Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Muon density measurements with the KASCADE central detector

Frequency distributions of local muon densities in high-energy extensive air showers (EAS) are presented as signature of the primary cosmic ray energy spectrum in the knee region. Together with the gross shower variables like shower core position, angle of incidence, and the shower sizes, the KASCADE experiment is able to measure local muon densities for two different muon energy thresholds. The spectra have been reconstructed for various core distances, as well as for particular subsamples, classified on the basis of the shower size ratio N_μ/N_e. The measured density spectra of the total sample exhibit clear kinks reflecting the knee of the primary energy spectrum. While relatively sharp changes of the slopes are observed in the spectrum of EAS with small values of the shower size ratio, no such feature is detected at EAS of large N_μ/N_e ratio in the energy range of 1–10 PeV. Comparing the spectra for various thresholds and core distances with detailed Monte Carlo simulations the validity of EAS simulations is discussed.     

Spectroscopic studies of three novae

We present our spectroscopic observations of the novae V1425, V1493, and V1494 Aql carried out with the 125-cm telescope at the Crimean Station of the Sternberg Astronomical Institute in the wavelength range 4000–11000 Å. We measured the emission-line intensities, determined the nova shell expansion velocities from the line profile FWHMs and components, and estimated the interstellar reddening from the first members of the Balmer series. The chemical composition of the nova shells is analyzed. Nitrogen and oxygen were found to be overabundant in V1425 and V1494 Aql; the helium abundance turned out to be normal in the two stars.     

Palaeointensity In the Pelagic Realm: Marine Sediment Data Compared With Archaeomagnetic and Lake Sediment Records

Summary. Four box cores collected from the Ontong—Java plateau during the Eurydice expedition have been used to make relative geomagnetic palaeo-intensity measurements. Rock magnetic measurements on the sediments show that they are characterized by a uniform magnetic mineralogy, and that they are suitable for relative intensity estimates. These are obtained by normalizing the NRM by an ARM imparted in a low DC bias field. the palaeoceanographic event known as the preservation spike is used to establish a crude time-scale for the record so that it may be compared with other data from the same region, and also with global palaeointensity estimates. the marine sediment data are quite similar to Australian intensity data from lake sediments and archaeomagnetic sources, but as might be expected exhibit some obvious differences from the global record.     

莱州湾南岸潍河下游地区咸水入侵灾害成因及特征

通过对莱州湾南岸咸水入侵较严重地潍河下游地区晚更新世以来沉积特征及现代自然环境条件变化的分析，探讨了沉积相对咸水入侵产生及空间范围特征的环境机理。晚更新世以来的三次海平面升降变化造成了潍河下游地区海陆沉积环境交替，形成了巨厚的海陆交互相沉积层。海进时期，大面积的滨海平原被淹没，在近海平原洼地滞留的海水经过蒸发、浓缩变为卤水，成为咸水入侵的物源；海退后陆源碎屑在滨海地区沉积形成了巨厚的古河道砂层。20世纪70年代末期以来，随着对地下淡水的过度开采，淡咸水水头压力差减小．卤水通过古河道砂层快速南侵。通过对潍河下游地区100余个地质钻孔水化学连续监测资料分析，阐明了咸水入侵的特征，有针对性地提出了咸水入侵的防治措施。     

SOME IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS OFSURFACE ALBEDO OF CHINA IN RECENT YEARS

Sdsealbedoisdefinedasaratioofreflectivesolarradiationtototalacradiation,whichcanindicatetheaborptionandreflectivecapabilityofthe~hforsolarradiation.Itisan~tfactortoinfluencethes~radiationbalance,espeiallyfortheformationandvariationoflocalndcroclirnate.Generally,theactualdatafromo~tionalstationSforrebationareedintheanalysisofsolacealal.HOwever,therepresentativenessOfthedateisIratedduetothescarcityofobservationalstationandunevendistributionofs~condition.Afterthe1960s,theanalysisfors~ealbedoise…     

台湾海峡西岸重力场变化梯度场图像分析

讨论了应用曲面拟合技术和利用离散的重力观测点的重力变化对特定研究区的重力场变化进行数值模拟以获取该区重力变化空间梯度场图像的具体方法;并应用该方法获得了2004年3月福建安溪3.6级地震前的重力变化空间梯度场图像,发现空间梯度场图像能清晰地反映出地震前重力场群体性变化的差异性;利用此方法对2005年6月~2006年3月间台湾海峡西岸重力场变化进行数值模拟,获得其空间梯度场图像。     

Impact of the seasonal variations of composition on the temperature field of Titan’s stratosphere

We investigate the role of seasonal variations of Titan’s stratospheric composition on the temperature. We use a general circulation model coupled with idealized chemical tracers that reproduce variations of ethane (C₂H₆), acetylene (C₂H₂), and hydrogen cyanide (HCN). Enhancement of the mole fractions of these compounds, at high latitudes in the winter hemisphere relative to their equatorial values, induces a relative decrease in temperature above approximately 0.2 mbar, with a peak amplitude around −20 K, and a relative increase in temperature below, around 1 mbar, with a peak amplitude around +7 K. These thermal effects are mainly due to the variations of the cooling to space induced by the varying distributions. The ethane, acetylene, and hydrogen cyanide variations affect the cooling rates in a similar way, with the dominant effect being due to ethane, though its latitudinal variations are small.     

应用GPS观测青藏高原东北缘应力场变化

采用各向同性弹性地球模型推导了地面位移场速率与地壳内任意点应力场变化的边界积分关系,同时利用青藏高原东北缘1999～2001年观测的GPS资料对观测区地壳深度为5 km和25 km的主应力和最大剪应力进行了计算分析.结果表明,青藏高原东北缘的主应力变化主要集中在祁连山断裂、海原断裂等,在1920～1954年间历史上发生过多次震级为7.0～8.5级强震的断裂附近,并具有主应力变化沿断层走向分布、最大剪应力沿断层走向交替变化等特征.