A study on quality of aquatic environment in Tumen River Area

After the survey of pollution sources, a study on surface water quality assessment and forecast is given by means of grey system method, fuzzy mathematical method and multiple-index method. Based on it, aquatic environment quality features, treatment measures and environmental strategies of the area are proposed. The quality of aquatic environment of 5 rivers in the Tumen River area is studied. The results show that the pollution of surface water is serious; water quality of most rivers is between grade IV and V except the Hunchun River, being higher than grade IV standard; pollution levels of most rivers have been basically controlled except the of Burhatong River, which is deteriorating gradually. Pollutants of the rivers are comparatively regular, mainly are SS, COD, BOD, AR-OH, NH₃-N. The main pollution trades are chemical fibre industry, pulp and paper making industry and mining industry. If the growth rate of gross industrial product is higher than 25 percent under the encouraging-model of regional exploitation, the pollutants’ load will overtake the bearing capacity of aquatic environment. Thus some protection program against pollution must be worked out in order to achieve the harmonious development of economy society and environment. A project from “Studies on Earlier Stage of Regional Development” of the Chinese Academy of Sciences     

临猗5.0级地震前后品质因子值变化特征研究

利用西安数字地震遥测台网记录的数字地震资料，采用P波初动半周期残差法求得1998年7月临猗5．0级地震前后不同路径的Q(品质因子)值变化，发现在地震发生前Q值为87～203，震后Q值为67～164，震前震中区附近出现明显的高Q值异常。结果表明，地震前的高Q值异常可以作为地震预测的一种手段。     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China

This article gives a general introduction to land subsidence with the prediction approaches due to withdrawal of groundwater in three subsided/subsiding regions in China: the deltaic plain of Yangtse River (YRDP), North China Plain (NCP), and Fenwei Plain (FP). On YRDP, Shanghai is the typical subsided/subsiding city; on NCP Tianjin is the typical subsided/subsiding city, and on FP Taiyuan is the typical subsided/subsiding city. The subsided area with subsidence over 200 mm on YRDP is about 10,000 km² and the maximum subsided value reached 2.9 m at Shanghai; on NCP the subsided area reached 60,000 km² with the maximum subsidence of 3.9 m at Tianjing; on FP the subsided area is relatively smaller than that on the other two plains and is about 1,135 km² with maximum subsidence of 3.7 m at Taiyuan city. In order to protect the civil and industrial facilities, it is necessary to predict the future development of land subsidence based on present state. Many researchers proposed several approaches to predict the land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological conditions and groundwater withdrawal practice. This article classifies these approaches into five categories: (i) statistical methods; (ii) 1D numerical method; (iii) quasi-3D seepage model; (iv) 3D seepage model; (v) fully coupled 3D model. In China, the former four categories are presently employed in the prediction practice and their merits and demerits are discussed. According to the prediction practice, 3D seepage model is the best method presently.     

TBM在不良地质洞条件下的施工技术

TBM掘进机以其快速、高效、安全、优质等优点越来越广泛地被应用于隧洞开挖施工中,尤其更适用于深埋超长隧洞,然而在不良地质洞段中TBM掘进缓慢,甚至有卡刀可能,反而不如钻爆法灵活,这就需要根据围岩性状采取特殊技术处理措施,辅以监控量测手段对支护方案进行验证、调整支护措施、修正设计参数等。结合辽宁大伙房输水隧洞工程,总结了在不良地质洞条件下的超前地质预报方法、不良地质段处理措施以及围岩变形监测方法。     

PSO-RBFNN模型及其在岩土工程非线性时间序列预测中的应用

岩土工程受力变形演化是一个典型的非线性问题,其演化的高度非线性和复杂性,很难用简单的力学、数学模型描述,但可用粒子群优化径向基神经网络对岩土工程应力、位移非线性时间序列进行动态实时预测。网络径向基层的单元数通过均值聚类法确定后,所有其它参数：中心位置、形状参数、网络权值,均通过粒子群优化算法在全局空间优化确定。工程实例应用表明,该模型预测结果准确、精度高,有良好的应用前景。     

橄榄岩—熔体相互作用过程中Re-Os体系的变化趋势: 对华北新生代地幔橄榄岩Re-Os年龄含义的启示

橄榄岩的Re-Os同位素体系作为探讨岩石圈地幔形成年龄的重要手段已受到人们越来越多的重视。然而,Re-Os体系是否会受到橄榄岩的低温蚀变如蛇纹石化和地幔交代作用或橄榄岩—熔体相互作用的影响并不十分清楚。本文在总结国际上典型造山带橄榄岩剖面研究和地幔橄榄岩捕虏体研究的基础上,发现橄榄岩的Re-Os同位素体系基本不受蛇纹石化等低温蚀变作用的影响; 但橄榄岩—熔体相互作用会造成橄榄岩的Re-Os体系的变化即Re或Os的带入。当熔体/岩石比例较小时(≤1),橄榄岩—熔体相互作用会造成橄榄岩的Re含量显著增加,而放射成因的Os同位素即¹⁸⁷Os增量有限。但当熔体/岩石比例很大时(≥1),会造成¹⁸⁷Os同位素显著增加。同时,橄榄岩的Re含量与中等程度不相容主、微量元素如Al、Ti、Yb的正相关关系可以通过橄榄岩的两阶段演化模式来解释,即早期的部分熔融残留和后期的橄榄岩—熔体相互作用共同影响的结果。橄榄岩的Re含量与Cr含量的正相关关系进一步说明了这一问题。上述结果对华北东部岩石圈地幔的演化过程有重要的启示作用。因为华北东部古生代时期的确存在太古宙岩石圈地幔,然而新生代时期地幔橄榄岩捕虏体普遍具有元古宙而非太古宙的事实证明橄榄岩—熔体的相互作用的确广泛存在,从而造成岩石圈地幔橄榄岩变年轻。因此,新生代地幔捕虏体的Re-Os同位素年龄并不是岩石圈地幔的形成年龄,而是混合作用的结果。汉诺坝地幔橄榄岩的Re含量和Sr、Nd同位素组成符合橄榄岩—多元熔体相互作用的混合趋势,其橄榄岩的全岩Al₂O₃含量和橄榄石Fo的反相关性能够通过橄榄岩—熔体相互作用来解释。     

渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报

"十·五"期间,我国开展了三维海洋温度和海流数值预报的业务化研究工作.经过3年的努力,渤海三维海洋温度和海流数值预报系统研制完成,并于2003年10月,开始试预报.本文对该预报系统以及运行情况进行了介绍,并分析了所存在的问题和发展方向.     

卫星海洋遥感的发展和预报中心遥感应用

本文简要介绍了卫星海洋遥感的发展情况和可获得的海洋气象观测数据,介绍了预报中心卫星遥感的发展历史和现今状况,以及为海洋环境监测和预报提供的海洋遥感信息产品,并给出了部分产品示例.