重庆地面最高气温与最大风速年极值的渐近分布

利用重庆1951-1990年间地面最高气温和1956-1990年间地面最大风速年极值的记录,采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布分别对其渐近分布进行拟合.通过统计推断,找出重庆地面最高气温和地面最大风速年极值遵循的最佳渐近分布--韦伯分布.     

Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

WZY-1型钻参仪的研究与应用

分析了目前钻参仪未能普遍推广应用的原因。介绍了WZY－1型钻参仪的总体构成、测试参数、性能特点及其分别与钻机和水泵的一体化设计。     

Neuzeitlicher Schadstofftrend: Polycylische aromatische Kohlenwasserstoffe (PAK) in aquatischen und terrestrischen Sedimenten

A Recent Contamination Trend: Polycylic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Aquatic and Terrestrial Sediments Concentrations of polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) measured in aquatic sediments of small, medium‐sized or very large inland lakes, of estuaries as well as in terrestrial sediments from Germany, the UK, Finland, and the USA were plotted in 10 trend curves over the period from 1800 to 1990. The segments of the bore cores were dated for their deposition age. For comparability of the results, the trend is preferentially shown by the guide parameter fluoranthene. Until the 19th century, a constant background value of C_Fluo = 10…50 μg/kg was observed in all regions. Then a steep increase in concentration followed, reaching in the aquatic sediments a maximum in the period 1940 to 1965, while the individual fluoranthene values ranged widely from 90 to 2400 μg/kg. In several regions, a more or less distinct decrease superseded this maximum, although this development did not appear in terrestrial sediments, in one estuary, and in remote forest lakes in Finland. The trend curves reflect the atmospheric deposition of PAHs in airborne dust and in some cases the import through runoff via rivers. Thus, the sediment profiles depict the development of air pollution by pyrogenic contaminants over more than a century. Sediment profiles from rivers can be used only with a high degree of reservation, because of the irregularity and low representativity of the sedimentation.     

Vision-based tracking with projective mapping for parameter identification of remotely operated vehicles

Parameter identification of a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) is often based on the dynamic responses collected by its onboard sensors. However, for commercial ROVs, the required data for identification may not be available due to the absence of suitable sensors or limitations in accessing onboard sensor data. Therefore, this study proposes a vision-based tracking system to measure the dynamic response of an ROV. The tracking system is independent of the ROV, and is able to localize an ROV to a high degree of precision by means of projective mapping. The validity of the proposed tracking system is demonstrated through identification of a commercial ROV. A simplified nonlinear ROV dynamic model with six degrees of freedom (DOF) is used for identification. Uncoupled motions, including surge, sway, and yaw, are obtained from the ROV dynamic model, and the corresponding experiments are carried out for each DOF. Hydrodynamic parameters are then estimated with numerical optimizations by comparing the measured ROV responses with the output of the mathematical model. The experimental results show that the vision-based tracking system can accurately measure the transient and steady-state responses of an ROV. Additionally, the simulations of the ROV dynamic model, with the optimal parameter estimates, give results in agreement with the measured data.     

Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: Application to skipjack tuna

A Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamic Model (SEAPODYM) is used in a data assimilation study aiming to estimate model parameters that describe dynamics of Pacific skipjack tuna population on ocean-based scale. The model based on advection–diffusion–reaction equations explicitly predicts spatial dynamics of large pelagic predators, while taking into account data on several mid-trophic level components, oceanic primary productivity and physical environment. In order to improve its quantitative ability, the model was parameterized through assimilation with commercial fisheries data, and optimization was carried out using maximum likelihood estimation approach. To address the optimization task we implemented an adjoint technique to obtain an exact, analytical evaluation of the likelihood gradient. We conducted a series of computer experiments in order to (i) determine model sensitivity with respect to variable parameters and, hence, investigate their observability; (ii) estimate observable parameters and their errors; and (iii) justify the reliability of the computed solution. Parameters describing recruitment, movement, habitat preferences, natural and fishing mortality of skipjack population were analysed and estimated. Results of the study suggest that SEAPODYM with achieved parameterization scheme can help to investigate the impact of fishing under various management scenarios, and also conduct forecasts of a given species stock and spatial dynamics in a context of environmental and climate changes.     

丁字湾增殖中国对虾适宜量的研究

丁字湾位于山东省海阳、莱阳、即墨三市交界处,面积为１３０ｋｍ２。该海湾局封闭式内湾,不易受风浪影响,地势平坦,潮间带宽阔,水深较浅,最深处１０ｍ。湾内水质肥沃,营养丰富,中国对虾（Ｐｅｎａｅｕｓ　ｃｈｉｎｅｎｓｉｓ喜食的寻氏肌蛤、鸭嘴蛤资源丰厚。该湾春季有亲虾产卵繁殖,６,７月份有幼对虾分布,是进行对虾增殖的优良海湾。但因受饵料和空间等制约,放流数量并非可以无限增加,据１９８８～１９９２年对丁字湾中国对虾放流增殖适宜量的研究表明,随放流数量增加,对虾个体变小,生长减慢,自然死亡率上升。因此,放流…     

框架结构的串联多自由度简化体系等效刚度参数的识别法

地框架结构和高耸建筑物进行地震反应分析时它常常被简化为串联多自由度体系。本文对此体系的刚度参数提出了一般的计算方法－参数识别法。