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《Atmósfera》2014,27(4):429-449
This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts. 相似文献
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X 波段双极化雷达对云中水凝物粒子的相态识别 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6
人工影响天气研究需对云中降水粒子的相态和分布结构进行准确识别,以便提高人工影响天气作业效率.中国科学院大气物理研究所的车载X波段双极化雷达可提供与云中降水粒子大小、形状、相态等特征密切相关的4个极化参数:反射率因子、差分反射率、差分相移率、水平和垂直极化相关系数.利用这4个极化参数加上环境温度作为5个输入参量,建立了降水粒子相态模糊逻辑识别算法,识别的降水粒子有10种:毛毛雨、雨、湿霰、干霰、小雹、大雹、雨加雹、湿雪、干雪、冰晶.利用此雷达的实际观测资料,并与地面和飞机空中实测资料对照,对我国南、北方地区观测的降水天气过程进行分析,结果表明:建立的模糊逻辑算法对云内水凝物粒子的相态识别分类合理. 相似文献
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The role of compatibility conditions for altimetry–gravimetry boundary value problems (AGBVPs) is quite complicated by way of: guaranteeing the existence of the solution; smoothing the data (boundary conditions) at the boundary; and providing a higher level of regularization and smoothness to the solution. Pseudo-differential operators (PDOs) can be applied not only for the reformulation of AGBVPs in a simple way, but also for imposing compatibility conditions at the coastline. It is shown here that spherical PDOs can be combined with the theory of spherical harmonics and spherical wavelets to obtain a numerical solution for AGBVPs with compatibility conditions along the coastline. The role of compatibility conditions, is summarized and emphasized and compatibility conditions are given in an explicit form based on the combined representation of functionals of the disturbing potential in terms of spherical harmonics, spherical PDOs and wavelets. Numerical aspects of the application of the compatibility conditions to a case-study area in Canada are discussed. 相似文献
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M. Taleai A. Sharifi R. Sliuzas M. Mesgari 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2007,9(4):375-391
This research is aimed at developing a model for assessing land use compatibility in densely built-up urban areas. In this process, a new model was developed through the combination of a suite of existing methods and tools: geographical information system, Delphi methods and spatial decision support tools: namely multi-criteria evaluation analysis, analytical hierarchy process and ordered weighted average method. The developed model has the potential to calculate land use compatibility in both horizontal and vertical directions. Furthermore, the compatibility between the use of each floor in a building and its neighboring land uses can be evaluated. The method was tested in a built-up urban area located in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. The results show that the model is robust in clarifying different levels of physical compatibility between neighboring land uses. This paper describes the various steps and processes of developing the proposed land use compatibility evaluation model (CEM). 相似文献
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A critical issue in marine ecosystem-based management is addressing the compatibility of extractive use with ecosystem protection. Analysis of the protected area planning process for the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands suggests the key elements of an ecosystem-based approach to protected area management include establishing a common understanding among decision makers of ecosystem boundaries and ecosystem condition, informed by the best available science. A participatory process is proposed that relies on an informed assessment of whether extractive use compromises ecological integrity and is consistent with conservation objectives. Best practices for compatibility determinations are proposed for multi-agency protected area management and planning. 相似文献
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