A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

High-T phase transition of synthetic ANaB(LiMg)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 amphibole: an X-ray synchrotron powder diffraction and FTIR spectroscopic study

The synthetic amphibole Na_0.95(Li_0.95Mg_1.05)Mg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P2₁ /m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and 3,712 cm⁻¹, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm⁻¹. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (^A□_0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a T _c of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P2₁ /m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ^ANa_0.8^B(Na_0.8Mg_1.2)^CMg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the T _c of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy.     

啤麦穗粒结构的分阶段气候评价和预报方法研究

通过对十多年来啤麦穗粒结构与气象条件的关系的计算分析,得出了啤麦不同生育阶段影响穗粒结构的主要气象要素,并建立起其间的线性关系模式,为对啤麦产量构成要素进行分阶段的气候评价和预报提供了新的方法。     

Geology of the Victor Kimberlite, Attawapiskat, Northern Ontario, Canada: cross-cutting and nested craters

The pipe shapes, infill and emplacement processes of the Attawapiskat kimberlites, including Victor, contrast with most of the southern African kimberlite pipes. The Attawapiskat kimberlite pipes are formed by an overall two-stage process of (1) pipe excavation without the development of a diatreme (sensu stricto) and (2) subsequent pipe infilling. The Victor kimberlite comprises two adjacent but separate pipes, Victor South and Victor North. The pipes are infilled with two contrasting textural types of kimberlite: pyroclastic and hypabyssal-like kimberlite. Victor South and much of Victor North are composed of pyroclastic spinel carbonate kimberlites, the main features of which are similar: clast-supported, discrete macrocrystal and phenocrystal olivine grains, pyroclastic juvenile lapilli, mantle-derived xenocrysts and minor country rock xenoliths are set in serpentine and carbonate matrices. These partly bedded, juvenile lapilli-bearing olivine tuffs appear to have been formed by subaerial fire-fountaining airfall processes.

The Victor South pipe has a simple bowl-like shape that flares from just below the basal sandstone of the sediments that overlie the basement. The sandstone is a known aquifer, suggesting that the crater excavation process was possibly phreatomagmatic. In contrast, the pipe shape and internal geology of Victor North are more complex. The northwestern part of the pipe is dominated by dark competent rocks, which resemble fresh hypabyssal kimberlite, but have unusual textures and are closely associated with pyroclastic juvenile lapilli tuffs and country rock breccias±volcaniclastic kimberlite. Current evidence suggests that the hypabyssal-like kimberlite is, in fact, not intrusive and that the northwestern part of Victor North represents an early-formed crater infilled with contrasting extrusive kimberlites and associated breccias. The remaining, main part of Victor North consists of two macroscopically similar, but petrographically distinct, pyroclastic kimberlites that have contrasting macrodiamond sample grades. The juvenile lapilli of each pyroclastic kimberlite can be distinguished only microscopically. The nature and relative modal proportion of primary olivine phenocrysts in the juvenile lapilli are different, indicating that they derive from different magma pulses, or phases of kimberlite, and thus represent separate eruptions. The initial excavation of a crater cross-cutting the earlier northwestern crater was followed by emplacement of phase (i), a low-grade olivine phenocryst-rich pyroclastic kimberlite, and the subsequent eruption of phase (ii), a high-grade olivine phenocryst-poor pyroclastic kimberlite, as two separate vents nested within the original phase (i) crater. The second eruption was accompanied by the formation of an intermediate mixed zone with moderate grade. Thus, the final pyroclastic pipe infill of the main part of the Victor North pipe appears to consist of at least three geological/macrodiamond grade zones.

In conclusion, the Victor kimberlite was formed by several eruptive events resulting in adjacent and cross-cutting craters that were infilled with either pyroclastic kimberlite or hypabyssal-like kimberlite, which is now interpreted to be of probable extrusive origin. Within the pyroclastic kimberlites of Victor North, there are two nested vents, a feature seldom documented in kimberlites elsewhere. This study highlights the meaningful role of kimberlite petrography in the evaluation of diamond deposits and provides further insight into kimberlite emplacement and volcanism.     

ＣＬＭ３０对中国区域陆面过程的模拟试验 及评估Ⅱ：土壤湿度

利用NCAR公用陆面模式（Community Land Model 3.0,CLM3.0）及普林斯顿大学1948—2001年1°×1°、3 h一次的全球大气近地面强迫资料,对中国地区1948-2001年的土壤温度进行了off-line模拟试验,通过对模拟结果和全国台站观测土壤温度资料的对比,评估了CLM3.0对中国区域不同层次土壤温度的模拟能力。结果表明：模式能模拟出中国地区多年平均土壤温度的空间分布型,除部分地区模拟比观测偏高外,模式模拟的土壤温度普遍偏低;模式能较好地反映出中国地区土壤温度的年际变化,对4月的模拟稍好于7月。对于划分的8个子区域,东部区域模拟好于其它各区,除高原一带外,表层的模拟均好于深层;模式基本能抓住土壤温度的变化趋势,而且模拟出了7月长江流域以南地区土壤温度显著降低这一趋势,但模拟的趋势比观测有所偏弱。     

我国生态文明评价指标体系综述

在推进生态文明建设的背景下,构建生态文明评价指标体系对生态文明发展状况进行监测和预警,为生态文明建设提供决策支持,具有十分重要的意义.本文根据生态文明的本质内涵,回顾了可持续发展概念自提出以来生态文明评价指标体系的发展历程,对我国生态文明建设相关的评价指标体系进行归纳和总结;重点以政府管理实践中的生态文明评价指标体系为例,分析了我国生态文明评价指标体系的特征与存在的问题.     

Where is my neighborhood? A dynamic individual-based definition of home ranges and implementation of multiple evaluation criteria

With the growing interest in studying characteristics of geographical context and its influence upon people, the concept of home range has been a focus of scholarly research. Home ranges are studied extensively across multiple disciplines, with literature supporting different operationalization techniques. This article argues that many of the existing approaches are not dynamic and versatile enough and do not provide reliable solutions for estimating individual home ranges. We additionally argue that many of current studies lack robust evaluation approaches. Recent evidences suggest that the usual approaches, which often exclusively rely on a single validation criterion, are not reliable and may be influenced by inferential errors. This study aims to tackle the exiting limitations in definition and operationalization of individual-based home range models and provide a more robust solution for their evaluation and comparison. Using data collected through public participation GIS we develop an applied, dynamic, and parametric model of individual home ranges. Subsequently, we propose multiple criteria comprising five validation hypotheses to evaluate model's effectiveness. We argue that application of this approach in evaluating spatial delimitation models can ameliorate the risk of biased validation resulting from inferential errors. The evaluation results indicate a substantial improvement in coverage of visited points compared to previously used static methods. Consequently, this paper draws a number of conclusions that can serve as guidelines for future research. This paper highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed method and explains how it can be improved and employed in future studies investigating contextual effects on residents.     

环渤海湾海洋资源环境承载力定量研究

环渤海湾地区经济发展迅速但开发利用过度,生态问题突出。本文以社会环境学理论、系统论、可持续发展理论等为基础,建立了环渤海湾海洋资源环境承载力评价指标体系,利用单项评价法,以地级市为基本单位对环渤海湾地区的海洋资源环境承载力进行评价。结果表明滨州市的海洋资源环境承载力较好,其次为唐山市和天津市,沧州市的海洋资源环境承载力较弱。     

中国地震台网各类前兆手段地震监测能力的评价

利用1988～2005年18年间全国会商会所提出的各类定点前兆异常,研究其与下一年(1989～2006年)大陆地震的对应关系,从414次地震资料的统计中得出,除地下水位和地磁外,其它5种前兆观测手段在有震区的异常比均低于无震区或全大陆的异常比,但各手段综合异常比在有震区要高于无震区。遵照"地震监测能力好的前兆手段,在其监测范围内,有震时应有较高的异常比,无震时应有较低的异常比"的原则,我们认为地磁和地下水位是比较好的前兆观测方法。     

福建龙岩马坑铁矿浅部矿床详细技术经济评价

本文以马坑铁矿浅部矿床为例,论述了矿床技术经济评价的基本方法。作者的研究表明,马坑铁矿浅部矿床的开发建设,在地质上是可能的,技术和经济上也是可行,合理的。