土地利用和气候变化对海河流域蒸散发时空变化的影响

蒸散发（ET）是水文能量循环和气候系统的关键环节,研究ET的时空变化特征及其响应土地利用和气候变化的驱动机制对于理清流域水资源和气候变化的关系具有重要的意义。本文基于MOD16/ET数据集定量分析了海河流域2000-2014年ET的时空变化特征,并结合时序气温降水数据和土地利用数据,采用相关分析方法定量探索了ET与气候因子的驱动力关系。结果表明：① 海河流域2000-2014年ET表现为较为显著的空间分布格局,呈现出北部和南部高、西北部和中东部低的分布特性。不同土地利用类型的多年ET呈林地>草地>耕地>其他类型的特征;② 2000-2014年海河流域年均ET波动范围为371.96~441.29 mm/a,多年ET的均值为398.69 mm/a,平均相对变化率为-0.41%,整体呈下降趋势;③ 多年月ET与气温和降水均呈单峰型周期性变化趋势,年内月ET呈单峰变化趋势;④ 春秋两季的ET与降水和气温的相关性明显高于其他季节,ET与气温和降水的平均相关系数是-0.17和0.37,表明降水对于ET的响应程度强于气温;⑤ 驱动分区结果表明海河流域ET受气候因子驱动的主要类型是降水驱动型和降水、气温共同驱动型;⑥ 海河流域耕地ET变化气候因子驱动模式主要是降水、气温共同驱动型;林地、草地的驱动模式主要气温驱动型和降水驱动型,其他土地利用类型的驱动模式主要是受其他因素驱动。该研究将对海河流域水资源开发管理和区域气候调节起到科学指导作用。     

Estimation of regional evapotranspiration in alpine area and its response to land use change: A case study in Three-River Headwaters region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Three-River Headwaters(TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River,the Huanghe(Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China.Taking the TRH region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case,the annual evapotranspiration(ET) model developed by Zhang et al.(2001) was applied to evaluate mean annual ET in the alpine area,and the response of annual ET to land use change was analyzed.The plant-available water coefficient(w) of Zhang’s model was revised by using vegetation-temperature condition index(VTCI) before annual ET was calculated in alpine area.The future land use scenario,an input of ET model,was spatially simulated by using the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent(CLUE-S) to study the response of ET to land use change.Results show that the relative errors between the simulated ET and that calculated by using water balance equation were 3.81% and the index of agreement was 0.69.This indicates that Zhang’s ET model based on revised plant-available water coefficient is a scientific and practical tool to estimate the annual ET in the alpine area.The annual ET in 2000 in the study area was 221.2 mm,11.6 mm more than that in 1980.Average annual ET decreased from southeast to northwest,but the change of annual ET between 1980 and 2000 increased from southeast to northwest.As a vast and sparsely populated area,the population in the TRH region was extremely unbalanced and land use change was concentrated in very small regions.Thus,land use change had little effect on total annual ET in the study area but a great impact on its spatial distribution,and the effect of land use change on ET decreased with increasing precipitation.ET was most sensitive to the interconversion between forest and unused land,and was least sensitive to the interconversion between cropland and low-covered grassland.     

用多变量灰色预测模型模拟预测参考作物蒸散量的研究

当观测资料的数据量少而又存在多个相互影响或关联的变量时,常用的灰色预测模型GM（1,1）不能全面考虑多个变量。为此,采用自适应MGM（1,n）模型—多变量灰色预测模型,较好地解决了这一问题。针对一些地区气象数据较少甚至缺失的情况,以内蒙古正蓝旗的气象资料用Penman-Monteith计算的参考作物蒸散量（ET0）为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论建立MGM（1,3）模型,模拟预测参考作物蒸散量变化规律,并与GM（1,1）模型和BP神经网络模型比较,结果表明MGM（1,3）模型有较好的预测效果。     

Evaluation of NLDAS‐2 evapotranspiration against tower flux site observations

The North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) has run four land surface models for a 30‐year (1979–2008) retrospective period. Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important model outputs from NLDAS‐2 for investigating land–atmosphere interaction or to monitor agricultural drought. Here, we evaluate hourly ET using in situ observations over the Southern Great Plains (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud and Radiation Testbed network) for 1 January 1997–30 September 1999 and daily ET u‐sing in situ observations at the AmeriFlux network over the conterminous USA for an 8‐year period (2000–2007). The NLDAS‐2 models compare well against observations, with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Noah land surface model performing best, followed, in order, by the Variable Infiltration Capacity, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, and Mosaic models. Daily evaluation across the AmeriFlux network shows that for all models, performance depends on season and vegetation type; they do better in spring and fall than in winter or summer and better for deciduous broadleaf forest and grasslands than for croplands or evergreen needleleaf forest. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于不同景观的LAI-ET时空协同效应研究——以蒙古高原和青藏高原为例（英文）

近几十年来,蒙古高原和青藏高原的增温速度高于全球变暖的平均水平,导致生态系统的结构和功能发生了显著变化。叶面积指数(LAI)和蒸散发(ET)在塑造陆地表面过程和气候方面发挥着重要作用。在文中,我们重点关注LAI和ET的时空变化及其相互关系。基于2000-2014年的MODIS产品,我们发现蒙古高原的LAI和ET之间存在普遍的正相关关系,而青藏高原则没有协同作用。总体而言,青藏高原LAI的显著增加(减少)区域占总面积的49.38%(50.62%),蒙古高原则为94.92%(5.09%);青藏高原ET增加区域面积占总面积的21.70%(124.10×10~3 km^2),蒙古高原为88.01%(341.60×10~3 km^2)。更重要的是,随着时间的推移,这种关系在整个空间中发生了很大的变化,并且在景观的某些部分发现了不匹配。需要通过观测和/或实验研究来探讨这些关系,包括植被特征及其干扰的影响。     

A method to evaluate the degree of bleaching of IRSL signals in feldspar: The 3ET method

In addition to dating, IRSL luminescence signals can preserve information about erosional, transport, and depositional histories of a population of grains. Knowledge of the degree of bleaching can be useful in understanding the processes that occurred during previous depositional events, as certain transport conditions result in a well bleached signal, while others result in grains retaining an inherited signal from prior events. This information can be accessed by making single-grain IRSL measurements across successively increasing temperatures, thereby isolating signals from traps of different bleachabilities.A new approach offers a way to evaluate the completeness of bleaching of a grain by testing patterns of equivalent dose (D_E) values measured at three elevated temperatures (3ET), 50, 125, and 225 °C. Consistent D_E estimates across two or more temperatures suggest a single bleaching event of sufficient duration to fully depopulate the traps involved. Incompletely bleached grains with inconsistent D_E values across temperatures will lack a 3ET “plateau.” Modes in the distribution of D_E values for fully bleached grains can suggest depositional ages, subject to assessment of fading. We developed a Python code in a Jupyter Notebook environment for data analysis and visualization to expedite processing the large data sets produced by the 3ET protocol.The 3ET protocol was tested on a radiocarbon dated sequence of playa samples from California, USA and on a set of fluvial terraces in the Marlborough region of New Zealand as part of a larger project to reconstruct regional seismic history. Where standard pIRIR apparent ages can be inconsistent or ambiguous, 3ET age estimates produce generally consistent apparent ages. Modes of 3ET plateaus can be used to infer the most recent and prior events that resulted in a sub-population of grains being fully bleached. These initial results suggest that the 3ET method can be useful to characterize both the age and degree of bleaching of depositional events.     

基于ET技术的水权分配

通过研究减少蒸腾蒸发（ET）,来达到“真实”节水,以馆陶县为例,通过计算馆陶县ET值,利用ET技术进行水权分配。为以后馆陶县水资源开发利用和保护提供理论数据,对水资源的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。     

基于遥感的GEF海河项目实施效果评价

GEF海河项目于2011年完工,该项目在华北地区16个县市实施,惠及2 000多万人。本文从ET、地下水超采量削减、污染物排放量控制、地表水水资源量与利用量以及出入境水质水量5个方面对GEF海河项目实施效果进行了评价。结果表明,全流域ET值减少了68.4 mm,COD和NH3-N入河总量分别减少了36.8%和8.5%、入海总量分别减少了46.1%和36.4%,地表水资源量增加了8.94%,总用水量减少了1.99×108m3,生态环境用水量增加了7.77×108m3,河湖环境明显改善。     

Estimation of hourly and daily evapotranspiration and soil moisture using downscaled LST over various urban surfaces

Surface moisture is important to link land surface temperature (LST) to people’s thermal comfort. In urban areas, the surface roughness from buildings and urban trees impacts wind speed, and consequently surface moisture. To find the role of surface roughness in surface moisture estimation, we developed methods to estimate daily and hourly evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture, based on a case study of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. In order to capture the spatial and temporal variations of LST, hourly and daily LST was produced by downscaling techniques. Given the heterogeneity in urban areas, fractions of vegetation, soil, and impervious surfaces were calculated. To describe the urban morphology, surface roughness parameters were calculated from digital elevation model (DEM), digital surface model (DSM), and Terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). Two source energy balance (TSEB) model was employed to generate ET, and the temperature vegetation index (TVX) method was used to calculate soil moisture. Stable hourly soil moisture fluctuated from 15% to 20%, and daily soil moisture increased due to precipitation and decreased due to seasonal temperature change. ET over soil, vegetation, and impervious surface in the urban areas yielded different patterns in response to precipitation. The surface roughness from high-rise has bigger influence on ET in central urban areas.