莱州湾南岸潍河下游地区咸水入侵灾害成因及特征

通过对莱州湾南岸咸水入侵较严重地潍河下游地区晚更新世以来沉积特征及现代自然环境条件变化的分析，探讨了沉积相对咸水入侵产生及空间范围特征的环境机理。晚更新世以来的三次海平面升降变化造成了潍河下游地区海陆沉积环境交替，形成了巨厚的海陆交互相沉积层。海进时期，大面积的滨海平原被淹没，在近海平原洼地滞留的海水经过蒸发、浓缩变为卤水，成为咸水入侵的物源；海退后陆源碎屑在滨海地区沉积形成了巨厚的古河道砂层。20世纪70年代末期以来，随着对地下淡水的过度开采，淡咸水水头压力差减小．卤水通过古河道砂层快速南侵。通过对潍河下游地区100余个地质钻孔水化学连续监测资料分析，阐明了咸水入侵的特征，有针对性地提出了咸水入侵的防治措施。     

Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.     

Statistical analysis of surface hydrography and circulation variations in northern South China Sea

1 INTRODUCTIONThe South China Sea (SCS) is a semi-enclosedmarginal sea in western North Pacific Ocean withvery complex topography and is the important pas-sage connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Ithas great impact to the global climate and a greatinterest of many oceanography researchers. Twodominant surface hydrographic and circulation fea-tures in the northern SCS are a strong fresh waterexpansion and a warm and high-salinity seawaterintrusion such as the SCS Diluted Water…     

On salinity regimes and the vertical structure of residual flows in narrow tidal estuaries

An examination is made of the circulation in narrow estuaries subject to a predominant tidal forcing. Velocity structures are derived separately for residual flow components associated with (a) river flow, (b) wind stress, (c) a well-mixed longitudinal density gradient and (d) a fully stratified saline wedge. Dimensionless parameters are introduced to indicate the magnitude of each component and these parameters are evaluated for 9 major estuaries, thereby revealing their sensitivity to each component.For a channel of constant breadth and depth, formulae are deduced for the length of saline intrusion, L. Comparisons with observed data show that such formulae may be used with confidence to predict changes in L arising from variations in river flow, tidal range or channel depths.The level of stratification is shown to be related to a product of two parameters, one associated with velocity structure and a second involving the square of the ‘flow ratio’ $\text{u}\text{u}\text{?}$ (i.e. residual velocity/amplitude of the tidal velocity). This relationship provides a simple classification system for estuarine stratification which can be used to indicate the sensitivity of any particular estuary to changing conditions.     

Simulation of double cold cores of the 35°N section in the Yellow Sea with a wave-tide-circulation coupled model

Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model, the temperature structure along 35°N in the Yellow Sea was simulated and compared with the observations. One of the notable features of the temperature structure along 35°N section is the double cold cores phenomena during spring and summer. The double cold cores refer to the two cold water centers located near 122°E and 125°E from the depth of 30m to bottom. The formation, maintenance and disappearance of the double cold cores are discussed. At least two reasons make the temperature in the center (near 123°E) of the section higher than that near the west and east shores in winter. One reason is that the water there is deeper than the west and east sides so its heat content is higher. The other is invasion of the warm water brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) during winter. This temperature pattern of the lower layer (from 30m to bottom) is maintained through spring and summer when the upper layer (0 to 30m) is heated and strong thermocline is formed. Large zonal span of the 35°N section (about 600 km) makes the cold cores have more opportunity to survive. The double cold cores phenomena disappears in early autumn when the west cold core vanishes first with the dropping of the thermocline position. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

今后几年的月球探测和月球科学

近年来月球探测已经进入了一个全新的时代。特别是 1 990年以来 ,多个月球探测计划已经被成功实现 ,而且另外还有多个探测计划也在准备当中 ,并将在未来的几年内发射升空。在这种背景之下 ,中国的航天机构和有关的科学家也开始积极酝酿和开发自己的月球探测计划。这些月球探测计划将利用卫星上搭载的各种仪器探测和测量月球的地质和地理特性、化学成分和矿物组成、月球物理学特征以及包含地球大气在内的地月空间环境和行星际空间环境 ;进一步研究月球的起源和演化 ,探明月面环境 ,研究太阳等离子体物理 ,提供月面天文台和月面长期科研基地的候选地址 ,调查月球上的可利用资源 ,为将来开发月球提供充实的背景资料。参与新一轮的月球探测同样也为中国天文学研究带来了新的机会。     

公共行政监督的"经济解释"及其启示

行政腐败和行政作弊现象使政府行政的合法性受到人们的置疑 ,深入推行的廉政建设责任制反映了政府在这一问题上理论认识的巨大进步与从严治政的重大决心。公共选择理论认为 ,官僚的经济人属性不会因其成为政府官僚而改变 ,其目标不是公共利益也不是机构效率 ,而是个人效用 ;西方国家的“三权分立”学说及其实践对于公共行政的监督具有重大的历史进步意义 ,但其精致架构的私有制基础决定了这种民主可能只具有形式主义的性质 ,它只是一种富人之间的游戏规则与表现形式。毛泽东的“双平行制约”理论与方法是中国共产党人对公共行政理论与实践的巨大贡献 ,效果奇特却存在着一系列致命的弊端。对上述理论与实践的比较研究 ,为我国当前广泛展开的廉政建设提出了一些深层次的启发性思考     

GENIE – The Darwin demonstrator

Darwin is a cornerstone mission of the Horizons 2000+ program of the European Space Agency. It has the express purpose of carrying out the first direct search for terrestrial exoplanets, and to achieve unprecedented spatial resolution in the infrared wavelength region. The detection and study of terrestrial exoplanets promises to usher in a new era in science and will affect a broad spectrum of disciplines. Further, the time line for implementation of such an instrument is now likely to be of the close order of 10 years, leading to possible answers to one of mankind's most fundamental questions in the second decade of the 21st century. It has been found that in order to realize am interferometer in space in the next 10–15 years, it is necessary to prepare the way through a number of intermediary steps – both on the ground and in space. In this context, we here describe GENIE – a ground based nulling interferometry experiment to be implemented at the VLTI in a partnership between ESA and ESO. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.