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Bruce A. Callander 《GeoJournal》1997,42(1):55-63
IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described. 相似文献
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As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique
potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of
this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties
in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region.
Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region
have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement
potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not
impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently,
the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region
into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia,
which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The
paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers
to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed
in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to
others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the
region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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太阳是地球流体(大气和海洋等)运动的最终能量源,地球环境,尤其是气候的变化不能不与太阳活动有关.目前,普遍将全球增暖归结为温室气体含量增加所导致的温室效应的加剧,这无疑是有一定依据和有道理的.但从科学上来讲,人类活动所引起温室气体增加的影响,并非是唯一原因.基于已有的一些研究结果,从太阳活动的观点所进行的初步分析表明,太阳活动也可能是引起近世纪全球增暖的另一个重要原因.太阳活动的影响主要包括太阳辐射的直接影响和引发地磁场变化的间接影响两个方面,地球磁场的变化将可通过动力过程和热力过程而影响大气环流和气候的变化. 相似文献
6.
内蒙古草原温室气体排放日变化规律研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
采用静态值-气相色谱法研究内蒙古草原温室气体N2O、CO2、CH4与大气交换的日变化规律。CO2日排放变化形式基本相同,和大气交换的总结果是向大气排放,影响草原N2O排放日变化形式的关键是土壤含水量和表层土壤理化特性,日温变化主要影响其日变化强度;影响草原CH4日变化形式的关键因子是土壤水分和供氧状况,而温度和植物的生长状况则影响吸收强度,利用内蒙古草原温室气候排放相对固定的日变化形式,可以对相同生产季内每周1次的观测结果进行矫正。 相似文献
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文章根据1965~2000年河北省日光温室试验观测资料及各地历年低温寡照对蔬菜的影响程度,确定了低温寡照灾害等级指标,分析了低温寡照的时空分布规律,20世纪80年代以后,河北省各市低温寡照发生次数比60、70年代明显增多;随着纬度增高,河北省低温寡照发生次数明显减少,危害程度明显减轻。 相似文献
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MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
1 INTRODUCTION Being an important composition of the atmosphere, aerosol attracts increasing attention from the scientific community in recent years, together with the radiative forcing it causes and effects it imposes on the climate system. The anthropogenic aerosol affects the climate both directly and indirectly. The climate is directly affected when solar shortwave radiation is scattered and absorbed in what is known as the 搖mbrella effect? which can be dated back to as early as mor… 相似文献
9.
未来全球气候变化是人们关注的重大课题。从内蒙古盐湖近20ka气候演变的研究可知,地质时期和历史时期气候波动变化是有规律可循的。用已经了解的这种变化规律来予测未来气候变化是有价值的。研究表明,未来1ka左右全球为暖期,之后将进入下一个冰期。 相似文献
10.
试论温室效应对我国西部河川径流的影响 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
大气中日益增多的温室气体使我国西部地区的气候近三四十年来出现了干暖化趋势,导致河川径流量明显减少。据统计,从50年代后半期到80年代,新疆地区的河种径流量减少了6.4%,西藏东南部的3条大河从60年代到80年代则平均减少了13.2%,其减少量大于新疆,这主要是因为气温升高使冰雪融水增加,新疆的河流受到冰雪融水的补偿,虽然西藏东南部的河注也有冰川存在,甚至冰种覆盖面积远大于新疆一些内陆河流域,但那里 相似文献