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青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。 相似文献
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本文从动力学定律出发,推导了一个线性的、具有下垫面温度耦合的大气环流的统计—动力模式,并用该模式对500hPa高度场及1000hPa温度场作1~30天的平均预报试验。模式的预报结果大大优于惯性预报,但耦合与不耦合的结果差别不大。 相似文献
4.
Long Waves Associated with Bichromatic Waves 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
DONG Guohai 《中国海洋工程》2001,(2):281-289
A numerical model of low frequency waves is presented. The model is based on that of Roelvink (1993), but the nu-merical techniques used in the solution are based on the so-called Weighted-Average Flux (WAF) method with Time-Operator-Splitting (TOS) used for the treatment of the source terms. This method allows a small number of computational points to be used, and is particularly efficient in modeling wave setup. The short wave (or primary wave) energy equation is solved with a traditional Lax-Wendroff technique. A nonlinear wave theory is introduced. The model described in this paper is found to be satisfactory in modeling low frequency waves associated with incident bichromalic waves. 相似文献
5.
Sea surface temperature variations in the southwestern South China Sea over the past 160 ka 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the southwestern South China Sea have been reconstructed for the past 160 ka using the Uk37 paleothermometer from the core MD01-2392. The temperature differences between glacial times (MISs 6 and 2) and interglacial times (MISs 5.5 and 1) are 2.2~2.5 ℃. Younger Dryas event during the last deglaciation was documented in both the planktonic foraminiferal δ18O and SST records. After MIS 5.5, SSTs displayed a progressive cooling from 28.6 to 24.5 ℃, culminating at the LGM. During this gradual cooling period, warm events such as MISs 5.3, 5.1 and 3 were also clearly documented. By comparison of SST between the study core and Core 17954, a pattern of low or no meridional SST gradients during the interglacial periods and high meridional SST gradients during the glacial periods was exhibited. This pattern indicates the much stronger East Asian winter monsoon at the glacial than at the interglacial periods. Spectral analysis gives two prominent cycles: 41 and 23 ka, with the former more pronounced, suggesting that SSTs in the southern SCS varied in concert with high-latitude processes through the connection of East Asian winter monsoon. 相似文献
6.
一个简单食物链的能流实验 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
食物链能量转换是生态系统的主要功能之一。海洋生物生产就是海洋食物链能量流动的一种表现形式。它把来自以藻类为主的植物性生产,通过被食-取食多级转换,形成了贝、虾、鱼等各级动物性生产,这就为人类提供了丰富的渔业资源。海岸带水域是我国目前海洋开发的主攻目标,揭示这个海区中食物链能流转移过程,对其经济生物生产力估算和开发前景预测有着重要意义。测定自然条件下海洋食物链能流是极其困难的。借助实验结果进而推算,就比较方便。本研究选择我国海岸带水域中属于不同营养级的4个经济种,构成一个简单的人工食物链,即金藻(… 相似文献
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The application of very large floating structure (VLFS) to the utilization of ocean space and exploitation of ocean resources has become one of the issues of great interest in international ocean engineering field. Owing to the advantage of simplicity in structure and low cost of construction and maintenance, box-type VLFS can be used in the calm water area near the coast as the structure configuration of floating airport. In this paper, a 3D linear hydroelastic theory is used to study the dynamic response of box-type VLFS in sinusoidal regular waves. A beam model and a 3D FEM model are respectively employed to describe the dynamic characteristics of the box-type structure in vacuum. A hydrodynamic model (3D potential theory of flexible body) is applied to investigate the effect of different dry models on the hydroelastic response of box-type structure. Based on the calculation of hydroelastic response in regular waves, the rigid body motion displacement, flexible deflection, and the short term and long 相似文献
9.
山东荣成市成山头南侧发育了一条沙坝和一系列的湖 ,组成成山卫湖链 ,以面积最大的天鹅湖有关资料为主 ,运用粒度分析、软体动物鉴定、14 C测年等方法 ,对So5 ,Sh5 ,Sh1和Sh6孔岩心进行分析 ,揭示了该湖链的形成过程 :距今 70 0 0a左右 ,海水开始入侵 ,形成了荣成湾 ,距今 6 0 0 0a左右 ,沙坝和坝内的一系列半封闭湖形成 .根据沙坝层理的观测资料分析了湖形成后自然作用下的演化动态 ,并指出近年来由于人类活动加剧 ,严重影响了湖的演化过程 相似文献
10.
Symbiotic Relations of Sediment-Agglutinating Nematodes and Bacteria in Detrital Habitats: The Enzyme-Sharing Concept 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Abstract. A new concept (‘enzyme sharing’) concerning the interaction of marine nematodes and microbes in the degradation of sedimentary detritus is presented. Elements of this concept are (1) the notorious tendency of many aquatic nematodes to agglutinate detrital particles by mucus secretions, (2) new observations on the stimulation of microbial growth by nematodes in agar plates, and (3) literature data on limited endogenous proteolytic capacities of aquatic nematodes. Observations on nematode‐microbe associations in agar plates prompted the conceptual synthesis. In agar medium without the addition of any nutrients a spectacular growth of bacteria was visible on the sinusoidal crawling trails of nematodes only 2 – 3 days after introduction of the worms (species of Adoncholaimus, Anoplostoma and Sabatieria). Juveniles of Anoplostoma that hatched in the agar cultures left their minute trails in the medium and these were rapidly occupied by bacteria. The nematodes repeatedly visited their bacterial trails, which persisted as a peculiar biotic structure for more than one year and survived the nematodes.In sterile agar preparations containing the fluorogenic methylumbelliferyl‐β‐glucoside in the presence of the nematode Adoncholaimus, an enhanced fluorescence of the medium was visible, indicating β‐glucosidase activity. We therefore assume that oncholaimid nematodes discharge enzymes that alone, or in concert with microbial activities, contribute to the hydrolytic cleavage of refractory polysaccharides containing β‐glucosidic bonds such as agar components and cellulose. The sugars thus produced may then be taken up by the nematodes and concomitantly support the conspicuous growth of microbes. Since we did not observe any feeding of the nematodes on the associated microbes in agar plates, we question the nutritive potential of intact microbial cells for a number of nematodes abounding in detrital habitats, and call attention to the significance of ambient dissolved or adsorbed organic monomeric nutrients.Consequently, we perceive the puzzling perpetual accretion of detrital organic particles to sediment agglutinations by nematodes as an adaptation for operating an ‘enzymatic reactor’ for the production of dissolved nutrients. We hypothesise a relationship of mutual commensalism of nematodes and heterotrophic microbes in detrital habitats and propose the term ‘enzyme sharing’ for this relationship. Both parties invest in a common enzyme pool that decomposes organic detritus for their nutrition. We present here evidence that nematodes contribute β‐glucosidase, which is involved in the cellulase system. Data from the literature suggest that microbial enzymatic processing of detrital proteins yields amino acids available to nematodes, which apparently have no efficient proteolytic enzyme system in their intestines. 相似文献