Fuzzy set approaches to classification of rock masses

Rock mass classification is analogous to multi-feature pattern recognition problem. The objective is to assign a rock mass to one of the pre-defined classes using a given set of criteria. This process involves a number of subjective uncertainties stemming from: (a) qualitative (linguistic) criteria; (b) sharp class boundaries; (c) fixed rating (or weight) scales; and (d) variable input reliability. Fuzzy set theory enables a soft approach to account for these uncertainties by allowing the expert to participate in this process in several ways. Hence, this study was designed to investigate the earlier fuzzy rock mass classification attempts and to devise improved methodologies to utilize the theory more accurately and efficiently. As in the earlier studies, the Rock Mass Rating (RMR) system was adopted as a reference conventional classification system because of its simple linear aggregation.

The proposed classification approach is based on the concept of partial fuzzy sets representing the variable importance or recognition power of each criterion in the universal domain of rock mass quality. The method enables one to evaluate rock mass quality using any set of criteria, and it is easy to implement. To reduce uncertainties due to project- and lithology-dependent variations, partial membership functions were formulated considering shallow (<200 m) tunneling in granitic rock masses. This facilitated a detailed expression of the variations in the classification power of each criterion along the corresponding universal domains. The binary relationship tables generated using these functions were processed not to derive a single class but rather to plot criterion contribution trends (stacked area graphs) and belief surface contours, which proved to be very satisfactory in difficult decision situations. Four input scenarios were selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach in different situations and with reference to the earlier approaches.     

Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.     

Assessing potential land suitable for surface irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia

Although Ethiopia has abundant land for irrigation, only a fraction of its potential land is being utilized. This study evaluates suitability of lands for irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia using GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques in order to enhance the country's agricultural industry. Key factors that significantly affect irrigation suitability evaluated in this study include physical land features (land use, soil, and slope), climate (rainfall and evapotranspiration), and market access (proximity to roads and access to market). These factors were weighted using a pair-wise comparison matrix, then reclassified and overlaid to identify suitable areas for groundwater irrigation using a 1-km grid. Groundwater data from the British Geological Survey were used to estimate the groundwater potential, which indicates the corresponding irrigation potential for major crops. Results indicated that more than 6 million ha of land are suitable for irrigation in Ethiopia. A large portion of the irrigable land is located in the Abbay, Rift Valley, Omo Ghibe, and Awash River basins. These basins have access to shallow groundwater (i.e., depth of groundwater less than 20 m from the surface) making it easier to extract. The comparison between available groundwater and total crop water requirements indicate that groundwater alone may not be sufficient to supply all suitable land. The study estimates that only 8% of the suitable land can be irrigated with the available shallow groundwater. However, groundwater is a viable option for supplementing surface water resources for irrigation in several basins in the country.     

基于ArcGIS的多准则地震应急避难所选址规划研究

地震是极其严重的自然灾害,有可能造成重大伤亡和经济损失。由于城市中人口高度聚集,地震发生时,需将受灾居民快速疏散至应急避难所,因此,应急避难所选址的合理性至关重要。本文提出1种可用于解决选址问题的多准则选址模型,并提出了求解模型的方法。该方法分为3个步骤,首先选择候选应急避难所,其次分析候选避难所的服务范围,最后确定应急避难所的位置。通过案例研究,论证了多准则选址模型在地震应急避难所规划中的有效性。     

Management priorities for seawater desalination plants in a marine protected area: A multi-criteria analysis

The development of seawater desalination plants to increase water reliability in coastal areas poses a threat to the health of near shore marine ecosystems and may affect the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs) that have been established to meet international conservation targets. This paper applies a multi-criteria analysis approach to quantify stakeholder groups’ priorities for seawater desalination plants that have been proposed in communities adjacent to a National Marine Sanctuary. All groups placed the highest importance on minimizing environmental impacts on protected areas and endangered species that could be affected by water intake and brine discharge emphasizing the need for integrated land and sea conservation. Minimizing socio-economic impacts on coastal communities was much less important. Stakeholders also weighted reducing pressure on water levels in rivers, streams, and aquifers as more important than increasing water for residential consumption, which may foster coastal growth rather than replacing water taken from other sources. The study further revealed differences in the importance of multiple management objectives among stakeholder groups, which highlights the need to elicit distinct priorities of all groups to understand concerns and potential conflicts of desalination with existing marine users. The analysis of consistency ratios revealed that around half of all surveyed stakeholders had high inconsistencies in their responses, which suggests either a lack of understanding of desalination, or reflects the complexity of establishing desalination plants in coastal areas adjacent to a marine protected area.     

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.     

Landform instability and land-use dynamics in tropical high mountains, Central Mexico

This investigation is an analysis of the influence of landform instability on the distribution of land-use dynamics in a hydrographical basin, located in the Mexican Volcanic Belt mountain range (central Mexico), currently affected by substantial changes in land use and deforestation. A landform map was produced, in addition to seven attribute maps - altimetry, drainage density, slope, relief energy, potential erosion, geology and tectonics - which were considered as factors for determining landform instability through Multi-criteria Evaluation Analysis. Likewise, the direction and rhythm of land-use dynamics were analyzed in four dates - between 1976 and 2000 - and cross tabulations were made between them, in order to analyze the trends and processes of land-use dynamics. Afterwards, the databases obtained were cross tabulated with the landform variables to derive areas, percentages and correlation indices. In the study area, high-instability landforms are associated with most ancient volcanic and sedimentary landforms, where high altitude, drainage density, slope and potential to develop gravitational and fluvial processes are the major factors favouring a land-use pattern, dominated by the conservation of extensive forest land, abandonment of human land use and regeneration of disturbed areas. In contrast, low-instability landforms correspond to alluvial plains and lava hills covered by pyroclasts, where low potential erosion to develop fluvial processes, added to water and soil availability and accessibility, have favoured a land-use pattern dominated by the expansion of agroforestry plantations and human settlements, showing a marked trend towards either intensification or permanence of the current land use and with little abandonment and regeneration.     

Negative-emissions technology portfolios to meet the 1.5 °C target

Our carbon-intensive economy has led to an average temperature rise of 1 °C since pre-industrial times. As a consequence, the world has seen increasing droughts, significant shrinking of the polar ice caps, and steady sea-level rise. To stall these issues’ worsening further, we must limit global warming to 1.5 °C. In addition to the economy’s decarbonization, this endeavour requires the use of negative-emissions technologies (NETs) that remove the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, from the atmosphere. While techno-economic feasibility alone has driven the definition of negative-emissions solutions, NETs’ diverse, far-reaching implications demand a more holistic assessment. Here, we present a comprehensive framework, integrating NETs’ critical performance aspects of feasibility, effectiveness, and side impacts, to define the optimal technology mix within realistic outlooks. The resulting technology portfolios provide a useful new benchmark to compare carbon avoidance and removal measures and deliberately choose the best path to solve the climate emergency.     

Emergency management evaluation by a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system

Emergency risk management (ERM) is a process which involves dealing with risks to the community arising from emergency events. Emergency management evaluation as one of the important parts of ERM aims assessing and improving social preparedness and organizational ability in identifying, analyzing, and treating emergency risks. This study first develops an emergency management evaluation model. It then proposes an extended fuzzy multi-criteria group evaluation method, which can deal with both subjective and objective criteria under multi-levels by a group of evaluators, for emergency management evaluation. A fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system (FMCGDSS) is then developed to implement the proposed method for the case of emergency operating center/system evaluation.     

Predictive mapping for copper–gold magmatic-hydrothermal systems in NW Argentina: Use of a regional-scale GIS, application of an expert-guided data-driven approach, and comparison with results from a continental-scale GIS

Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are very useful tools for managing, checking, and organizing spatial information–from many sources and of many types–in thematic layers. Processing of these data enables exploration-oriented GISs to produce potential and predictive maps for a given commodity, which constitute documents of real use in decision-making. Integration of all information in a single reference system enables a better understanding of the parameters controlling a region's metallogeny, in terms of both time and space. But what scale should be used for developing a mineral exploration GIS? Should preference be given to systems with high spatial resolutions (scale < 1:500,000), or to more general systems with scales of around 1:1,500,000 or 1:2,000,000? Will the gain be worthwhile relative to the additional work generated by compilation at a higher scale? In order to make greater use of previous predictive studies performed on gold-rich epithermal and porphyry systems at the scale of the entire Andes, an expert-guided data-driven approach is now applied to a regional-scale GIS of NW Argentina, between the Puna and the Sierrras Pampeanas, where known deposits like Bajo de la Alumbrera, Agua Rica, and others, account for a metal potential of over 10 Mt Cu and 750 t Au. In developing this new predictive map, three criteria that were likely to be connected to the mineralizing event were selected and quantified: (i) lithostratigraphy, because of its role as a favourable environment for the development of mineralization, based on its physico-chemical properties; (ii) lithostratigraphic contacts, based on the rheological properties of the formations in contact; and (iii) the orientation of structural discontinuities, which channel source magmas and encourage the circulation of hydrothermal fluids. Assigning a score enables classification of the favourabilities calculated for each of the criteria considered. This approach is employed here to check and standardize the statistical results obtained by methods such as Weight of Evidence Modelling or an algebraic approach. For each criterion, four classes were distinguished: very favourable: score = 3; favourable: score = 2; slightly favourable: score = 1; and unfavourable: score = 0. The predictive map is obtained by adding the scores for the three favourable criteria defined above.The regional-scale work identified 20 anomalous envelopes with cumulative scores greater than 5. They correspond to mining areas that are active (e.g., Bajo de la Alumbrera), under development (e.g., Agua Rica), or abandoned (e.g., La Mejicana), or to new areas (e.g., the Vicuña Pampa Volcanic Complex). Structural analysis of the region, integrating the orientation of the favourable envelopes, suggests that the mineralizing fluids were emplaced under extensional conditions, sub-parallel to the principal directions of shortening: (i) WNW–ESE, found along the southern edge of the Puna; and (ii) E–W, seen in the Sierra de Famatina. It appears that a regional-scale information system is a tool that is well suited to the definition of areas for mineral prospecting, and to the study and confirmation of metallotects usable for mineral exploration.Comparison with work conducted on the basis of a 1:2,000,000 geological compilation shows that the principal mining districts can indeed be found at continental scale. On the other hand, the lack of detail inherent at a scale of 1:2,000,000 may lead to inaccuracies, in particular fictitious favourabilities assigned to formations that are genetically unrelated to the mineralization, but that contain, for example, small Tertiary intrusive bodies that cannot be recorded at this scale. This comparison therefore shows that the use of a continental-scale GIS is effective, and well suited to the definition of prospective areas at a strategic level.