The probabilistic key-group method

Key-block approaches are widely used in the analysis of rock slopes. The key-group method improves such analyses by taking into account groups of blocks instead of single blocks. Nevertheless, these stability analyses are usually carried out within a context where uncertainty may be a difficult problem to overcome. In the present paper, we propose introducing probabilistic approaches into the key-group method in order to account for uncertainty in the mechanical parameters of the problem to be solved. Both the first-order, second-moment method (FOSM) and the advanced second-moment method (ASMM) are considered herein and compared with Monte-Carlo simulations through the use of five theoretical case studies. Lastly, the probabilistic key-group method (PKGM) is qualified. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.