Fishing and Farming at Lake Chad: Responses to Lake-level Fluctuations

Lake Chad lies at the southern extreme of the Sahara Desert and is well known for large fluctuations in its surface area this century. Seasonal fluctuations, however, have received much less attention. This paper presents the results of two complimentary research efforts on the south-west shore of the lake. These illustrate how important both inter and intra-annual fluctuations in the level of the lake are, both in terms of their impact on the environment and in the response of the communities living on the lake shore. The paper compares a time series of the fluctuations in the level of Lake Chad as monitored by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite with findings from participatory research with the communities of the south-west lake shore. It shows how the communities of the lake have responded to lake-level fluctuations with their livelihood choices. These results are used to show that although vastly different in scope, a high degree of complimentarity exists between remotely-sensed information and community-based research and that they are of potentially great value to development initiatives on the shores of Lake Chad.     

Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the water-resources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique of decision-tree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article, the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented.     

Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr

On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future.     

Alaska Tsunami Warning Center's automatic and interactive computer processing system

The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center has the responsibility of providing timely tsunami warning services for Alaska and the west coasts of Canada and the United States. Recently, the ATWC implemented a new microcomputer system which is used for both automatic and interactive earthquake processing, and for disseminating critical information to the Tsunami Warning System recipients.Real-time seismic wave form data from 23 short-period and 9 long-period sites in Alaska, the lower 48 States, and Hawaii, are continually computer-monitored for the occurrence of an earthquake. Once detected from the short-period wave form data, pre- and post-earthquake data are displayed on a graphics terminal along with an indicator to identify the time of the onset of theP waves (P-picks). TheP-picks can easily be changed during or after data collection via a mouse. Magnitudes (M _b ,M _l ,M _B ,M _S ) are automatically computed from appropriate short- and long-period wave form data concurrently with the above processing. A second graphics terminal displays cycle-by-cycle long-period wave form data that was used to compute an earthquake'sM _B andM _S magnitudes.An earthquake's parametric data and other information are available and printed within tens of seconds after theP wave arrivals are recorded at the first 5 sites, then 7 sites, 9 sites, and a final parametric computation using all collected data. Three video display monitors are used for displaying the parameters, procedural aids, and a map showing the epicenter. Additionally, selected event parameters are immediately transmitted by VHF radio to alphanumeric beepers which are carried by standby duty personnel during those times that the Center is not manned.Using a dedicated video display terminal and printer, the interactive system can use data and parameters resulting from the automatic processes for concurrent parameter recomputations; perform additional computations; disseminate critical information; and generate procedural aids for duty geophysicists to facilitate an earthquake/tsunami investigation.     

Enhancing the human benefits of flood warnings

This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important. Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future.     

Measuring Tsunami Preparedness in Coastal Washington,United States

A survey of over 300 residents and visitors (non-residents) perceptions of tsunami hazards was carried out along the west coast of Washington State during August and September 2001. The study quantified respondents preparedness to deal with tsunami hazards. Despite success in disseminating hazard information, levels of preparedness were recorded at low to moderate levels. This finding is discussed in regard to the way in which people interpret hazard information and its implications for the process of adjustment adoption or preparedness. These data are also used to define strategies for enhancing preparedness. Strategies involve maintaining and enhancing hazard knowledge and risk perception, promoting the development of preparatory intentions, and facilitating the conversion of these intentions into sustained preparedness. A second phase of work began in February 2003, consisting of a series of focus groups which examined beliefs regarding preparedness and warnings, and a school survey. Preliminary findings of this work are presented.     

Assessment of project THRUST: Past,present, future

Project THRUST (Tsunami Hazards Reduction Utilizing Systems Technology) was a demonstration of satellite technology, used with existing tsunami warning methods, to create a low cost, reliable, local tsunami warning system. The major objectives were successfully realized at the end of the demonstration phase in September 1987. In June 1988, the Chilean Government held a workshop to assess the value of THRUST to national interests. Two recommendations came forth from the workshop: (1) the technology was sufficiently reliable and cost-effective to begin the development of an operational prototype and (2) the prototype would be used as the Chilean Tsunami Warning System. As of August 1989, the equipment was in operational use. In September 1989, major improvements were made in the satellite operations that reduced the response time from 88 to 17 sec and enlarged the broadcast area by 50%. The implications of the recent improvements in satellite technology are discussed for application to reductions in disaster impacts.     

Landmark‐based summarized messages for flood warning

In order to evacuate residents in time, flood warning systems must have rapid data processing algorithms to translate detailed numerical data into simple warnings and navigation aids. Although it is common to display warning messages by directly drawing red circles on a map embedded in a Web page to indicate the regions about to be inundated, such an approach has some drawbacks. We propose an alternative way by summarizing the warning messages based on landmarks, so that the messages can be short and convey even more information. We have designed two approaches to output such messages. They are the nearest landmark approach and the threshold approach, which differ in the way of determining which landmarks will be influenced by a certain flooded region. These two methods are implemented and we compare their performance through real and synthetic datasets. Experimental results show that the threshold approach usually takes less execution time than the nearest landmark approach. Its severity ranking of landmarks is also better suited to human behaviour.     

Factors Affecting Evacuation Behavior: The Case of 2007 Cyclone Sidr,Bangladesh

Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. Despite early cyclone warnings and emergency evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines Sidr victims’ responses to cyclone warnings and evacuation orders, and explores the factors that would explain why the victims did or did not comply with the orders. Based on survey data collected from 277 Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that more than 75 percent of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Sidr's landfall. Despite the efforts of the Bangladesh government, there were lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures. Field data also reveal several reasons cited by respondents for not complying with evacuation orders. Multivariate analyses of survey data show that trust in warning messages was the most important determinant in the decision to seek refuge in safer shelters, followed by distance to nearest shelter and annual level of education. Several recommendations have been made to improve cyclone warnings and the use of public shelters for similar future events.     

Transport and the seasonal variation of ozone

The transport mechanisms responsible for the seasonal behavior of total ozone are deduced from the comparison of model results to stratospheric data. The seasonal transport is dominated by a combination of the diabatic circulation and transient planetary wave activity acting on a diffusively and photochemically determined background state. The seasonal variation is not correctly modeled as a diffusive process. The buildup of total ozone at high latitudes during winter is dependent upon transient planetary wave activity of sufficient strength to cause the breakdown of the polar vortex. While midwinter warmings are responsible for enhanced ozone transport to high latitudes, the final warming marking the transition from zonal mean westerlies to zonal mean easterlies is the most important event leading to the spring maximum. The final warming is not followed by reacceleration of the mean flow; so that the ozone transport associated with this event is more pronounced than that associated with midwinter warmings.