Water quality in rural areas of the Czech Republic: Key study Slapanka River catchment

The article evaluates the water quality in rural areas in the Czech part of Labe River catchment using the example of Slapanka River catchment. This river drains a typical landscape of Ceskomoravska Highland. Water quality in rural areas is still very low and the attention is paid to organic substances and nutrients. Increased amount of them in streams is caused mainly by agriculture and production of municipal wastewater resulting in increased eutrophication. A significant part of the article consists in the evaluation of point and non-point sources of water pollution. Identifying the type of the pollution source is helped by regression analysis using data from the public monitoring network. Eleven sampling sites were selected for evaluating the water quality. Physical and chemical analyses were made 12 times during the field monitoring in the years 2001–2003.In long-term development water quality has improved in all monitored parameters during the last 15 years. Least significant improvement has been found with the concentration of nitrate nitrogen. The water quality within the whole catchment area still remains low.To reduce the influence of pollution sources, we recommend the sanitation of diffuse sources of pollution from small settlements with less than 2000 inhabitants, and a successive change from agricultural management and intensive mass production to extensive ways, especially in mountain and sub-mountain areas.     

简论资源、环境与经济间可持续发展关系

资源学、环境学与经济学是相对独立的学科，但它们之间又具有密切的内部联系。资源（自然资源）、经济和环境是现代社会发展中的三个重要方面。本文试图用综合发展的观点，分析资源、环境、经济三者之间的相互矛盾、相互依赖、相互影响、相互作用的规律，论述处理好资源、环境与经济相互协调、发展的关系。这也是社会经济可持续发展的时代要求。     

The Oil Reserves-to-Production Ratio and Its Proper Interpretation

This paper describes several factors which control the magnitude of Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratio, the necessity of preliminary analysis of them and the proper interpretation of this ratio, as it applies to different conditions and countries. It also describes the importance to characterize the ability of reserves to provide the increased oil production (or keeping its level stable) and consider it a main criterion of its quality and sufficiency. The deterioration in the quality of reserves because a definite point of the exploratory degree of the petroliferous basins and during the oil-field production period is a permanent factor, which has to be taken into account. All else aside it leads to the formal increase of the R/P ratio without an ability for production growth. The careful analysis of probable and possible reserves can help determine successful ways for replenishment of the proved reserves and increased oil production.     

上海及邻区尾波Q值研究

选取2011年1月~2012年12月上海台网数据库中记录的37次ML≥2.0地震的数字地震波资料,利用单次散射的Aki模型,计算上海及邻区尾波Q值,拟合Q值对频率的依赖关系,结果为Q(f)=(176.2±87.26)·f0.898 4±0.290 8。与国内其他区域相比,本区域Q值偏大,对频率依赖性低。结合上海及邻区地质特征及同期小震空间分布特点,将研究区域划分为以下4个小震密集区:苏中沿海区域、南黄海区域、苏州—东海区域、宁波—舟山区域,分区进行Q值统计分析,表明尾波Q值数据能够较好地反映该区域地震活动性。     

利用Aki模型对宁夏及邻区尾波Q值的研究

利用单次散射的Aki模型,选取2008年1月-2009年12月宁夏地震台网记录的82次ML≥2.0地震的数字地震波资料,计算宁夏及邻区尾波Q值,拟合Q值对频率的依赖关系.全区域数据结果为Q(f)=(212±87.62)·f0.7584±0.19.与国内其它区域相比,本区域Q值较低、对频率依赖性较高.结合区域地震地质构造...     

Exploring space-time models for West Nile virus mosquito abundance data

This paper explores variant space-time models for log-transformed West Nile virus (WNv) mosquito data, which explicitly account for both local environmental conditions and complex dependent structures. Four space-time models take various forms to accommodate correlated structure in space and time, nested data, and nonstationarity. The average WNv mosquito abundance is captured by a global trend across all four models, but different model assumptions are imposed on the stochastic component of the proposed models: a simple multivariate linear regression model with independent and identical errors, a site-specific linear mixed model with temporally correlated errors, a week-specific linear mixed model with spatially correlated errors, and a local space-time kriging model. In a case study, the predictive performance of the four models was assessed using data collected in 2007 and 2008 for the Greater Toronto Area by the mosquito surveillance program of Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-term Care: the local space-time kriging model outperforms others, but closely followed by a site-specific linear mixed model with temporal correlation. Our findings suggest that the predictive accuracy of space-time WNv mosquito abundance models can be enhanced by explicitly taking into account spatiotemporal correlation, nonstationarity, and the data collection procedure, such as surveillance design, based on sound understanding of mosquito behavior and population dynamics.     

Assessment of uncertainty in environmental contours due to parametric uncertainty in models of the dependence structure between metocean variables

A key factor for computing environmental contours is the appropriate modeling of the dependence structure among the environmental variables. It is known that all the information on the dependence structure of a set of random variables is contained in the copulas that define their multivariate probability distribution. Provided that copula parameters are estimated by means of statistical inference using observations, recordings, numerical or historical data, uncertainty is unavoidably introduced in their estimates. Parametric uncertainty in the copulas parameters then introduces uncertainty in the environmental contours. This study deals with the assessment of uncertainty in environmental contours due to parametric uncertainty in the copula models that define the dependence structure of the environmental variables. A point estimation approach is adopted to estimate the statistics of the uncertain coordinates of the environmental contours considering they are given in terms of inverse functions of conditional copulas. A case study is reported using copulas models estimated from storm hindcast data for the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty in environmental contours of significant wave height, peak period and wind speed is assessed. The accuracy of the point estimation of the mean and variance of the contour coordinates is validated based on Monte Carlo simulations. A parametric study shows the manner in which greater parametric uncertainty induces larger variability in the environmental contours. The influence of parametric uncertainty for different degrees of association is also analyzed. The results indicate that variability between contours considering parametric uncertainty can be meaningful.     

赤潮预报的人工神经网络方法

基于渤海湾赤潮观测数据(2003年5月~9月),对藻类浓度与环境因子进行了相关性分析,选择出影响藻类浓度的主要环境因子,然后对主要环境因子作主成分分析,在主成分分析的基础上,建立了一个用于赤潮预报的人工神经网络模型。     

基于随机森林-特征递归消除模型的可解释性缓丘岭谷地貌滑坡易发性评价

研究旨在基于随机森林-特征递归消除模型,通过SHAP算法(SHapley Additive exPlanation, SHAP)与部分依赖图(Partial Dependence Plot, PDP)对缓丘岭谷地貌区域进行滑坡易发性评价与内部机制解释,以期为地质灾害防治研究提供参考。利用优化随机森林算法对典型缓丘岭谷地区滑坡易发性进行研究,建立缓丘岭谷滑坡易发性评价模型;利用特征递归消除算法剔除噪声因子,选取地形地貌、地质构造、环境条件、人类活动5个类型16个因子构建重庆合川区滑坡致灾因子数据库;结合合川区754个历史滑坡点,利用随机森林算法对因子重要性进行排序,并根据专家经验法对研究区的滑坡易发性进行划分,将研究区的滑坡易发性分为极低、低、中、高、极高5个等级;应用部分依赖图对合川区滑坡发生影响大的因子进行解释和SHAP算法对个体滑坡进行局部解释。结果表明：与原模型相比,随机森林-特征递归消除模型测试集AUC值提高了0.019,证明了特征递归消除算法的有效性;训练集以及测试集的AUC值分别为0.769、0.755,具有较高的预测精度;缓丘缓坡地区在起伏较大地区滑坡密度较大,历史滑坡多集中于高易发地区;滑坡的空间分布具有不均匀性与复杂性,各致灾因子对滑坡发生的影响有着明显的区域特征与空间异质性,在缓坡丘陵地区多年平均降雨、高程、岩性3个因子对滑坡发生的影响最大;由SHAP算法对合川白塔坪上山公路滑坡事件进行解释,岩性与高程对滑坡起抑制作用,起伏度、坡度、归一化植被指数(NDVI)与POI核密度促进滑坡发生。综上所述,基于随机森林-特征递归消除模型在缓丘岭谷区滑坡易发性评价中具有较高的准确性,通过部分依赖图与SHAP算法对全局滑坡与个体滑坡发生的内在机理进行解释分析,有利于构建与完善不同地貌环境下滑坡易发性评价因子体系并探究滑坡内部决策机理,可为区域滑坡易发性评估与地质灾害防治提供参考。     

The Influence of the Prandtl Number on the Style of Vigorous Thermal Convection

The effect of the Prandtl number on convection in a planar three-dimensional geometry is investigated in this study. We have employed a numerical scheme to integrate the governing equations. Differently from previous studies we have chosen stress-free boundaries. Experiments have been performed at a Rayleigh number of Ra = 10 6 for Prandtl numbers (Pr) ranging from 0.025 to 100. We have further conducted one experiment in the limiting case of infinite Prandtl number. Despite the differences in the geometry and the boundary conditions, as compared to other studies, we find a similar transition in the dynamics of the flow when the Prandtl number is increased. While the velocity and the temperature structure show diffusive character at low Pr, sharp thermal boundary layers form at high Pr. The heat transport efficiency increases with Pr until a transition value is reached, from there on Nu behaves almost asymptotically. The transition can not be caused by a change in hierarchies between velocity and thermal boundary layers, as suggested in other studies. Due to the stress-free boundaries, a velocity boundary layer does not exist. We observe that the toroidal part of the flow is strong at low Pr and looses its strength with increasing Pr, thus it is likely to be responsible for the transition. In a further chapter we demonstrate that due to the neglect of the toroidal part in two-dimensional calculations at low Pr results are obtained which are misleading, even in a qualitative sense. Infinite Pr results from 2D calculations closely resemble the dynamics of fully 3D flows.