Evaluating simulated daily discharge for operational hydrological drought monitoring in the Global Drought Observatory (GDO)

ABSTRACT

Hydrological drought is currently underrepresented in global monitoring systems, mainly due the shortage of near real-time estimates of river discharge at the global scale. In this study, the outputs of the Lisflood model are used to define a low-flow drought index, which shows a good correspondence with long-term records of the Global Runoff Data Centre in the period 1980–2014, as well as with verified information from the literature on six major drought events (covering different regions and watershed sizes). In contrast, the near real-time simulation (from 2015 onward) provides temporally inconsistent estimates over about 20% of the modelled cells (mostly over South America and Central Africa), even if reasonable results are obtained over other regions, as confirmed by intercomparison with the operational outcomes of the European Drought Observatory for the 2018 drought. In spite of the highlighted limitations, valuable information for operational drought monitoring can be retrieved from these simulations.     

Evaluating the performance of a deterministic daily rainfall–runoff model in a low-flow context

The characterization of a stream's low-flow regime is required for ecological purposes, water quality studies and various other water projects. If observed stream flow records are insufficient, low-flow characteristics may need to be estimated from simulated daily stream flow time-series. The model employed should conceptualize low-flow generation mechanisms and surface–subsurface interactions adequately. The ability of the model to simulate low-flow regimes may be assessed by means of various low-flow analysis techniques. This paper illustrates the approach using the example of the physically based, semi-distributed VTI daily rainfall–runoff model. The model has been applied to five perennial headwater catchments in South Africa, which are located in different parts of the country, represent different physiographical environments and are characterized by different baseflow responses. The model simulations are evaluated in terms of both conventional goodness-of-fit criteria and several low-flow measures such as recession characteristics, baseflow volumes, flow duration curves and continuous low-flow events below specified threshold discharges. For all the catchments considered the model has been found to perform successfully in terms of conventional fit statistics and flow duration curves. However, its ability to reproduce recession characteristics and continuous low-flow spells appears to be less satisfactory. This suggests that daily model simulations should be evaluated by low-flow criteria, which are frequently ignored in water resource assessment practices. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ENSO循环与黄河上游径流的丰枯

1IntroductionScholarsoftheinternationalmeteorologicalandoceanographicalcirclesgenerallythinkElNinoeventhasoccurredwhenthepositivedeparturesofmeansea-surfacetemperature(SST)atEquatorialEastPacificOceanArea(lyingbetween0o-10oS,180o-90oW)occurcontinuallywith0.5oCexteedingthelong-rangemeanandcontinualperiodlastinghalfayear.TheyalsothinkLaNinaeventhasoccurredwhenthestrongernegativedeparturesoccur.SouthernOscillationoccurringsynchronouslywithElNinoindicatesitisaneventwithalternativeoccurrence…     

北极海冰对黄河上游汛期水量丰枯的影响分析

从北半球的冷源出发,以半球尺度来考虑北极海冰对黄河上游水量丰枯的影响,通过对北极海冰与黄河上游汛期水量的统计分析揭示其相关关系,并探讨北极海冰通过影响大气环流进而影响黄河上游水量的物理机制.     

贵州乌江水系枯水期河水硫同位素组成研究

对枯水期乌江及其主要支流河水的硫同位素组成进行了研究。河水SO42-的δ34S值在-15.7‰～18.9‰之间,干流δ34S值介于-3.7‰～0.0‰之间。主要支流河水的SO42-浓度和δ34S值具有明显的区域性差异:上游碳酸盐岩地区支流河水SO42-浓度较高而δ34S值较低,河水中的SO24-来源于煤中还原态硫的氧化、矿床硫化物氧化和大气降水;下游碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩地区支流河水则相反,具有较低SO24-浓度和较高δ34S值,河水中的SO24-来源于硫酸盐蒸发岩溶解、大气降水以及煤中还原态硫的氧化。干流的硫同位素组成显示枯水期河水中的硫酸盐主要来源于碳酸盐岩地区。     

喀斯特流域枯季径流衰减系数与地表形态特征相关分析研究

针对喀斯特流域地形、地貌对枯季径流的调蓄作用,选用乌江流域思南站以上19个水文站点枯季流量资料进行枯季径流衰减规律分析。根据枯季径流衰减曲线的拟合将枯季径流分为快速裂隙流和慢速裂隙流两段退水过程,并计算相应的衰减系数。通过对衰减系数与流域地表形态特征的单因素和多因素回归分析,确定影响衰减系数的主要影响因子为高程特征值和地形指数特征值,并建立两者与衰减系数的二元非线性回归方程(a1=0.781-0.266?ln(x)+0.633?ln(y),a2=0.061-0.016?ln(x)+0.044?ln(y)),其置信区间都大于99%,说明曲线整体拟合显著,为枯期径流衰减系数区域化分析及无/缺资料流域的水文模拟提供基础。      

The relationship between ENSO cycle and high and low-flow in the upper Yellow River

Firstly, the hydrological and meteorological features of the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag are analyzed based on observation data, and effects of EI Nino and La Nina events on the high and low flow in the upper Yellow River are discussed. The results show El Nino and La Nina events possess consanguineous relationship with runoff in the upper Yellow River. As a whole, the probability of low flow occurrence in the upper Yellow River is relatively great along with the occurrence of El Nino event. Moreover, the flood in the upper Yellow River occurs frequently with the occurrence of La Nina event. Besides, the results also show dissimilarity of El Nino event occurring time exerts greater impact on high flow and low flow in the upper Yellow River, that is, the probability of drought will be greater in the same year if El Nino event occurs in spring, the high-flow may happen in this year if El Nino occurs in summer or autumn; the longer the continuous period of El Nino is, the lower the runoff in the upper Yellow River is.     

刁江流域偏枯态水质安全风险分析

为实现刁江流域水质水量同步监测,收集了2018年非汛期至2019年汛期共14个地市的降水量、3个水文测站的逐时水位和流量、9个水质监测断面的实验检测成果等数据,借鉴美国环保署健康风险评价方法,对砷、镉、铅、铁、锰、铜、锌、汞共8种采、选、冶矿作业特征污染物的化学致癌风险指数和毒害风险指数等有关风险指标进行评价分析.结果...     

Detection of trends in the 7-day sustained low-flow time series of Irish rivers

A combination of statistical hypothesis testing methods (Mann-Whitney, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho) and visual exploratory analysis were used to investigate trends in Irish 7-day sustained low-flow (7SLF) series possibly driven by changes in summer rainfall patterns. River flow data from 33 gauging stations covering most major Irish rivers were analysed, after excluding catchments where low flows are influenced by significant human interventions. A statistically significant increasing trend in the 7SLF series was identified by all three tests at eight gauging stations; in contrast, a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified by all three tests at four stations. The stations with increasing trends are mainly located within the western half of the country, while there is no particular spatial clustering of the stations showing a decreasing trend. Further analysis suggests that the increasing trend in the 7SLF time series persists regardless of the starting year of analysis. However, the decreasing trend occurs only when years prior to 1970 are included in the analysis, and disappears, or is reversed, if only the data from 1970 and onwards are considered. There is strong evidence that the direction of the trends in the 7SLF series is determined mainly by trends in total summer rainfall amounts, i.e. is linked to weather.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Which objective function to calibrate rainfall–runoff models for low-flow index simulations?

Much has been written on the subject of objective functions to calibrate rainfall–runoff models. Many studies focus on the best choice for low-flow simulations or different multi-objective purposes. Only a few studies, however, investigate objective functions to optimize the simulations of low-flow indices that are important for water management. Here, we test different objective functions, from single objective functions with different discharge transformations or using low-flow indices, to combinations of single objective functions, and we evaluate their robustness and sensitivity to the rainfall–runoff model. We find that the Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) applied to a transformation of discharge is inadequate to fulfil all assessment criteria, whereas the mean of the KGE applied to the discharge and the KGE applied to the inverse of the discharge is sufficient. The robustness depends on the climate variability rather than the objective function and the results are insensitive to the model.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR C. Perrin