Assessment of seismic hazard for the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy — A summary

The working group on Test Regions for Evaluation of Methods for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe (TERESA), consisted of 15 members from 10 different European countries. Methods and experience gathered in these countries have been compared and discussed for two test areas in Europe: the Sannio-Matese region, Southern Italy, with high seismic activity, and the border region between Belgium, The Netherlands, and Federal Republic of Germany, with low activity.This paper summarizes the results for one of the test areas, Sannio-Matese. Most of the participants used statistical procedures to assess earthquake hazard, receiving results in terms of probability of occurrence for intensity as the ground-motion parameter. It was found that careful preparation of input data and parameters is the major influencing factor, therefore most of the efforts of the working group was devoted to this task.The scatter of the obtained results of the group is considerable, mainly because of the uncertainties in the data and the subjectiveness involved in the procedures. For better control of both factors, more objective methods have to be developed.     

Seismic hazard assessments for two test areas — ‘Southern Italy’ and ‘Belgium—The Netherlands—Germany’

Within the activity of the ESC Subcommission 8 Engineering Seismology, Project TERESA, seismic hazard calculations have been performed for two areas of a different earthquake activity. Fundamental seismological data (earthquake catalogues, macroseismic observations and maps) and some additional geological information were analyzed and processed to prepare inputs for hazard computations. Great attention has been paid to verifying the reliability of the input data. Seismic hazards obtained for five sites of the region of high seismic activity (Sannio-Matese, southern Italy) and six sites of the region of low seismic activity (Brabant Massif and northern Rhine, Belgium—The Netherlands—Germany) are presented and discussed.     

Critical parameter investigation for earthquake hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

Probabilistic methods have been applied for the assessment of seismic hazard in a selected region of Southern Italy (Sannio-Matese). This method is mainly suitable for engineering and planning purposes and was first introduced in 1968 by Cornell and efficiently codified into a FORTRAN computer program by McGuire. Special attention is paid in this paper to the specific input parameters, i.e. completeness of data catalogues, time variability of seismic activity, different forms of frequency distributions, and regional attenuation characteristics.     

Seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area of Italy

The assessment of seismic hazard at five selected sites in the Sannio-Matese region is based on the computer program SRAMSC. Owing to the extensive historical data base for the output parameter, the MSK intensiy is chosen. The seismicity model is made up of five narrow area seismic sources. Circular or elliptical macroseismic fields are assigned to individual sources. A generalized Kövesligethy equation is used for this purpose as the attenuation relationship. The study reveals similar and a rather high hazard at the sites at Benevento, Boiano, and Melfi, which are located in the zone of highest seismic activity. At the Pomigliano and Lucera sites, the assessed hazard is much lower.     

Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique

A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models.The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals.It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.