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1.
利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化 相似文献
2.
模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。 相似文献
3.
利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1.09mas/a。 相似文献
4.
P-III分布参数的概率权重矩法S函数计算 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
概率权重矩法是一种估计统计分布参数的方法.本文根据不完全Γ函数在无限区间积分,推导了P-Ⅲ分布参数的S函数的计算公式.通过现有计算公式比较,其计算结果具有较高的计算精度,避免了的大量的数值积分计算.文中公式只要借助于计算编程进行求解,给定超几何函数项一定的截断误差,其运算具有较高的运行速度.文中计算公式是一种P-Ⅲ分布参数S函数的计算途径. 相似文献
5.
6.
1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun… 相似文献
7.
A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values. 相似文献
8.
Rifting to Spreading Process along the Northern Continental Margin of the South China Sea 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Understanding the development from syn-rift to spreading in the South China Sea (SCS) is important in elucidating the western Pacific's tectonic evolution because the SCS is a major tectonic constituent of the many marginal seas in the region. This paper describes research examining the transition from rifting to spreading along the northern margin of the SCS, made possible by the amalgamation of newly acquired and existing geophysical data. The northernmost SCS was surveyed as part of a joint Japan-China cooperative project (JCCP) in two phases in 1993 and 1994. The purpose of the investigation was to reveal seismic and magnetic characteristics of the transitional zone between continental crust and the abyssal basin. Compilation of marine gravity and geomagnetic data of the South China Sea clarify structural characteristics of its rifted continental and convergent margins, both past and present. Total and three component magnetic data clearly indicate the magnetic lineations of the oceanic basin and the magnetic characteristics of its varied margins. The analyses of magnetic, gravity and seismic data and other geophysical and geological information from the SCS led up to the following results: (1) N-S direction seafloor spreading started from early Eocene. There were at least four separate evolutional stages. Directions and rates of the spreading are fluctuating and unstable and spreading continued from 32 to 17 Ma. (2) The apparent difference in the present tectonism of the eastern and western parts of Continent Ocean Boundary (COB) implies that in the east of the continental breakup is governed by a strike slip faulting. (3) The seismic high velocity layer in the lower crust seems to be underplated beneath the stretched continental crust. (4) Magnetic anomaly of the continental margin area seems to be rooted in the uppermost sediment and upper part of lower crust based on the tertiary volcanism. (5) Magnetic quiet zone (MQZ) anomaly in the continental margin area coincides with COB. (6) The non-magnetic or very weakly magnetized layer is probably responsible for MQZ. One of the causes of demagnetization of the layer is due to hydrothermal alteration while high temperature mantle materials being underplated. Another explanation is that horizontal sequences of basalt each with flip-flop magnetization polarity cancel out to the resultant magnetic field on the surface. We are currently developing a synthetic database system containing datasets of seismicity, potential field data, crustal and thermal structures, and other geophysical data to facilitate the study of past, contemporary and future changes in the deep sea environment around Japan; i.e. trench, trough, subduction zones, marginal basins and island arcs. Several special characteristics are an object-oriented approach to the collection and multi-faceted studies of global data from a variety of sources. 相似文献
9.
More and more researches show that neither the critical downward acceleration nor the critical slope of water waves is a universal constant. On the contrary, they vary with particular wave conditions. This fact moders the models either for the probability of wave breaking B or for the whitecap coverage W based on these criteria difficult to apply. In this paper and the one which follows we seek to develop models for the prediction of both B and W based on the kinematical criterion. First, several joint probabihstic distribution functions (PDFs) of wave characteristics are derived, based on which the breaking properties B and W are estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that a wave breaks ff the horizontal velocity of water particles at its crest exceeds the local wave celerity, and whitecapping occurs in regions of fluid where water particles travel faster than the waves. The consequent B and W depend on wave spectral moments of orders 0 to 4.Then the JONSWAP spectrum is used to represent the fetch-limited sea waves in deep water, so as to relate the probahility of wave breaking and the whitecap coverage with wind parameters. To this end, the time-averaging technique proposed by Glazman (1986) is applied to the estimation of the spectral moments involved, and furthermore, the theoretical models are compared with available observations collected from published literature. From the comparison, the averaging time scale is determined. The final models show that the probability of wave breaking as well as the whitecap coverage depends on the dimensionless fetch. The agreement between these models and the database is reasonable. 相似文献
10.
以松辽盆地地质资料为基础,介绍了应力场和张裂缝预测的计算方法。通过了各种岩性的张破裂概率隶属函数,预测松辽盆地酉部张裂缝区的分布。据此,为今后的油气勘探提出了几点认识和建议。 相似文献