基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

A multiscale work-analysis approach for geotechnical structures

This paper presents a second-order work analysis in application to geotechnical problems by using a novel effective multiscale approach. To abandon complicated equations involved in conventional phenomenological models, this multiscale approach employs a micromechanically-based formulation, in which only four parameters are involved. The multiscale approach makes it possible a coupling of the finite element method (FEM) and the micromechanically-based model. The FEM is used to solve the boundary value problem (BVP) while the micromechanically-based model is utilized at the Gauss point of the FEM. Then, the multiscale approach is used to simulate a three-dimensional triaxial test and a plain-strain footing. On the basis of the simulations, material instabilities are analyzed at both mesoscale and global scale. The second-order work criterion is then used to analyze the numerical results. It opens a road to interpret and understand the micromechanisms hiding behind the occurrence of failure in geotechnical issues.     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

Magnetic Reconnection, Turbulence, and Collisionless Shock

A short summary of recent progress in measuring and understanding turbulence during magnetic reconnection in laboratory plasmas is given. Magnetic reconnection is considered as a primary process to dissipate magnetic energy in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas. A central question concerns why the observed reconnection rates are much faster than predictions made by classical theories, such as the Sweet–Parker model based on MHD with classical Spitzer resistivity. Often, the local resistivity is conjectured to be enhanced by turbulence to accelerate reconnection rates either in the context of the Sweet–Parker model or by facilitating setup of the Pestchek model. Measurements at a dedicated laboratory experiment, called MRX or Magnetic Reconnection Experiment, have indicated existence of strong electromagnetic turbulence in current sheets undergoing fast reconnection. The origin of the turbulence has been identified as right-hand polarized whistler waves, propagating obliquely to the reconnecting field, with a phase velocity comparable to the relative drift velocity. These waves are consistent with an obliquely propagating electromagnetic lower-hybrid drift instability driven by drift speeds large compared to the Alfven speed in high-beta plasmas. Interestingly, this instability may explain electromagnetic turbulence also observed in collisionless shocks, which are common in energetic astrophysical phenomena.     

形变大地测量学的进展、问题与地震预报

简要概括了形变大地测量学的革命性进展，研讨了它的科学特色、功能和定义以及对地球科学和防灾减灾的推动。形变大地测量学有助于从根本上击破多年来制约地震预报的“瓶颈”，但也存在不少急待解决的问题。着重研讨了在21世纪前10年，形变大地测量学如何依托多年的学科积累并充分受益于人造卫星和数字化等新技术，开展创新性研究和试验以推进地震预报。为此，对当前的研究工作提出了12条科学技术途径。最后对学科名称提出了建议。     

K-H Instability of Dust Plasma

Areview about K-H instability related to comet tail is presented.The effect of dust graing on KHI is theoretically analysed and relations of critical shear to excit KHI with the properties of dust grains both for sheared ion flow and for sheared dust flow re put out.Their possible application in comet tail is suggested.     

Prediction of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters using Instance-Based Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithms

In this article we present a method for the automated prediction of stellar atmospheric parameters from spectral indices. This method uses a genetic algorithm (GA) for the selection of relevant spectral indices and prototypical stars and predicts their properties, using the k-nearest neighbors method (KNN). We have applied the method to predict the effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, luminosity class and spectral class of stars from spectral indices. Our experimental results show that the feature selection performed by the genetic algorithm reduces the running time of KNN up to 92%, and the predictive accuracy error up to 35%. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

黑洞吸积盘的演化及温度分布的热不稳定性

本文在Ｔｈｏｒｎｅ工作的基础上讨论了吸积盘中黑洞的有关参量的演化，以及由Ｓｃｈｗａｒｚｓｃｈｉｌｄ黑洞吸积盘向Ｋｅｒｒ黑洞吸积盘演化过程中对吸积盘辐射通量的影响，最后针对几个典型的辐射过程，分别讨论了黑洞吸积盘在牛顿框架中的温度分布方程与广义相对论的温度分布方程的热不稳定性，并给出此类问题的热不稳定性的判据。