黄河三角洲*暴雨雷达回波特征及临近预报

本文利用1994－1998年东营站713数字化雷达回波资料结合高空、地面形势，对发生在黄河三角洲地区的33个暴雨日41个暴雨中尺度雷达回波系统特征及形成过程进行了总结，提出了暴雨临近预报的着眼点。在1999年的预报服务中，取得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。     

进入渤海的热带气旋路径特点分析

热带气旋是夏季影响渤海的灾害性天气系统之一。其影响路径主要有三类，各类路径在影响时前期中高纬500hPa高空环流形势及夏季西太平洋副热带高压特征指数有显著差异。     

套子湾表层沉积物地球化学特征的研究

本文对套子湾表层沉积物中的pH、Eh、硫化物、氮、磷、有机质、铜、铅、锌、镉地球化学特征进行了分析研究.并讨论了如下几个关系:①与沉积类型之间的关系;②其相关性与环境的关系。③与矿物的关系;④与水和风等作用的关系;⑤与水化学的关系;⑥重点分析了表层沉积物中化学要素与生物的相互关系。这不仅为该湾的开发治理.生物养殖等提供科学依据.并进一步证明沉积物地球化学.在环境化学和生态学研究等方面的理论意义。     

云南潞西大矿山铅锌矿

矿体产于花岗岩以上断层附近大理岩中,大理岩与花岗岩接触部位是主要的矿化部位,在大矿山、小石林、灰窑等地见有强褐铁矿化、弱铅锌矿化的厚大矿化层。通过勘查工作,认为矿区具有寻找中-大型规模矿山的前景。     

城市形象资源和地域文化传统特色研究

城市是人类的一种社会组织结构形式,与其他任何组织形式一样,城市的发展也需要核心竞争力,核心竞争力依赖于城市核心资源系统的开发和创造。通过城市形象的塑造再创城市新型的核心资源,这已经是一个既成事实,城市形象可以在更高层次保护城市传统资源要素,使其发挥更大的作用。     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

A laboratory experiment to monitor the contact state of a fault by transmission waves

We performed a series of laboratory experiments in which elastic waves were transmitted across a simulated fault. Two types of experiments were carried out: (1) Normal Stress Holding Test (NSHT): normal stress was kept constant for about 3 h without shear stress and transmission waves were observed. (2) Shear Stress Increasing Test (SSIT): shear stress was gradually increased until a stick-slip event occurred. Transmission waves were continuously observed throughout the process of stress accumulation. We focused on the change in transmission waves during the application of shear stress and especially during precursory slips.It was found in NSHT that the amplitude of transmission waves linearly increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time. The increase amounted to a few percent after about 3 h. Creep at asperity contacts is responsible for this phenomenon. From a theoretical consideration, it was concluded that the real contact area increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time.We observed in SSIT a significant increase in wave amplitude with shear stress application. This phenomenon cannot be attributed to the time effect observed in NSHT. Instead, it can be explained by the mechanism of “junction growth” proposed by Tabor. Junction growth yields an increase in real contact area. It is required for junction growth to occur that the material in contact is already plastic under a purely normal loading condition. A computer simulation confirmed that this requirement was satisfied in our experiments. We also found that the rate at which the amplitude increased was slightly reduced prior to a stick-slip event. The onset time of the reduction well coincides with the onset of precursory slip. The cause of the reduction is attributed to the reset of stationary contact time due to displacement. This interpretation is supported by the result of NSHT. Taking the time of stationary contact in SSIT into account, we may expect the change in wave amplitude to be, at most, only a few percent. The observed slight reduction in increasing rate is, in this sense, reasonable. The static stiffness of the fault also decreases with precursory slip. It was also found that low frequency waves are a better indicator of precursory slip than high frequency waves. This might suggest that low frequency waves with longer wavelength are a better indicator of average behavior of faults. The problem, however, merits a further investigation. The shifts in phase were also found to be a good indicator of the change in contact state of the fault. The changes in both amplitude and phase of transmission waves are unifyingly understood through the theory of transmission coefficient presented by Pyrak-Nolte et al. Rough surfaces have a tendency to give larger stick-slips than smooth surfaces. The amount of precursory slip is larger for rough surfaces than for smooth surfaces. Although it was confirmed by a computer simulation that rough surfaces have larger contact diameters than smooth surfaces, the rigorous relationship between the surface roughness (contact diameter) and the amount of precursory slips was not established.     

普朗铜矿找矿标志及找矿模型

普朗铜矿矿体形态简单,以铜为主,伴生金、硫等多种有益组份。找矿标志为深大断裂旁侧的次级两组断裂交汇部位;特别是多种岩类的杂岩体,裂隙发育地段;斑岩体靠沟谷部位(负地形)等。土壤化探异常Cu>400×10-6和Mo>10×10-6异常叠加部位;视极化率大于10%的激电异常,磁异常约50～100nT的部位等。初步建立找矿模型,运用该模型,在矿区外围已发现普上、亚杂等一批铜(多金属)矿体,矿化体,具有明显的找矿指导意义。     

三种类型烃-烃不混溶包裹体组合的特征和热力学条件的计算

在自然界广泛分布着烃-烃不混溶体系中捕获的流体包裹体,由于这些包裹体具有复杂的组成和相态,因此不混溶包裹体组合的判别和热力学参数的计算常常难以进行。根据烃-烃不混溶体系中两个端员组分流体包裹体室温下的相态特征和在温度-压力平面图上等容线交点显示的位置,划分成三种类型流体包裹体组合,本介绍了三种类型流体包裹体组合特征,叙述了不混溶烃-烃包裹体组合的测定和判别方法,并且阐述均一化包裹体相态方程和气-液平衡常数原理和方法与此同时列举了自然界简单的三种类型不混溶烃-烃包裹体组合的测定、判别和计算的几个实例,利用相态方程和气-液平衡常数,不但精确地计算出包裹体均一压力,并且精确地计算出流体密度和体积等热力学参数。最后,利用均一成气相和液相的两种包裹体在 p-T 平面图上等容线交点同样计算出流体包裹体组合的捕获温度和压力。     

滇西北石鼓片岩变质变形特征及其划分

滇西北金沙江结合带东侧的石鼓变质岩系，可划分为石鼓岩群和巨甸岩群。石鼓岩群受区域动力热流变质作用改造，主期变形环境为中、深部构造相；巨甸岩群受区域低温动力变质作用改造，与之相伴的构造形迹属中、浅部构造相。石鼓岩群包含羊坡岩组和露西岩组，巨甸岩群可进一步划分为陇巴岩组和塔城岩组。同一岩群的岩组，变质作用、构造变形特征相同，但变质岩石组合及原岩特征却有明显差别。