms. Here, a dominance-oriented classification system is proposed, according to which fisheries are categorized into: (1) hegemonic systems with single-player dominance; (2) coupled systems with two-player dominance; (3) group systems with shared dominance; (4) systems with no dominant player. Among these categories, the fourth represents perhaps the greatest challenge to sustainable management, while also demonstrating the challenges of managing common pool marine ecosystem services in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). The survey and analysis highlights how hegemonic conditions tend to preclude the establishment of cooperative agreements irrespective of the number of players involved in the fishery. Shifts in dominance away from hegemony, as demonstrated most recently in the case of the highly migratory Pacific Saury, can open the door to greater cooperation. Movement of fish stocks and displacement of fishing activities, due for example to climate change, have the capacity to cause major shifts in dominance and, in some cases, destabilize existing cooperative mechanisms.     

基于游戏引擎技术的地铁3维虚拟演练系统的开发与实现

根据地铁反恐实战模拟演练的需要,以地铁火灾事件处置为例,采用游戏引擎技术,开发了地铁3维虚拟演练系统,对地铁内部环境进行了逼真模拟,在3维环境下,实现了信息查询、多媒体信息关联展示、动态视频调用等功能,并可以动态操作控制3维虚拟对象,进行事件的动态处置,在基于3维的虚拟演练方面,做了有益的探索与尝试。     

湖南省自然资源月度执法监管工作机制探讨

分析了当前我国常用的几种执法监管方式的优缺点,结合前人的研究经验和省情实际,提出了基于"天-空-地-人"一体化月度监测体系的"一盘棋"执法监管系统,以形成湖南省自然资源违法行为"月发现、月制止、月处置"的工作机制.实践表明该工作机制为湖南省全面规范自然资源管理与利用秩序提供了参考依据,取得了阶段性的应用成效.     

基于博弈视角的中韩渔业事件成因与对策分析

近年来中韩渔业事件频发,引起社会广泛关注。文章通过构建博弈模型分析了中韩渔业事件的产生原因,并提出解决对策:中方应通过增殖放流等手段修复我国近海渔业资源;扶持渔民转业转产推进渔业产业结构调整;韩方应避免因暴力执法给两国关系造成伤害;双方应引入基于入渔配额分配机制的正向激励制度,破解当前冲突与困境。     

基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例

大国地缘政治博弈事关国家安全,影响世界格局。通过对地理要素的综合考量构建了地缘影响力模型,并基于博弈论建立了钓鱼岛问题大国地缘政治博弈树,对中美博弈过程进行了分析。最后针对钓鱼岛问题4种博弈走势提出了战略应对参考建议。研究结果表明：①在中国大陆主导时,各国保持合作将共赢,一旦动武,若美俄地缘战略决策指数不高,形势对中国大陆不利。②当美国地缘战略决策指数较小,俄罗斯较大时,是解决钓鱼岛问题的战略良机。③中国台湾是中国解决钓鱼岛问题的重要影响因素,要灵活把握与处理。④ 在4种战略博弈形势下,均存在中美战略博弈的纳什均衡,但美国、日本和中国台湾有一定概率铤而走险,要保持警惕并做好战略应对。⑤ 博弈分析结果较为客观的反映了钓鱼岛问题的多种战略走向,并与当前相关大国关于钓鱼岛问题的战略基本吻合,印证了地缘影响力模型对地理要素量化的可行性以及大国地缘政治博弈分析方法的合理性。