基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

基于噪声谱比法的内蒙古西部地区台站场地响应研究

利用内蒙古西部12个台站的地脉动噪声数据，采用噪声谱比法研究台站的场地响应情况。分析表明，台站场地响应按曲线形态可分为3类，且可能受地形地貌、局部构造和台基状况等条件影响。对比分析噪声谱比法与Moya方法的场地响应结果发现，场地响应曲线形态基本一致，只有极少数台站存在明显差异。结果表明，内蒙古西部区域大部分台站的台基状况总体较好，场地响应曲线较为平坦，无明显频率放大点。     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

BRINGING FORWARD OF THE CONCEPT OF COGIS AND ITS ARCHITECUTRE RESEARCH

Based on the analysis of the development of GIS technology and application,this paper brought forward the concept of GoGIS,namely Cooperative GIS ,CoGIS is GIS facing group-users and supporting human-human interaction,which makes it differ from the former GISs,Then,the characteristics of general Computer Spport Cooperative Work (CSCW)applications and the complexity of Geographic Information Science were analyzed,and the conclusion the CoGIS was not a simple GIS layer on CSCW was reached,Further,this paper gaver the hierarchical architecture of CoGIS,and analyzed the coperative platform in detail from the following:1)basic elements;2) collaboration patterns;3) cooperation control mechanism;4) synchronization mechanism;5) security and 6) group communication and so on.With those,the problems about GIS applications are discussed,such as 1)distributed multi-source GIS information and knowledge sharing platform;2)the fusion and visualization of GIS information;3)virtual reality cooperative modeling;4) dymamic simulation;5)expert system and 6) decision-making.Finally,this paper analyzed CoGIS application mode in brief.     

Tidal dwarfs in the M81 group: the second generation?

We present a quantitative star formation history derivation of the four suspected tidal dwarf galaxies in the M 81 group: Holmberg IX, BK3N,Arp-loop (A0952+69) and Garland using HST/WFPC2 images of these galaxies. We construct a library of synthetic Colour-Magnitude Diagrams(CMDs) based on theoretical isochrones and data-derived determinations of photometric errors. These synthetic CMDs were combined linearly andχ²-compared to observed photometry. All the galaxies show continuous star formation between about 20 and 200 Myr ago with star formation rates between 7.5⋅10^-3 M_⊙/yr and 7.67⋅10^-4 M_⊙/yr. The metallicity of the detected stars is spanning rather a wide range, being lower than solar abundance. We suppose, that all the galaxies were formed out of material from metal-poor outer part of the giant spiral galaxy M81after tidal interaction about 200 Myr ago. However, this suggestion requires significantly more deep color-magnitude diagrams to be sure with the scenario of the galaxy evolution. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The response of an elastic half‐space under a momentary shear line impulse

The response of an ideal elastic half‐space to a line‐concentrated impulsive vector shear force applied momentarily is obtained by an analytical–numerical computational method based on the theory of characteristics in conjunction with kinematical relations derived across surfaces of strong discontinuities. The shear force is concentrated along an infinite line, drawn on the surface of the half‐space, while being normal to that line as well as to the axis of symmetry of the half‐space. An exact loading model is introduced and built into the computational method for this shear force. With this model, a compatibility exists among the prescribed applied force, the geometric decay of the shear stress component at the precursor shear wave, and the boundary conditions of the half‐space; in this sense, the source configuration is exact. For the transient boundary‐value problem described above, a wave characteristics formulation is presented, where its differential equations are extended to allow for strong discontinuities which occur in the material motion of the half‐space. A numerical integration of these extended differential equations is then carried out in a three‐dimensional spatiotemporal wavegrid formed by the Cartesian bicharacteristic curves of the wave characteristics formulation. This work is devoted to the construction of the computational method and to the concepts involved therein, whereas the interpretation of the resultant transient deformation of the half‐space is presented in a subsequent paper. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Virtual Huanghe River System： Framework and Technology

1 Introduction Huanghe (Yellow) River basin is located in 32°–42°N, 96°–119°E. The area of the catchment is more than 752,000km2. The river is 5464km long with a drop in elevation of 4830m. Among the whole area, the moun- tainous and stone area accounts for 29%, loess and hills area 46%, sandy area 11% and plain area 14%, respec- tively. Different natural landscapes exist in this area. The Huanghe River flows through the Loess Plateau, where the soil is eroded seriously (Wang, 2002;…     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Damage identification method using harmonic excitation force considering both modelling and measurement errors

A method of structural damage identification using harmonic excitation force is presented. It considers the effects of both measurement and modelling errors in the baseline finite element model. Damage that accompanies changes in structural parameters can be estimated for a damaged structure from the change between measured vibration responses and ones calculated from the analytical model of the intact structure. In practice, modelling errors exist in the analytical model due to material and geometric uncertainties and a reduction in the degrees of freedom as well as measurement errors, making identification difficult. To surmount these problems, bootstrap hypothesis testing, which enables statistical judgment without information about these errors, was introduced. The method was validated by numerical simulation using a three‐dimensional frame structure and real vibration data for a three‐storey steel frame structure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.