2020年4月20日磁暴恢复相期间舌状中性结构的垂直变化

在发生于2020年4月20日的地磁暴恢复相阶段, GOLD(Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk)成像仪在第112天(day of year, DOY 112)中低纬地区观测到氧原子(O)和氮气分子(N₂)的柱密度比(ΣO/N₂)的舌状中性结构(TON).TON结构一般指发生于中高纬且形成于两个ΣO/N₂暴时衰减结构之间的ΣO/N₂增强结构.热层-电离层电动力学大气环流模式(Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, TIEGCM)定性地模拟再现了在本次磁暴恢复相期间观测到的ΣO/N₂增强结构, 并且发现这个结构在前一天(DOY 111)当地下午形成, 通过中性风的输运被逐渐耗散.模拟结果呈现了不同高度O/N₂的TON结构的垂直变化, 其强度和纬度范围有明显的高度依赖性, 并且随磁暴演化不断变化.诊断分析表明: 下沉流(downwelling)驱动的垂直输运首先导致较低纬(约30°N—70°N)O/N₂的增强, 然后通过极向风驱动的水平输运将其向更高纬地区输运.在中低热层(约120~300 km高度), 主导O/N₂的TON结构演化的中低纬极向风主要是由气压梯度力导致的, 同时科里奥利力对极向风也有一定的正贡献.而在约300 km高度以上的高热层, 极向风主要由气压梯度力和与其作用相反的垂直黏性力两项控制.

     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

我国地形与暴雨的若干气候统计分析

本文以详实的资料，通过对我国不同的地区，不同地形特征的暴雨分析后，得出了地形对暴雨影响的若干气候统计特征。     

冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际变化及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系

文中研究了冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年际异常及其与500hPa高度以及热带和北太平洋海温的联系。结果发现,各年冬季北太平洋风暴轴的中心强度和位置具有显著的年际差异。对15个冬季北太平洋风暴轴区域500hPa天气尺度滤波位势高度方差与热带和北太平洋海温的SVD分析表明,第一对空间典型分布反映了赤道中、东太平洋区域海温异常对风暴轴年际变化的影响,而第二对空间典型分布反映了黑潮区域海温异常对风暴轴年际变化的影响。进一步的合成分析显示,赤道中、东太平洋区域海温异常主要影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴的东西摆动和中、东端的强度变化,而黑潮区域海温异常则主要影响冬季北太平洋风暴轴中、西端的强度变化和南北位移。并且这种影响分别与500hPa高度场上的PNA遥相关型和WP遥相关型有密切联系。     

冬季北太平洋风暴轴异常及其与东亚大气环流的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,应用滤波方差、相关分析、合成分析等研究了1963年冬季至2011年冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变特征,并探讨了风暴轴活动强弱与东亚—北太平洋大气环流的关系。结果表明：与1980s后期风暴轴活动显著增强相比,近10 a来风暴轴活动又进入较气候平均水平偏低的阶段,且风暴轴主体位置有着向东北、西南两侧的振荡现象。风暴轴活动强（弱）年,东亚地区近地面温度偏高（低）、对流层低层阿留申低压和西伯利亚高压偏弱（强）、中国东部及日本上空850 hPa北风减弱（加强）;对流层中层东亚大槽减弱北缩（加深南进）、对流层高层西风急流减弱（加强）。风暴轴活动与冬季影响中国的冷空气活动次数相关关系显著。     

Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies.     

Physical criteria for distinguishing sandy tsunami and storm deposits using modern examples

Modern subaerial sand beds deposited by major tsunamis and hurricanes were compared at trench, transect, and sub-regional spatial scales to evaluate which attributes are most useful for distinguishing the two types of deposits. Physical criteria that may be diagnostic include: sediment composition, textures and grading, types and organization of stratification, thickness, geometry, and landscape conformity.

Published reports of Pacific Ocean tsunami impacts and our field observations suggest that sandy tsunami deposits are generally < 25 cm thick, extend hundreds of meters inland from the beach, and fill microtopography but generally conform to the antecedent landscape. They commonly are a single homogeneous bed that is normally graded overall, or that consists of only a few thin layers. Mud intraclasts and mud laminae within the deposit are strong evidence of tsunami deposition. Twig orientation or other indicators of return flow during bed aggradation are also diagnostic of tsunami deposits. Sandy storm deposits tend to be > 30 cm thick, generally extend < 300 m from the beach, and will not advance beyond the antecedent macrotopography they are able to fill. They typically are composed of numerous subhorizontal planar laminae organized into multiple laminasets that are normally or inversely graded, they do not contain internal mud laminae and rarely contain mud intraclasts. Application of these distinguishing characteristics depends on their preservation potential and any deposit modifications that accompany burial.

The distinctions between tsunami and storm deposits are related to differences in the hydrodynamics and sediment-sorting processes during transport. Tsunami deposition results from a few high-velocity, long-period waves that entrain sediment from the shoreface, beach, and landward erosion zone. Tsunamis can have flow depths greater than 10 m, transport sediment primarily in suspension, and distribute the load over a broad region where sediment falls out of suspension when flow decelerates. In contrast, storm inundation generally is gradual and prolonged, consisting of many waves that erode beaches and dunes with no significant overland return flow until after the main flooding. Storm flow depths are commonly < 3 m, sediment is transported primarily as bed load by traction, and the load is deposited within a zone relatively close to the beach.     

Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS)

Balloon-borne electric field soundings and lightning mapping data have been analyzed for three of the storms that occurred in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study field program in 2000 to determine if the storms had inverted-polarity electrical structures. The polarities of all or some of the vertically stacked charge regions in such storms are opposite to the polarities observed at comparable heights in normal storms. Analyses compared the charge structures inferred from electric field soundings in the storms with charges inferred from three-dimensional lightning mapping data. Charge structures were inferred from electric field profiles by combining the one-dimensional approximation of Gauss's law with additional information from three-dimensional patterns in the electric field vectors. The three different ways of inferring the charge structure in the storms were found to complement each other and to be consistent overall. Charge deposition by lightning possibly occurred and increased the charge complexity of one of the storms.Many of the cloud flashes in each case were inverted-polarity flashes. Two storms produced ground flash activity comprised predominantly of positive ground flashes. One storm, which was an isolated thunderstorm, produced inverted-polarity cloud flashes, but no flashes to ground. The positive and negative thunderstorm charge regions were found at altitudes where, respectively, negative and positive charge would be found in normal-polarity storms. Thus, we conclude that these storms had anomalous and inverted-polarity electrical structures. Collectively, these three cases (along with the limited cases in the refereed literature) provide additional evidence that thunderstorms can have inverted-polarity electrical structures.     

冬季北太平洋风暴轴纬向变化特征及其与我国极端低温频次的可能联系

采用NCEP/NCAR和ERA40再分析资料,分析了垂直方向上冬季北太平洋风暴轴纬向结构的时空演变特征,揭示了北太平风暴轴纬向结构具有显著年际、年代际变化特征。冬季北太平洋风暴轴纬向结构主要呈现出全区一致、东西反相两种分布型("A"型和"B"型),细分为整体一致性强型("A+"型)、整体一致性弱型("A-"型)、东弱西强型("B+"型)和东强西弱型("B-"型)。研究表明:冬季北太平洋风暴轴的纬向结构与我国极端低温频次的关系密切,风暴轴呈"A+"("A-")型纬向结构时,我国整体区域极端低温频次偏少(多);风暴轴呈"B+"("B-")纬向结构时,我国全区极端低温频次偏多(少)。