Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Early warning research on salt-alkalization desertification in western Songnen Plain

Desertification is an environmental issue in the world. The salt-alkalization desertification land area formed by both primary and secondary salt-alkalization has extended in a large scale, which has become a significant eco-environmental problem. Based on the characteristics of eco-environment and the situation of desertification in western Songnen plain, this paper reports the analyzes of its formation in background and cause. An early warning system on the salt-alkalization desertification is established and the GIS technology is used to abstract the information of desertification evaluation index. Supported by the integrated technology of the GIS and ANN, the orientation and quantitative result of desertification are gained, which is helpful to the eco-environment protection and resource development in western Songnen Plain.     

Pregalactic Chemistry

The evolution of the universe from times after the recombination of the first atoms is controlled by chemistry. Chemistry can also help us to learn more about the first structures. In this paper we review the chemistry and atomic physics that are important in the time shortly after recombination, including the formation of the first structures. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Radiative association in Li+H revisited: the role of quasi-bound states

The role in radiative association of narrow resonances arising from quasi-bound levels is examined. For the rate coefficient the contribution from such levels is readily calculated in terms of the Einstein A -coefficient from bound rovibrational levels generated using a suitable alternative boundary condition. By locating systematically all the quasi-bound levels, an enhancement by more than an order of magnitude of the rate coefficient for Li(2s) + H(1s) association above about 600 K is obtained. The effect on the LiH abundance in the early Universe is no more than an increase of a factor of 3 for limited ranges of values of the redshift. For the Li(2p) state the effect of narrow resonances appears to have been taken into account in previous calculations.     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Biostratigraphic and isotopic record of the Cenomanian–Turonian deposits in the Ohaba-Ponor section (SW Haţeg, Romania)

The middle Cenomanian–lower Turonian deposits of Ohaba-Ponor section (Southern Carpathians) were studied from biostratigraphic and isotopic points of view. Both the qualitative and semiquantitative nannofloral analyses, as well as the stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) data support significant palaeoenvironmental changes in the investigated interval. Two δ¹³C positive excursions were recognized: (1) an excursion up to 1.8‰ (PDB) within the middle/late Cenomanian boundary; (2) an excursion up to 2.2‰ (PDB) in the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary interval. The oldest δ¹³C positive excursion recorded (placed within the Acanthoceras jukes-brownei/Eucalycoceras pentagonum Ammonite Zone boundary interval, and in the NC11 Calcareous Nannofossil Zone respectively) could be assigned to the middle Cenomanian Event II (MCEII). During the above-mentioned event, significant increase in abundance of Watznaueria barnesae, followed by successive blooms of Biscutum constans and Eprolithus floralis, were observed. The youngest δ¹³C positive excursion was identified in the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary interval (in the NC12 and lower part of the NC13 Calcareous Nannofossil Zones). Even the amplitude of this δ¹³C positive excursion is lower in the Ohaba-Ponor section, as generally reported, this may represent the regional record of the OAE2. The successive peaks of the nannofossils Biscutum constans, Zeugrhabdotus erectus and Eprolithus floralis indicate episodes of cooler surface water and high fertility, which preceded and lasted the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary event. Additionally, fluctuations of δ¹⁸O values between −2 and −6‰ suggest also cooler conditions within the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary interval.