气候系统内极区热汇与热带海洋热源之间的相互作用(英)

The anomalous change of two polar sea ice and tropical ocean SST is a very important index for global climate monitoring and prediction. In this paper, the wave resonance principle is used to calculate month by month running cross couple correlation coefficient time series between sea ice in different sea area of two Polars, as well as between them and five elements of E1 Nino events, to analyze their variation features, and to find out their resonance periods. The resonance period of two waves is just the strongest interaction period.Some results are concluded as follows. 1) The Arctic sea ice to the Pacific-side (NPI1) and Atlantic-side (NP12) show a strong positive-negative feedback impact each other to the Antarctic Ross Sea ice (SPI2) with equal intensity. 2) Both NPI1 and NPI2 give a strong positive and negative feedback to the Antarctic Wedded Sea ice (SPI3) while it is rather weak in convercse status. It means that, the Arctic sea ice plays a leading and controlling role on the Wedded Sea ice. 3) SST of Nino 4 area in thecentral equatorial Pacific has a best resonance period with SPI2 with cycle period of 132 months. It closely relates to quasi-11 years oscillation period of both SST of Nino 4 area and SPI2. SST of Nino 4 has also a resonance period to SPI3 with cycle of 61 months. There also exist strong interaction periods between the Antarctic sea ice and other elements of ENSO event but weaker than SST of Nino 4 area.     

京、津、冀地区的碳排放趋势估计

通过多种方法相结合,估计了京、津、冀地区2009-2050年的能源碳排放量、水泥工艺碳排放量和森林碳汇量,计算了区域总的碳排放量和净碳排放量。结果表明:1)京、津、冀地区碳排放量都呈现先升后降的Kuznets趋势,森林年碳汇量对碳排放降低影响不明显;2)在自由排放条件下,北京、天津均在2030年前达到碳排放高峰期,河北省及整个京津冀地区的碳排放高峰将延迟到2039年;3)在2050年前,北京、天津年碳汇量将有所降低,河北年碳汇量则上升。     

不同陆地生态系统碳通量对GEOS-Chem模型模拟全球CO2浓度的影响

大气中CO₂含量的增加速率已经超过了自然界所能吸收的速度,并逐步影响到全球气候变暖。利用模型模拟分析已经成为一个重要的工具用以深入对碳循环的理解。本文使用2008～2010年的生物模型SiB3（Simple Biosphere version 3）与优化后的CT2016（Carbon Tracker 2016）陆地生态系统碳通量驱动GEOS-Chem大气化学传输模型模拟全球CO₂浓度。通过分析模拟CO₂浓度的空间分布与季节变化,加深对全球碳源汇分布特点的理解,探究陆地生态系统碳通量不确定性对模拟结果的影响,进而认识陆地生态系统碳通量反演精度提升的重要性。SiB3与优化后的CT2016陆地生态系统碳通量都具有明显的季节变化,但在欧洲地区碳源汇的表现相反,其全球总量与空间分布也存在极大的不确定性。模拟CO₂浓度结果表明:在人为活动较少地区,陆地生态系统碳通量对近地面CO₂浓度空间分布起主导作用,尤其在南半球和欧洲地区模拟浓度有明显差异,且两种模拟结果的季节差异依赖于陆地生态系统碳通量的季节变化。将模拟结果与9个观测站点资料进行对比,以期选用合适的陆地生态系统碳通量来提升GEOS-Chem模拟CO₂浓度的精度。实验结果表明:两种模拟结果均能较好的模拟CO₂浓度的季节变化及其峰谷值,但CT2016模拟的CO₂浓度在多数站点处更接近观测资料,模拟准确性更高。     

Estimating Co2 Source/Sink Distributions Within A Rice Canopy Using Higher-Order Closure Model

Source/sink strengths and vertical fluxdistributions of carbon dioxide within and above arice canopy were modelled using measured meanconcentration profiles collected during aninternational rice experiment in Okayama, Japan (IREX96). The model utilizes an Eulerian higher-orderclosure approach that permits coupling of scalar andmomentum transport within vegetation to infer sourcesand sinks from mean scalar concentration profiles; theso-called `inverse problem'. To compute the requiredvelocity statistics, a Eulerian second-order closuremodel was considered. The model well reproducedmeasured first and second moment velocity statisticsinside the canopy. Using these modelled velocitystatistics, scalar fluxes within and above the canopywere computed and compared with CO<sub>2</sub>eddy-correlation measurements above the canopy. Goodagreement was obtained between model calculations offluxes at the top of the canopy and measurements. Close to the ground, the model predicted higherrespiratory fluxes when the paddy was drained comparedto when it was flooded. This is consistent with thefloodwater providing a barrier to diffusion ofCO<sub>2</sub> from the soil to the atmosphere. TheEulerian sources and flux calculations were alsocompared to source and flux distributions estimatedindependently using a Lagrangian Localized Near Fieldtheory, the first study to make such a comparison.Some differences in source distributions werepredicted by these analyses. Despite this, thecalculated fluxes by the two approaches compared wellprovided a closure constant, accounting for theinfluence of `near-field' sources in the Eulerian fluxtransport term, was given a value of 1.5 instead ofthe value of 8 found in laboratory studies.     

稳定同位素和微量元素在多源多汇体系中地球化学行为的理论模拟

根据地质体系多源多汇的特点,引进了一种新的定量地球化学理论模型,适用于模拟稳定同位素和微量元素在具有多个物质来源和多种分馏途径的地质体系中的变化规律。运用本文多源多汇模型研究岩浆同化-分异结晶过程中微量元素和稳定同位素的行为,所得的结果与前人AFC模型结果一致。运用此多源多汇模型对岩浆水与大气水混合过程中结晶出的石英进行模拟计算,发现其氧同位素组成随着结晶温度的降低而变大。大气中甲烷的产生和消耗有多种途径,是一种多源多汇体系,运用此模型研究它的碳同位素组成,发现其值随着甲烷总量的增多而变大。多源多汇模型不仅从更高的层次上包含了简单分馏模式、多元混合模式和AFC模式,而且可以研究这些模式不能解决的复杂地球化学过程。     

1998年南海季风爆发时期中尺度对流系统 的研究：Ⅱ中尺度对流系统对大尺度场的作用

通过对1998年南海季风爆发过程中大尺度风场、温度场、厚度场、地面气压场以及视热源与视水汽汇的演变分析研究了对流活动对大尺度场的作用,结果表明:大尺度环流与中尺度对流活动之间可能存在着一种正反馈机制。在季风爆发早期,大尺度背景与中尺度对流活动的关系主要表现为前者为季风爆发以及中尺度对流活动的发生提供有利的天气和动力条件;季风爆发后期持续的大范围中尺度对流活动反过来会对大尺度环流存在明显的反馈作用。由对流活动强烈发展产生的凝结潜热释放在南海北部造成了显著的大气加热,使对流层中上层出现一明显的加热中心,这导致:(1)南海上空经向温度梯度由高层向低层发生反向,形成北高南低的温度梯度,从而使大尺度环流发生季节性改变;(2)相应南海北部地面气压不断加深,形成宽广的季风槽和明显的减压区,促使副热带高压从南海地区最后撤离;(3)随着中低层低压环流的不断发展,对流系统和降水区进一步加强并向南扩展,有利于南海季风在南海中、南部地区爆发和维持;(4)季风槽的加深使其南侧的季风气流与水汽输送进一步加强,促使季风爆发过程达到盛期。     

基于城市功能分区的碳收支平衡时空分异研究

研究城市主导功能影响下区域碳平衡时空分异,有助于理解城市功能格局与碳循环过程之间的作用机制。本研究以厦门市6个区为例,采用各区历史统计数据以及卫星影像处理的土地利用数据,通过构建简化的区域碳收支计算模型,核算各行政区不同历史时期的碳平衡,结果表明：厦门市整体上呈现碳收支失衡逐渐加剧的趋势,2003年CO₂排放量是吸收量的1.91倍,2013年增长至7.44倍;各区碳代谢以及碳平衡表现出不同的时空分异特征。结合厦门市城市建设总体规划中制订的主导功能分类,阐明主导功能影响下时空分异的社会经济、自然景观等驱动因素对城市碳平衡时空变化的影响机制与过程。在此基础上针对各区不同的碳平衡状况,制订适应各自主导功能的减排以及碳补偿政策。研究有助于直接服务城市的规划和建设实践,从城市生态服务角度指导建设规划,合理城市功能分区。     

长江流域典型区域土壤碳库变化及其影响因素

土壤碳库是全球碳库的重要组成部分,其微小幅度的碳源汇变化就可以较显著的影响大气碳库。本文选择长江流域多目标区域地球化学调查覆盖区,利用多目标区域地球化学调查数据和第二次全国土壤普查数据计算了土壤碳密度及储量,对比了20年来土壤碳库变化趋势,并分析土壤碳源汇的影响因素。结果表明：从20世纪80年代到2000年,研究区大部分区域土壤有机碳密度明显增加,尤其成都平原西部的龙门山地区、雅安南侧地区和贵阳周边地区,其增加量约为312.38 TgC。导致研究区土壤碳库增加的主要因素是,林地草地等植被恢复性生长、农业耕作水平提高,土地利用变化对研究区土壤碳库变化的影响较小,土壤侵蚀因素对研究区的水田基本没有影响,但对旱地影响比较明显,而气候变化对该区域土壤碳库没有明显影响。     

INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE SINKS OVER GUANGDONG

The interannual and interdecadal variations of moisture sinks over Guangdong are discussed with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observed precipitation data from 1958 to 2004. The results indicate that climatically, the amount of precipitation is larger than that of evaporation in spring and summer.Precipitation and evaporation almost balance each other in autumn and the amount of evaporation is larger than that of precipitation in winter. The interannual signal dominates the variations of moisture sinks in all seasons in Guangdong with a period of three-year oscillation in autumn and winter. Remarkable interdecadal signal characterized by a period of three-decade oscillation can be identified for winter and spring from seasonally averaged moisture sink data and from annually moisture data, with variance percentage larger than 40%. This result indicates that Guangdong is at a transitional stage from positive anomalies to negative anomalies. The moisture sink anomalies in winter and following spring over Guangdong are usually in-phase. Besides, there exist periodic oscillations with periods of 10 to 15 years in summer and autumn. The positive (negative) anomalies of moisture sinks over Guangdong are due to the intensified (weakened) moisture from the tropical areas being transported to the Southern China, accompanied by an intensified (weakened) moisture convergence.     

中国边缘海氮循环过程和源汇格局——以南海为例

边缘海氮循环过程研究是全球海洋氮循环研究的重要组成部分,对全球氮源汇格局有显著影响,进而对全球气候变化产生反馈.人为活动和气候变化又是影响边缘海关键氮循环过程速率的重要因素.南海作为中国和西北太平洋最大的边缘海,是边缘海氮循环研究的理想场所.本文详细总结了南海近岸和海盆区的氮源汇过程及其内循环过程的最新研究进展,结果显...