Models in geography revisited

Agent based models (ABMs) have many applications, and illustrate a rapidly developing field of enquiry, spanning both the physical-mathematical and human-social sciences. ABMs are seen as most appropriate in situations where decisions or actions are distributed around particular locations, and in which structure is viewed as emergent from the interaction between individuals. ABMs may be used either as representational devices, to reproduce the patterns observed or desired in the system of interest, or as foundational tools contributing to the development of social or economic theory. The role and status of models and modelling is itself an instantiation of a wider debate concerning representation and explanation. Today, a case can be made that the nature of explanation and the use of scientific interpretation reflect much less definite and exclusive positions and permit more diverse approaches than hitherto. The underlying proposition of this commentary is, therefore, that the time is right for a positive application of ABMs within the discipline of geography, and for a rediscovery and reappraisal of the richness and depth of insight in the model-building enterprise more generally. First, the context for ABM development and application is set with reference to the agency-structure debate. Second, some aspects of the heritage of models in geography is presented, based upon reviews of two benchmark publications bearing that title. Next, some of the most significant characteristics, uses, potentials and limitations of ABMs, are reviewed. Finally, some constructive ways forward are suggested, as informed by theory and method from the interpretative social sciences.     

Withered Geography

This commentary is a response to an article by Jay R. Harman in the November 2003 issue of The Professional Geographer. I argue that Harman's claim that scholarly disciplines offer social “returns” in a competitive “market” obscures the fundamentally political nature of how social resources are allocated and how social needs are defined. Harman would have us subordinate scholarly research to agendas set elsewhere, by politicians and other powerful interests, but I argue that such a vision would turn geographers into mere technicians. A healthier role for the discipline is for geographers to seek ways of asserting intellectual leadership and of shaping social agendas along more humane and socially just lines.     

Metropolitan growth and labor markets in Mexico

The objective of this paper is to examine the main changes in the metropolitan labor markets associated with economic restructuring in Mexico during the late 1980s and beginning of the 1990s. The analysis refers particularly to the four largest metropoles of the country, Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey and Puebla, looking for common characteristics in their emergent employment structures now strongly differentiated in terms of rewards, stability in employment relations and conditions of access to jobs. The analysis reveals that largest metropolitan areas have been the most profoundly affected by the economic restructuring resulting from globalization, through a rapid de-industrialization and the expansion of the tertiary sector. Metropolitan labor markets in Mexico, at the time that show signs of social polarization in the formal sector, put in evidence a general process of precarization – less labor stability, replacement of permanent by part-time jobs, and increasing subcontracting –, segmentation of the labor force, and an increasing informal conditions of economic activities with small businesses and unskilled, temporarly and poorly paid jobs. The labor force segmentation and its more precarious and casual conditions are mostly explained by the impact of recent neoliberal policies, and recurrent economic crisis during the 1980s and 1990s which highly contributes to social inequality.     

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio…     

甘南高原乡村社会固有脆弱性及其影响因素

开展社会固有脆弱性研究不仅有助于了解区域社会系统的可持续发展状态,更有助于寻求提高社会系统适应能力的恰当策略。通过构建乡村社会固有脆弱性分析框架和评价指标体系,并以甘南高原为研究区,在分析乡村社会固有脆弱性特征的基础上识别了其关键影响因子。结果表明:①甘南高原乡村社会固有脆弱性呈"梭型"分异,其中,高、中、低脆弱性乡镇分别占18.95%、47.37%、33.68%。②社会固有脆弱性存在明显的区域差异性,从农区-半农半牧区-牧区、高山峡谷区-山地丘陵区-山原区,社会固有脆弱性趋于增加;同时,随着少数民族聚居度降低、经济发展水平升高,社会固有脆弱性趋于降低。③社会固有脆弱性在空间上呈"北高南低"的不均衡分布,敏感性呈"中间高四周低"的集聚分布,适应能力呈相对均衡的"碎片化"分布。④气温、生育结构、民族结构、住房安全性、社会弱势群体比重、经济条件、信息可得性和参保比例是影响社会固有脆弱性的关键因子。最后,提出相应的对策建议。     

生态系统服务社会价值与生态价值的权衡与协同关系——以普达措国家公园为例

以香格里拉普达措国家公园为研究区,借助SolVES模型和InVEST模型,分别度量其社会价值（美学价值、文化价值、游憩价值）和生态价值（生境质量、碳储量、水源供给）的空间特征,并运用双变量空间自相关分析对二者空间权衡与协同关系进行研究。研究表明：① 社会价值的高值区呈“多核心,多条状”的空间格局,社会价值指数高达8.6（该指数介于1~10）,且距水体的距离越近对社会价值的贡献越大（贡献度为45.9%）;② 生态价值良好及优的空间范围占园区面积的1/2（49.91%）,主要位于原始森林保存良好的碧塔海片区和尼汝东北部扎诺一带;③ 社会价值与生态价值之间存在显著的空间依赖性,其中社会价值低,生态价值高的区域是园区最主要的空间聚集特征。该研究可为生态系统服务的可持续管理决策提供科学依据,以及有助于完善基于生态系统服务的社会?生态系统分析理论框架。     

河南省耕地保护态势与社会责任问题探讨

运用综合分析法、历史分析法、比较分析法等,探讨了耕地保护的责任机制问题.认为政府在耕地保护中应承担主导责任,农民应承担参与责任、企业应承担节地责任.提出了构建新的耕地保护评价指标体系,改进现有管理办法;建立耕地保护的激励机制,提高耕地保护意识和主动性;积极推进全民参与的力度;重视中低产田改造和耕地生态环境防治问题等落实耕地保护共同责任机制的措施和建议.耕地保护需要构建"大家管、大家用、大家负责"的全社会的共同责任机制.     

博物馆社会服务职能的现状与思考—以烟台自然博物馆建设为例

现当代博物馆是新形势下博物馆的发展趋势,它改变了传统博物馆被动保守的运作模式,实现由"以藏品为中心"向"以公众为中心"的理念转变,既能使公众领略自然科学的魅力和获取美的享受与感悟,还能突出地域特色和时代理念,实现贴近实际、贴近生活、贴近群众的时代使命。通过对烟台自然博物馆社会服务职能的分析定位,对如何在新时期更好开展博物馆社会服务职能工作有一定交流借鉴价值。     

社会产品分配核算的再认识--兼谈帐户法核算国民最终收入

随着我国国民核算体系向SNA体系的转变，使国民核算的生产范围扩大了，社会产品的内容更丰富了，社会产品分配的界限不同了，社会产品分配的结果也变化了。通过对社会产品内容的确定，分析了社会产品在各部门的分配情况，提出了如何用帐户法核算各部门的分配结果——各部门的最终收入。