Evaluating the risk of climate change to nuclear waste disposal

A hierarchy of models is being developed to represent the changes in climate that could occur in the next 10,000 years at proposed nuclear waste repository sites in the U.S. Three levels of modeling of the global aspects of climate change are included. At the broadest level a multitude of theoretical representations are being considered, most based upon the Milankovitch theory. A set of at least 150 situations will be examined, and those of concern for site stability will be screened for more thorough analysis at the next level of detail. The screening criteria include estimation of the probability of the event; the level of probability which must be considered (0.0001) requires use of the most detailed paleoclimatic records available. Uncertainty in the results will be evaluated by comparison of model reconstructions to the paleoclimatic record and by Monte Carlo analyses.This paper was presented at Emerging Concept, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

From hard-path to soft-path solutions: slow–fast dynamics of human adaptation to droughts in a water scarce environment

ABSTRACT

Droughts have long impacted humans with adverse consequences, hindering the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. To reduce vulnerability, multiple ways of adaptation have been developed, most of which, historically, focused on “hard-path” implementation of infrastructure. However, since water consumption plays a major role in the supply–demand balance, “soft-path” solutions focusing on the control of water use have recently intensified. Furthermore, due to the dynamic interaction between humans and water, changes might occur over time, requiring adaptation measures to be continually reshaped. We assess the dynamic nature of human adaptation to droughts in the semi-arid Extended Jaguaribe Basin, Brazil. We explore the shift from hard, supply-oriented measures to soft governance, and its causes: natural and socio-economic processes not anticipated in the original water resources policy. The observed phenomenon and discussion of its causes help to build knowledge on human–water interactions that are applicable more generally.