基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.     

黑龙江哈尔滨白渔泡国家湿地公园沼泽、林地和农田土壤物理、化学和生物性质差异

为了揭示黑龙江哈尔滨白渔泡国家湿地公园沼泽、林地和农田土壤物理、化学和生物性质的差异,于2018年7月25日~8月2日,在湿地公园内,在天然芦苇(Phragmites australis)沼泽、林地、旱田和水田中设置采样地,采集不同深度(0~10 cm、10~20 cm和20~30 cm)的土壤样品,测定土壤样品的物理、化学和生物指标。研究结果表明,白渔泡国家湿地公园不同采样地土壤指标存在差异;与天然芦苇沼泽土壤相比,其它采样地土壤的含水量明显偏低,土壤全氮、全磷、碱解氮和有机质含量都明显偏小,水田土壤速效磷含量偏大;天然芦苇沼泽土壤脲酶、硝酸还原酶、纤维素酶、蛋白酶和β-葡萄糖苷酶活性都高于林地和农田土壤,水田0~10 cm和10~20 cm深度土壤的硝酸还原酶活性显著高于旱田和林地;与天然芦苇沼泽土壤相比,旱田土壤小于0.25 mm的小团聚体含量偏大,而其它采样地土壤的各粒级团聚体的比例变化较小,水田土壤团聚体平均重量直径比天然芦苇沼泽和旱田土壤低。     

BORDER PORT MANZHOULh URBAN FUNCTION AND SPACE DEVELOPMENT

Manzhouli is the largest land port city on the Sino-Russia border, transit cargo through the land port amount-ed to 5.95 million tons, transit tourists were 304 500 in 2000. It stands at the joint place of China, Mongolia and Russi-a, faces to Siberia area of Russia, receives direct support from the Northeast China and Bohai Sea Rim Area, and possess-es priorities in geographical location, land port infrastructure, water resources, coal resources, tourist resources andgreat potentiality in economic cooperation with Russia. The future urban function is a key port on the First Eurasia Continen-tal Bridge. Manzhouli Port will keep its first place between China and Russia land transport, and it is forecasted that thetransit amount through Manzhouli Port will go up to 10 million tons in 2005 and 20 million tons in 2010. It will be construct-ed to be a trade center of the peripheral area extending to Russia and Mongolia, a key export-oriented processing industri-al zone supported by industries such as export processing industries, export agriculture, trade services, technology trad-ing and the other service industries. It keeps being a well-known touring city for trade, shopping, sightseeing, vocation,local food, recreation and cultural events. To build Manzhouli Export Processing Industry Zone will improve city econom-ic structure, and the main sectors are organic food processing, livestock products processing, garment and furniture indus-try. Moreover, Manzhouli Export Processing Industry Zone will eventually be upgraded to be a border free trade zone.The city functional transition will inevitably affect urban spatial restructure and its expansion. The city space transforma-tion will develop as such: one development axis of No. 301 highway paralleling with Bin - Zhou(Harbin - Manzhouli) rail-way which cuts through central part of Manzhouli City, and links Zhalainuocr District with central city; three urban unitsincluding central city, Zhalainuocr District and Manzhouli Interchange Trade Zone; cohesion with Aoerjin and Cuogangpastures; regional dual-nuclei structure of Hailaer City and Manhzouli City; and the Manzhouli-Zabaykalsk Free TradeZone.     

A STUDY ON LAND SYSTEM INNOVATIONS IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF SMALL TOWNS IN CHINA

The economic development in China and the rising of the living standard need to speed up the urbanisa-tion.The development of small towns is an important way to Chinese urbanization.Land use plays a very important role in the development of small towns.However there are many problems in the development of small towns,esp.in land use.The paper first discusses the land problems in the development of small towns.Such as much cultivated land lies idle,under-utilization and waste of land,increasing illegal use of land,unstable contractural relationship for land use.The relationship between the development of small towns and land use is also studied.Then the guidelines for the land system innovations of small towns are put forward.Namely the sustainability of social and economic development,the bal-ance between land reservation and land utilization,the provision of service to village ,agriculture and farmer,the manage-ment of land resource and land assets,the parsimonious andlegal use of land.The basic framework of land system innova-tions of small towns is put forward finally.It include the land replacement policy for small towns and the permanent tenan-cy of farmland,the overall plan for land uses and other plans in harmony,the establishment of a flexible system of land supplies,using land with payments ,the transfer of agricultural land and refining the land law related to the construction of small towns.     

THE POSITION AND ROLES OF PORTS AND RAILWAYS IN THE EURASIA LAND BRIDGE TRANSPORTATION IN NORTHEAST CHINA

This paper systematically analyzes and proves the favorable factors of utilizing the ports and the railways in Northeast China for the Asia-Europe land bridge transportation. It will be more beneficial to Dalian Port and HaDa (Harbin-Dalian) and Binzhou (Harbin-Manzhouli) railways in Northeast China to the Siberia railway in Russia than 1) to other ports and the corresponding railways in China, 2) to the Nakhodka Port in Russia and the corresponding railways and 3) to the Chongjin Port in North Korea and the corresponding railways. This paper also puts forward the reform measures to adopt the ports and the railways in the northeast region in China for the land bridge transportation and the problems in transportation policies and management systems.     

Revisiting Sustainable Development of Dry Valleys in Hengduan Mountains Region

Dry valleys are a striking geographic landscape in Hengduan Mountains Region and are characterized by low rainfall, desert type of vegetation and fragile environment. Past efforts and resources have been concentrated mainly on rehabilitation of degraded ecosystem and fragile environment, particularly reforestation, while socio-economic development has been largely overlooked. Despite successes in pocket areas, the overall trend of unsustainability and environmental deterioration are continuing. It is important to understand that uplift of the Tibetan Plateau is the root cause of development of dry valleys, and development and formation of dry valleys is a natural process. Human intervention has played a secondary role in development of dry valleys and degradation of dry valleys though human intervention in many cases has speeded up environmental degradation of the dry valleys. It is important to understand that dry valleys are climatic enclaves and an integrated approach that combines rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems and socio-economic development should be adopted if the overall goal of sustainable development of dry valleys is to be achieved. Promotion of niche-based cash crops, rural energy including hydropower, solar energy, biogas and fuelwood plantation is recommended as the priority activities.     

黄土高原古植被与再造山川秀美

要想恢复秀美的山川,主要在于恢复被人类严重破坏的原始植被.黄土高原的原始植被到底是什么样子,学者们说法不一.孢粉分析是最重要的方法.目前,研究结果已揭示出黄土高原古植被在第四纪以来显示着时间上、空间上的变化.古土壤代表间冰期夏季风盛行的湿热气候,植被比较繁盛;黄土代表冰期冬季风盛行的干冷气候,植被凋凌.全新世中期5000～6000年前,现代间冰期气候最佳时期,半坡人生存之时,森林茂密并有亚热带植物入侵,但兰州一带1万年来一直保持着荒漠草原的面貌.因此,黄土高原植被的恢复应参照各地的原始植被并考虑现代气候条件,因地制宜地实施.在东南部可以恢复森林,中西部可以恢复森林草原,西北部只能种草恢复草原.     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES OF WATER AND LAND RESOURCES IN THE HEXI REGION,CHINA

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