按不同气候背景制作单站MOS预报方程

在基层业务体制的框架基本形成以后，县局在参考上级指导预报的同时，初步开展对单站数值预报模式的研究，注意中、小尺度天气的变化规律，以提高订正预报的精度。     

陕西省山柞旬地区多金属矿床异常模式预测准则及地球化学环境预测

地球化学环境预测是综合信息成矿预测的重要方法之一。本文重点介绍了山（阳）柞（水）旬（阳）地区已知多金属矿床地球化学异常模式、预测准则及地球化学环境预测方法。并在预测中采用统计方法建立了本区金、铜、铅锌银及汞锑矿产地的混合优选模型及综合评价指标，同时预测了本区金和多金属矿的找矿远景区。     

A digital model to evaluate the water balance in a typical hardrock environment

A digital model was designed and developed to study the water balance situation in a typical hardrock environment near Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. The model was calibrated over a period of six years with observed field hydrographs. An optimum error factor of 0.001 m was chosen and the computer took 47 iterations for outputting the results with the desired accuracy. Prognostic studies were carried out with progressively increasing draft conditions and water levels were observed to be declining even when the draft was less than the recharge. The analysis of the experiments further amended the belief of the earlier workers.     

桂北江南古陆南缘拗褶带中铅锌矿产成矿信息特征及预测标志

本文通过研究与总结前人成果基础上.对桂北江南古陆南缘拗褶带中铅锌矿进行成矿预测。文中侧重探讨了该带的成矿环境、典型矿床特征、控矿因素和地球物理、地球化学特征;综合地、物、化成矿信息.总结提出了7 条成矿预测标志:采用特征分析法对该带中的19个成矿单元进行资源定性预测评价,认为其铅锌矿资源潜力较大,有找矿前景。     

Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

中国可供性煤炭资源潜力分析

以全国第三次煤田预测数据为基础,通过对查明煤炭资源量和未查明煤炭资源量的分布、埋藏深度和煤类的系统分析,指出中国查明尚未占用的煤炭储量2282.97亿t,经济可采储量仅684.89亿t。未查明的预测煤炭资源量45521.04亿t,潜力巨大,但在近期可供找煤普查的埋深小于1000m的预测可靠级煤炭资源量只有9169.10亿t。因此,必须科学地、客观地再认识中国煤炭资源优势,合理地制定国家能源政策,以确保中国能源安全。     

接触交代矽卡岩型铜矿床地球化学勘查预测指标

根据接触交代矽卡岩型铜矿床的地层、岩体、控矿构造、蚀变带、矿物地质地球化学特征,结合矿床元素组合、原生异常、元素异常分带规律等,总结出矽卡岩型矿床的岩体评价、剥蚀程度、隐伏矿预测3类地球化学勘查指标,为该类矿床的勘查研究提供了科学依据.     

多阈值灰色建模在震级预测中的应用

本文应用灰色理论中的多阈值预测方法,对鄂尔多斯块体及其附近区域(N33.0—43.0°,E105.0—117.0°)未来十年可能发生的地震震级进行预测,结果表明,可能发生M=6.0—7.0的地震两次。     

A SIMPLE PROGNOSTIC CLOSURE ASSUMPTION TO DEEP CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION:I

In this work,the problem of dependency of the predicted rainfall upon the grid-size in mesoscale numerical weatherprediction models is addressed.We argue that this problem is due to (i) the violation of the quasi-equilibrium assump-tion,which is underlying most existing convective parameterization schemes,and states that the convective activity maybe considered in instantaneous equilibrium with the larger-scale forcing;and (ii) the violation of the hydrostatic approx-imation,made in most mesoscale models,which would induce too large-scale circulation in occurrence of strong con-vection.On the contrary,meso-β and meso-α scale models,i.e.models with horizontal grid size ranging from 10 to 100km,have a capacity to resolve motions with characteristic scales close to the ones of the convective motions.Wehypothesize that a possible way to eliminate this problem is (i) to take a prognostic approach to the parameterization ofdeep convection,whereby the quantities that describe the activity of convection are no longer diagnosed from the instan-taneous value of the large-scale forcing,but predicted by time-dependent equations,that integrate the large-scale forc-ing over time;(ii)to introduce a mesoscale parameter which varies systematically with the grid size of the numericalmodel in order to damp large-scale circulation usually too induced when the grid size becomes smaller (from 100 km to10 kin).We propose an implementation of this idea in the frame of one existing scheme,already tested and used for along time at the French Weather Service.The results of the test through one-dimensional experiments with the Phase Ⅲof GATE data are reported in this paper;and the ones on its implementation in the three-dimensional model with theOSCAR data will be reported in a companion paper.     

A SIMPLE PROGNOSTIC CLOSURE ASSUMPTION TO DEEP CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION:Ⅱ

A series of 3D predictions,dealing with the development of a heavy storm observed during the OSCAR experiment,were carried out by utilizing the PERIDOT model,and introducing alternatively the cumulus parameterization scheme of Bougeault (1985) and the prognostic one (Chen,1989;Chen and Bougeault,1993),with three different grid sizes:160 km,80 km,40 km.The feasibility of the new prognostic scheme and its improvement on the problem of dependency of the predicted rainfall upon the grid size of the numerical model were verified by comparison of the rainfall observed and those predicted.The results demonstrate that,in general,the predicted rainfall increases when the grid size decreases for both diagnostic and prognostic schemes.However,with the new prognostic scheme,the numerical model is capable,on the one hand,for the larger grid sizes,to increase the rainfall,which is under-estimated with the scheme of Bougeault (1985);on the another hand,for the smaller grid sizes,to reduce the rainfall,which is usually over-estimated.In other word,there is an obvious improvement on the problem under study.