基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Geostatistical features of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivities in Frenchman Creek Watershed in Western Nebraska

This study evaluated the spatial variability of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K_v) in different stream morphologies in the Frenchman Creek Watershed, Western Nebraska, using different variogram models. Streambed K_v values were determined in situ using permeameter tests at 10 sites in Frenchman, Stinking Water and Spring Creeks during the dry season at baseflow conditions. Measurements were taken both in straight and meandering stream channels during a 5 day period at similar flow conditions. Each test site comprised of at least three transects and each transect comprised of at least three K_v measurements. Linear, Gaussian, exponential and spherical variogram models were used with Kriging gridding method for the 10 sites. As a goodness-of-fit statistic for the variogram models, cross-validation results showed differences in the median absolute deviation and the standard deviation of the cross-validation residuals. Results show that using the geometric means of the 10 sites for gridding performs better than using either all the K_v values from the 93 permeameter tests or 10 K_v values from the middle transects and centre permeameters. Incorporating both the spatial variability and the uncertainty involved in the measurement at a reach segment can yield more accurate grid results that can be useful in calibrating K_v at watershed or sub-watershed scales in distributed hydrological models.     

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.     

Geometric Derivation of the Delaunay Variables and Geometric Phases

We derive the classical Delaunay variables by finding a suitable symmetry action of the three torus T³ on the phase space of the Kepler problem, computing its associated momentum map and using the geometry associated with this structure. A central feature in this derivation is the identification of the mean anomaly as the angle variable for a symplectic S ¹ action on the union of the non-degenerate elliptic Kepler orbits. This approach is geometrically more natural than traditional ones such as directly solving Hamilton–Jacobi equations, or employing the Lagrange bracket. As an application of the new derivation, we give a singularity free treatment of the averaged J ₂-dynamics (the effect of the bulge of the Earth) in the Cartesian coordinates by making use of the fact that the averaged J ₂-Hamiltonian is a collective Hamiltonian of the T³ momentum map. We also use this geometric structure to identify the drifts in satellite orbits due to the J ₂ effect as geometric phases.     

GPS变形监测平差计算及不确定度分析

全球定位系统（GPS）是一种全天候、高精度的连续定位系统,它以速度快、方法灵活多样、操作简便等优势被广泛应用于工程测量和变形监测中。结合水厂铁矿GPS边坡变形监测实例,对GPS监测网的星历预报、基线向量平差计算、网平差计算、结果及残差不确定度进行了细致分析研究,以验证GPS技术在边坡变形监测中的可靠性和精度。     

基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

Prediction of local scour around circular piles under waves using a novel artificial intelligence approach

Abstract

The scour phenomena around vertical piles in oceans and under waves may influence the structure stability. Therefore, accurately predicting the scour depth is an important task in the design of piles. Empirical approaches often do not provide the required accuracy compared with data mining methods for modeling such complex processes. The main objective of this study is to develop three data-driven methods, locally weighted linear regression (LWLR), support vector machine (SVR), and multivariate linear regression (MLR) to predict the scour depth around vertical piles due to waves in a sand bed. It is the first effort to develop the LWLR to predict scour depth around vertical piles. The models simulate the scour depth mainly based on Shields parameter, pile Reynolds number, grain Reynolds number, Keulegan–Carpenter number, and sediment number. 111 laboratory datasets, derived from several experimental studies, were used for the modeling. The results indicated that the LWLR provided highly accurate predictions of the scour depths around piles (R?=?0.939 and RMSE = 0.075). Overall, this study demonstrated that the LWLR can be used as a valuable tool to predict the wave-induced scour around piles.     

基于矢量信号处理的水声定位系统

将传统的水声定位系统与矢量水听器相结合，设计了一种全新的轻便型长基线被动水声定位系统。介绍了系统的组成和工作原理，并结合近年来出现的矢量信号处理技术，设计了新的实时信号处理软件。经湖试和海试，系统的可行性得到了初步的验证。     

Outer wave number spectrum and statistical distribution of apparent wave number vector

Based on the ray theory and Longuet-Higgins’s linear model of sea waves, the joint distribution of wave envelope and apparent wave number vector is established. From the joint distribution, we define a new concept, namely the outer wave number spectrum, to describe the outer characteristics of ocean waves. The analytical form of the outer wave number spectrum, the probability distributions of the apparent wave number vector and its components are then derived. The outer wave number spectrum is compared with the inner wave number spectrum for the average status of wind-wave development corresponding to a peakness factor P = 3. Discussions on the similarity and difference between the outer wave number spectrum and inner one are also presented in the paper.