渤海湾及其附近海域沉积物中Cu,Pb,Zn,Cd环境背景值的研究

根据渤海湾及其毗邻河口区10柱岩芯样细颗粒（＜0．063mm）（GF 1983－1985年采集）中重金属含量特点，结合^216Pb年代学编年资料，用未受人类影响沉积层中元素含量，藉统计学方法获得渤海湾岩芯样中Cu，Pb，Zn，Cd的分布类型，并根据各区重金属的含量水平，用t检验法获得了渤海湾Cu，Pb，Zn，Cd的环境背景值。     

中国陆架海绿石分布特征及其意义

本文根据实际资料,简要概括了中国大陆架海绿石的分布规律和形成环境。海绿石的富集区与氧化环境,粗粒沉积和残留沉积区相一致。该研究为恢复古沉积环境提供了依据。     

The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined.     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Verification of significant wave representation method

The significant wave representation method is the simplest method for computing the transformation of significant wave height across-shore. However, many engineers are reluctant to use this method because many researchers have pointed out that the method possibly contains a large estimation error. Nevertheless, Rattanapitikon et al. [Rattanapitikon, W., Karunchintadit, R., Shibayama, T., 2003. Irregular wave height transformation using representative wave approach. Coastal Engineering Journal, JSCE 45(3), 489–510.] showed that the wave representation method could be used to compute the transformation of root mean square wave heights. It may also be possible to use it for computing the significant wave height transformation. Therefore, this study was carried out to examine the possibility of simulating significant wave height transformation across-shore by using the significant wave representation method. Laboratory data from small- and large-scale wave flumes were used to calibrate and examine the models. Six regular wave models were applied directly to irregular waves by using the significant wave height and spectral peak period. The examination showed that three regular wave models (with new coefficients) could be used to compute the significant wave height transformation with very good accuracy. On the strength of both accuracy and simplicity of the three models, a suitable model is recommended for computing the significant wave height transformation. The suitable model was also modified for better predictions. The modified model (with different coefficients) can be used to compute either regular wave height or significant wave height transformation across-shore.     

近44年无锡寒潮天气变化特征分析

利用无锡市1959～2002年共44a的逐日最低气温资料,分析了无锡寒潮发生的特点.分析结果表明:无锡寒潮的年发生次数有线性减少趋势;寒潮减少主要发生在10月、12月、4月.分年代看,从20世纪60年代到80年代逐年代减少,但90年代又增多.寒潮减少与降温幅度减小、最低气温升高有关,其中最低气温升高是其主要影响因素.特征区域的500 hPa高度场偏高是寒潮发生次数减少的直接原因.最后,针对多寒潮年和少寒潮年的环流特点,给出了500 hPa典型距平场特征.     

基于BSR的AVO正演估算水合物含量方法的研究

水合物地震属性研究的一个基本目标是水合物/游离气含量的估算. 这项工作的难度体现在地震反演具有多解性. 这项工作涉及到地震数据的精细处理、速度分析和BSR界面AVO分析等多个具体环节. 本文继承前人的有关成果,尝试进行了水合物/游离气含量估算方法的研究. 以区域地质、地震和化探等多元方法信息为基础,以定性推断BSR以及BSR界面AVO性质为导向,通过AVO正演模型方法,半定量（或定量）地估算BSR界面上与下地层中水合物/游离气（或水合物/水合物）的含量. 运用这种方法,结合海上有利于天然气水合物的E研究区某测线地震资料,尝试估算了BSR界面之上和之下介质中水合物/游离气的含量.     

Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming

本文利用8个CMIP5模式的日资料,预估了RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全球增温达1.5℃和2.0℃时西北太平洋夏季30～60天和10～20天季节内振荡(ISO)强度的变化情况.大多数模式都认为,无论增温水平或情景如何,预估结果均显示从中南半岛南部到菲律宾以东的带状区域内ISO强度增加,并且关键气象要素背景的变化会对...     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.