An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent,West Indies

The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.     

Kinematic Modeling of Pyroclastic Flows Produced by Gravitational Dome Collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Volcanic activity commenced 18 July 1995 at SoufriereHills volcano and has led to the creation of a newlava dome, which has repeatedly collapsed between 1996and 1999 resulting in highly mobile pyroclastic flows. The majority of associated pyroclastic flow phenomenaare consistent with initiation by gravitationalcollapse as blocks fall from oversteepened flanks ofthe new dome. If gravity controls the energy transferof such collapses, then areas likely to be affectedcan be predicted on the basis of topography. We focuson `dense' flows initiated by non-explosive,gravitational collapse (`Merapi-type' pyroclasticflows) and employ a graphical computer model (Flow3D)written to simulate this type of volcanic flow. Theprogram constructs a digital terrain model based upona 3D network of (x, y, z) triplets, which serves as thebasis for the numerical computations. A synthetic domewas added to the topographic model to improve theaccuracy of the simulations. After estimating thesmall number of key adjustable parameters, simulatedflow pathways, runout distances, and velocitiesclosely approximated observed Merapi-type pyroclasticflows on Montserrat. These simulations demonstrate thevalidity of a simple kinematic method to model densepyroclastic flow phenomena. While the simulationspresented here do not elucidate additional physics ofpyroclastic flow phenomena, this type of modeling canbe completed easily and without extensivea priori knowledge of volcano-specific parameters otherthan topography. Accordingly, it may serve as a rapidand inexpensive first-order approach for initialhazard assessment.     

The relationship between degassing and ground deformation at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

We examine the correlations between SO₂ emission rate, seismicity and ground deformation in the month prior to the 25 June 1997 dome collapse of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. During this period, the volcano exhibited a pattern of cyclic inflation and deflation with an 8–14 h period. We find that SO₂ emission rates, measured by COSPEC, correlate with the amplitude of these tilt cycles, and that higher rates of SO₂ emission were associated with stronger ground deformation and enhanced hybrid seismicity. Within tilt cycles, degassing peaks coincide with maximum deformation gradients. Increases in the amount of gas in the magma conduit feeding the dome, probably due to increases in volatile content of ascending magma volume can account for the observed increases in tilt amplitude, hybrid seismicity and SO₂ emission rate.