自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

浅论经济增长与物价水平的关系

从交易方程出发，初步分析了经济增长与物价水平的关系，得到了一些有益的结果。     

专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。     

渔业企业投资经济效益评估

在市场经济的条件下,渔业企业作为一个独立的投资主体,对任何一项投资,它都会考虑其经济效益.本文通过一个实例,阐述了渔业企业在投资之前,如何从财务上评估该项投资的经济效益.     

运输系统的区域效应研究

运输系统改进—运距缩短—产业布局调整这一空间过程对不同的区域可能具有完全不同的意义。本文通过对一个两区域—两部门经济模型的研究得出结论:当较落后的资源产区与经济中心之间的距离由于运输系统的改进而缩短时,资源产区的经济结构向单一化转变,初级产品的生产和输出在经济建设中逐渐占主导地位,加工工业逐渐萎缩,地方经济发展受到阻碍,而且这种变化是在距离的某一特定值处突然出现的,带有跃变的性质。这一研究结果表明,对区域运输系统的任何改进措施都应该慎而行之,以免造成与本来目标相悖的区域效应。     

Beyond the numbers: Understanding the value of vegetation to rural livelihoods in Africa

Different types of vegetation found in local environments are of value to rural livelihoods of many African households. However, the dominant way of expressing this value, which is mainly through economic valuation studies, is potentially limiting this knowledge’s usefulness in policy and research, due to the inability to present full picture. Using literature review and insights from field work, the paper argues that realized and notional values of vegetation to rural livelihoods are socially constructed and contested, and - in addition to understanding local livelihood context, which include social difference, and ecological dynamics - a focus on social institutions as terrains of negotiation is crucial. This means that resource value in rural livelihoods can be realized through contested and negotiated access arrangements that are mediated by complex institutions at local and external levels.     

基于贡献权重叠加法的滑坡风险区划

贡献权重叠加法是对滑坡本底因子和承灾体因子在滑坡发育中的贡献率进行统计后,通过贡献率均值化、规一化处理,利用权重转换模型计算出每一个因子内部的权重——自权重和因子相互之间的权重——互权重。将滑坡因子、承灾体因子和两者的自权重、互权重分别相乘叠加,得到滑坡危险度和易损度区划结果,再将2项结果相乘得出滑坡风险区划结果。     

东海浮游翼足类(Pteropods)数量分布的研究

根据1997～2000年东海海域23°30'～33°00'N,118°30'～128°00'E的4个季节海洋调查资料,运用定量、定性方法,探讨了东海浮游翼足类总丰度的平面分布、季节变化及变化的动力学机制.结果表明,东海翼足类总丰度和出现频率有明显的季节变化,均为秋季最高,夏季次之,春季最低;总丰度在各个季节基本上呈东海南部高于北部、外海高于近海的分布趋势;春季的尖笔帽螺(Creseis acicula)、夏季的锥笔帽螺(Creseis virgula)、秋季的蝴蝶螺(Desmopterus papilio)和冬季的马蹄螔螺(Limacina trochiformis)是导致总丰度季节变化的最主要的种类;冬、春和夏3个季节丰度变化及4季总丰度的变化同表层或10m层水温有非常显著的线性相关关系,与底层温度及盐度的相关关系不显著.夏季翼足类高丰度区位于台湾暖流与黑潮暖流的分支处;从夏季到秋季,翼足类随着台湾暖流向北扩展,并在与长江冲淡水,闽浙沿岸水团,黄海水团等交汇处形成高丰度(大于500×10-2个/m3)和较高丰度(250×10-2～500×10-2个/m3)分布区.水温和海流是影响东海翼足类总丰度分布的主要环境因素.     

The Potential for Environmentally Sound Development of Marine Deposits of Potassic and Phosphatic Minerals Offshore, Southern Africa

Extensive potassium and phosphorous-rich mineralization occurs on the outer continental shelf of the southern and west coasts of South Africa and Nambia. This article reviews the potential of exploiting these deposits in an environmentally sound manner for the manufacture of fertilizer. At present, reserves of potash and phosphate fertilizer are exploited from terresterial deposits, the majority being surface mined. The use of fertilizer in South Africa has shown no growth in the past 13 years, and, in some years, usage has even declined. On average, over the last decade, South Africa has consumed 2 million Mt of fertilizer (including nitrogen) per annum, the vast majority of phosphate fertilizer being produced by FOSKOR from the Phalaborwa Igneous Complex. Potash fertilizer is imported into South Africa. Although fertilizer consumption is expected to decrease in the short-term, there are good future prospects for the domestic and international fertilizer market. Considerable research into both glauconitic (containing K 2 O) and phosphatic deposits along the southern African continental shelf indicate that these sedimentary deposits have a complex genesis and mineralization. Of the total K 2 O reserves of 1300 million Mt on the southern African margin, 1000 million Mt is located off the southern African west coast, and the remainder situated on the Agulhas Bank. The largest glauconite concentration ( ±300 million Mt K 2 O) off southern Africa lies west of Saldanha Bay, South Africa. The distribution of P 2 O 5 off southern Africa is dominated by the vast deposit between Walvis Bay and Luderitz, Nambia. This reserve is estimated to contain 1000 million Mt of greater than 5% P 2 O 5 in a relatively small area of about 10000 km2. The phosphorite deposit south of Saldanha Bay constitutes a reserve of ±3500 million Mt of apatite and the deposit on the Agulhas Bank comprises 5500 million Mt. The phosphate deposit off Saldanha Bay occurs as an extensive, low to medium grade deposit. Although vast resources of potash and phosphatic minerals occur along the southern African outer continental shelf the expensive nature of marine exploitation may render most of these deposits, especially the phosphates, subeconomic. The low price of fertilizer andextensive natureontheonland deposits, although confined to asmallnumber of countries, mean that it will not be financially viable to extract these deposits. Assuming high grade glauconitic sand with the right composition can be located, the high market price indicates good future prospects for these potash deposits.     

Population growth and the development of a central place system

This paper describes the spatial and functional evolution of a central place system as market conditions change with population growth. Utilizing a partial equilibrium optimization model, we examine the spatial response of two economic sectors to increases in market populations resulting from natural increase and migration. Response in both sectors is conditioned by threshold demand, with factor prices also affecting one of the sectors. As the central place system evolves it exhibits spatial and functional characteristics that are initially consistent with a Löschian landscape, then a Christallerian landscape at higher populations, while at even larger populations Krugman’s landscape emerges.